CARLISLE – MARCH 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £233.50 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £599.85
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £853.40
Average Carlisle Placepot dividend in 2016: £409.85 (2 meetings)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Divine Port) & 2 (Baraka De Thaix)
Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Baby Bach) & 2 (Dakota Grey)
Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Pistol), 2 (Isscastown Lad & 1 (Gevrey Chambertin)
Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Mumgos Debut), 7 (Fly Home Harry) & 9 (Runswick Relax)
Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Superior Command) & 1 (Sean Ban)
Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Verko), 3 (Tipsy Dara), 1 (Swing Hard) & 4 (Pay The King)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: Six-year-olds have secured four of the last six renewals of this 'hands and heels' contest, whilst six gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 11-3. DIVINE PORT possesses ticks in both boxes, whilst RHYTHM OF SOUND is the other six-year-old in the line-up, albeit Micky Hammond's bottom weighted raider fails the weight requirement. That said, Micky has his time in fine order whereby the Mahler gelding is not entirely ruled out of the equation at the overnight stage. BARAKA DE THAIX is the other horse to consider, though all three of David Pipe's representatives have been beaten at Carlisle this season, though David's five year figure of 4/16 at the track offers some encouragement.
Favourite factor: Only one (11/4) favourite has prevailed to date via eight renewals, whilst the other seven market leaders all failed to secure toteplacepot positions.
Carlisle record of course winners in the Opening event:
2/4--Divine Port (C&D winner)
2.35: Six-year-olds have won seven of the ten contests during the last 12 years, the first of which was dear old Monet’s Garden back in 2004. Vintage representatives are 2/1 to extend the trend before the form book is taken into account via the declarations of BABY BACK and TEN TREES. It was not a particularly difficult job to list the pair in order of preference. If the vintage is to be denied on this occasion, DAKOTA GREY is the potential 'spoiler' in the field from my viewpoint, especially given his perfect record at the track.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged in the last 12 years during which time, nine of the 12 jollies finished in the frame (exact science).
Carlisle record of course winners in the second race:
3.05: We have learned not to trust GEVREY CHAMBERTIN too much down the years and though I posted a warning about David Pipe's runners at the venue this year earlier in the analysis, it's difficult to completely rule David's eight-year-old out of the overnight mix. Before Tuesday's sport was contested, David boasted stats of 8/33 during the previous fortnight, a ratio which compares oh so favourably against the aggregate figures of 1/37 via the other five represented trainers. ISSACSTOWN LAD definitely possess ability under the saddle, though recent efforts have been disappointing. The handicapper is struggling to keep up with the progress made by PISTOL of late and with a seven pound claimer in the saddle, the official assessor might not have been let off the hook just yet.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Carlisle card.
Carlisle record of course winners in the third contest:
2/4--Knock A Hand
3.40: Eight-year-olds have won three of the five renewals thus far, and yet only Lucinda Russell is seemingly live to the 'edge' with her Royal Anthem raider MUMGOS DEBUT being the lone vintage representative this time around. Still a maiden following sixteen assignments, MUMGOS DEBUT has secured Placepot positions in six of his last eight sorties. Connections might have most to fear from RUNSWICK RELAX, FLY HOME HARRY and HARLEYS MAX at the business end of the contest. The latter named pair are seven-year-olds, vintage representatives having won the last two renewals.
Favourite factor: The five winners to date were returned at 25/1-9/1-9/1-15/2-11/4*, with favourites only snaring three toteplacepot positions thus far.
Carlisle record of course winners in the fourth event:
4.15: Seven-year-olds have secured four of the nine available toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include two of the four winners. Last year's lone 9/1 vintage raider failed to add to the positive figures. SUPERIOR COMMAND and SOLWAY PRINCE are this year's relevant declarations. The other trend to home in on is the fact that all four winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones thus far, stats which also brings SEAN BAN into the overnight equation.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners at 6/5 & 9/4.
Carlisle record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/2--Sean Ban (C&D winner)
4.50: This is as easy as any four runner 'win only' event as I have witnessed in a very long time. All four declarations possess reasons why they should win which to a fashion, makes this the perfect toteplacepot finale. So much so, that I will reduce my general 20p permutation stake to 10p, in order to include all four entries into the overnight mix. If we clear the fifth race successfully, it will be great to watch the race in the knowledge that we have the dividend 'sewn up'. Out of interest, the marginal order is listed as VERKO, TIPSY DARA, SWING HARD and PAY THE KING, though not enough to eliminate any of the runners from my viewpoint. As I conclude this analysis, I note that we have made a small profit from Wednesday's sport. From little acorns....
Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale is another new event on the Carlisle programme.
Carlisle record of course winners in the sixth contest:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Carlisle card on Thursday:
6--Micky Hammond (Carlisle stats this season: 3/28)
3--Susan Corbett (0/2)
3--Donald McCain (3/22)
3--Alan Swinbank (3/7)
2--Stuart Coltherd (0/6)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (1/3)
2--David Pipe (0/3)
2--Nicky Richards (3/10)
2--Lucinda Russell (1/16)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
45 declared runners