Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Thursday May 11th

CHESTER – MAY 11 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last six years on day two:

2016: £30.40 (8 favourites – 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £10.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £21.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £16.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2012: £536.60 (7 favourites: No winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £9.40 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot divided: £104.12 - 40 favourites - 13 won - 16 placed - 11 unplaced

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Khairaat, 7 (Brorocco) & 1 (Berkshire)

Leg 2 (2.25): 4 (Poet’s Word) & 1 (Deauville)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Sharp Defence), 7 (Rebel De Lope) & 9 (Aventinus)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Tamleek), 2 (Cunco) & 1 (Count Octave)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Dahik) & 2 (Dragons Tail)

Leg 6 (4.35): 12 (Zamjar), 10 (Full Intention) & 15 (The Amber Fort)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eleven renewals of this event, though four-year-olds have claimed four of the last six, with the relevant two entries attempting to land a hat trick between them on behalf of the vintage.  KHAIRAAT and BROROCCO are the horses in question with Sir Michael Stoute (KHAIRAAT) looking for compensation for last year’s beaten favourite in the contest.  The only five-year-old in the line up is Parish Boy who looks to have plenty to do via the form which suggests that BERKSHIRE (withdrawn from a race at Newmarket at the weekend) could be the main threat to the four-year-olds on parade.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame via twelve renewals, statistics which include two (11/2 & 9/4) winners.

Chester record of course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Mistiroc (good)

2/7—Sennockian Star (good to firm & good to soft)

1/2—Gabrial’s King (good)

 

2.25 (Huxley Stakes): I opened last year’s analysis with these words; Four-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen contests whereby I am 'baffled of Bristol' writing this column, with vintage representatives only conspicuous by their absence.  Things are much brighter this time around with vintage representatives of offer at 1/2 (before the form book is taken into consideration) with four relevant horses having been entered today.  It could be argued that DEAUVILLE only needs to repeat his effort in the ‘Gordon Richards’ at Sandown recently to go one better in a similar contest though that said, Sir Michael Stoute attempts to win his seventh Huxley Stakes winner having declared POET’S WORD. Sir Michael Stoute has a line on the Gordon Richards form line having saddled the winner of that event.  Throw Royal Artillery into the ring as well and we have a conundrum that I have yet to fully assess from a win perspective. The first named pair will represent yours truly given that Royal Artillery is asked to make up five lengths on Deauville via the Sandown contest, though I doubt there will be that much daylight between the pair at the business end of the race this time around.

Favourite factor: 16 of the last 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (10 winners).  12 of the last 18 gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

Chester record of course winners in the second race:

1/8—Gabrial (good to firm)

 

3.00: Ten of the last fifteen winners carried weights of nine stones or less, with SHARP DEFENCE, REBEL DE LOPE and (possibly) AVENTINUS representing yours truly from a Placepot perspective on Thursday.  The latter named Hugo Palmer raider has not been fortunate with the draw (10/11) which prevents me from backing the recent Lingfield winner from a win perspective, though a Placepot position might still be there for the taking.  The other pair are listed in marginal order of preference, with connections of all three runners fearing the John Gosden entry Via Egnatia more than most I’ll wager.  His trap one position gives John’s Newmarket winner a definite squeak, especially as the horse he trounced by seven lengths that day (Never Surrender) won here yesterday.  That said, I will adhere to my self-confessed ‘anorak tendency’ by nominating the sporting trio against the remaining eight entries.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in recent years, statistics which include six winners.  That said, the figures include both the 7/2 joint favourites who failed to trouble the judge twelve months ago.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs):

7-1-8 (9 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (8 ran-soft)

1-7-4 (8 ran-good)

1-3 (7 ran-soft)

4-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-12-10 (12 ran-good to soft)

3-4-2 (8 ran--good to firm)

6-9-11 (12 ran--good to firm)

7-10-2 (9 ran-good)

6-4 (6 Ran-good to soft)

2-4-8 (11 ran-good to soft)

2-9-4 (15 ran-good to soft)

12-6-5 (15 ran-good)

15-9-5-13 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-6-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-13-14-12 (18 ran-good)

5-2-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-7-6 (13 ran-good)

Chester record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Arc Royal (good)

 

3.35 (Chester Vase): Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last ten renewals and the trainer obviously intends to snare the swag here being responsible for four of the eight declarations.  I invariably question the thoughts of the trainer in such circumstances because I have to believe that Aidan is not convinced that he has a definite winner within the quartet, having paid the expenses for the others to travel over from Ireland.  Given that point, value for money might lie elsewhere, with TAMLEEK, CUNCO and COUNT OCTAVE waving the flag for the ‘home guard’.  Let’s go for it!

Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 15 years, statistics which include six (3/1-7/4- 6/4-11/8-10/11-4/9) winners.

 

4.05: Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, yet the trainer (unusually) is not represented on this occasion.  It could just be that Richard spied the Hamdan Al Maktoum raider DAHIK in the mix last weekend and thought better of taking on the Doncaster runner up.  The 11/8 quote in the trade press about Roger Varian’s Society Rock colt could look a shade fanciful come post time, with 10/11 on offer almost right across the board at the time of writing.  The differential between 11/8 and 10/11 might not look that wide, though the percentages equate to the same difference between a horse being backed in from 5/1 to 11/4.  If you are new to the racing game and want that differential explained, just send me a message via my Twitter page and I will be happy to oblige.  As for the potential danger to the projected favourite in this event, only DRAGONS TAIL makes any appeal in a race in which market leaders boast a fine record (see stats below).

Favourite factor: 17 of the 21 favourites during the last 18 years have finished in the frame (11 winners).

Draw factor (five furlongs):

9-3-12 (10 ran-good)

6-8-2 (9 ran-soft)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

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4-7-1 (9 ran-soft)

6-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-12 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-2-6 (11 ran--good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran--good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

5-4-14-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

3-5 (7 ran-soft)

5-14-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

11-12-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-11-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-7-6 (8 ran-good)

3-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

 

4.35: 12 of the previous 17 winners had carried weights of 9-0 or less which led yours truly to offer Justice Angel as the first horse to consider last year before David Elsworth’s representative won at 11/2.  Hoping for a repeat performance here, I’ll name ZAMJAR (drawn 1 of 13 remaining runners in the field), FULL INTENTION (6) and THE AMBER FORT (3) against the field.  The reserve nomination is awarded to TURANGA LEELA despite having been drawn in stall 12.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the study period.

Draw factor' (six furlongs):

5-6-7 (11 ran-good)

9-2-6 (12 ran-soft)

9-7-1 (12 ran-soft)

2-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-9-7 (11 ran-soft)

6-10-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-2-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

1-2-5 (11 ran--good to firm)

2-11-3 (12 ran--good to firm)

6-8-1 (10 ran-good)

9-4-6 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-13-7 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-6 (14 ran-soft)

1-4-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-6-8 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16-15 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-5-12 (16 ran-good)

9-11-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-12-8-6 (16 ran-good)

 

Chester record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Leontas (good)

1.1—Sayesse (good to soft)

1/1—Turanga Leela (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chester card on Thursday – followed by their figures at the track on Wednesday:

9 runners – Tom Dascombe (0/5 yesterday)

6—David Evans (1/4 – Profit of 1 point)

5—Richard Fahey (0/5)

5—Aidan O’Brien (0/1)

4—Mark Johnston (0/4)

3—Andrew Balding (1/3 – Profit of 14 points)

3—John Gosden (1/2 – Profit of 1 point)

3—Ian Williams (0/1)

2—Mick Channon (---)

2—Ed Dunlop (0/1)

2—David O’Meara (---)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/1)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (---)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £6.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Carlisle: £36.70 - 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Worcester: £112.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

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