AINTREE – APRIL 12
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £159.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 30.3% units went through – 5/1 & 4/1 (6/5)
Race 2: 91.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/11* - 7/2 – 25/1
Race 3: 35.7% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 2/1*
Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 8/1
Race 5: 13.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 7/1 – 40/1 (7/4)
Race 6: 41.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 15/2 – 6/1*
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Aintree:
Leg 1 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 3 (Cyrname)
Leg 2 (2.20): 7 (We Have A Dream) & 1 (Apples Shakira)
Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (Might Bite), 8 (Tea For Two) & 2 (Clan Des Obeaux)
Leg 4 (3.25): 3 (Cyrus Darius) & 9 (The New One)
Leg 5 (4.05): 14 (On The Fringe), 1 (Bainsalow), 9 (Grand Vision) & 20 (Wells De Lune)
Leg 6 (4.40): 8 (Kings Socks), 9 (Bun Doran), 10 (Doitforthevillage) & 13 (Baby King)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
1.45: Nicky Henderson is the only represented trainer to have won this race twice over thus far, with the Seven Barrows stable represented by BRAIN POWER on this occasion. Always wishing to impart with the truth however, Nicky’s 6/5 favourite in the race last year (Top Notch) missed out on a Placepot position. Paul Nicholls has dominated the first day of the meeting during the last seven years (though no gold medallists in each of the last two years), with Paul having saddled eight winners during the period. Paul has declared CYRNAME with definite claims, though Colin Tizzard has done his best to stop the ‘warmongers’ making this a two horse event by offering the green light to FINIAN’S OSCAR.
Favourite factor: The only successful favourite (via nine renewals) scored in 2013 at odds of 6/5, whilst five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far. All nine winners have scored at a top price of 11/2 to date.
Aintree record of course winners in the opening contest:
1/1—Finian’s Oscar (good)
2.20: Nicky Henderson's disappointing first day results in recent years were highlighted in this race three years ago when Nicky saddled the well beaten (4/6) market leader. Nicky saddled a 4/9 winner twelve months ago and the trainer plays a really strong hand here, having declared both WE HAVE A DREAM and APPLES SHAKIRA. Nicky’s latter named raider suddenly found himself outpaced having travelled well for a long way in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham last month and it remains to be seen if the addition of a hood will bring about a return to winning form. Accordingly, I have to lean towards WE HAVE A DREAM, particularly as Nicky swerved the trials and tribulations of Cheltenham, making his gelding a fresher horse in his attempt at landing a nap hand (five successive wins), albeit at the highest level. If there is a ‘dark horse’ to be aware of in the field, the French raider BEAU GOSSE looks the type to potentially fit the bill.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen contests, with eleven market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions. Ten winners during the last thirteen years were returned at 13/2 or less.
2.50: It remains to be seen if MIGHT BITE had had enough time to recover from his exploits in the Cheltenham Gold Cup which was the thick end of a month ago. How time flies when the rain pours leading to abandoned meetings! Thankfully, we have reasonable ground in Liverpool for the Grand National Festival which should ensure that Nicky Henderson’s beaten favourite has, at least, a chance of gaining compensation. That said, the more I look at the Cheltenham race, the conclusion occurs that the third horse would have beaten Might Bite in another 100 yards whereby an odds on price looks to skinny to take from my viewpoint. I appreciate his chance from a Placepot perspective however, though last year’s winner TEA FOR TWO and CLAN DES OBEAUX both offer some each way value at around the 14/1 mark.
Favourite factor: Just three favourites have prevailed during the last sixteen years though that said, thirteen winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less. Four of the last nine favourites have finished out of the frame.
Aintree record of course winners in the third race:
1/2—Definitly Red (heavy)
1/1—Might Bite (good)
1/2—Sizing Codelco (good)
1/2—Tea For Two (2 x good)
3.25: SUPASUNDAE ran well enough when outpointed in the ‘Stayers’ at Prestbury Park last month but at even money (thereabouts), Jessica Harrington’s raider is easily opposed. You can readily ignore the 20/1 trade press price about CYRUS DARIUS who could be backed into half of those odds if the current momentum is maintained later this morning. THE NEW ONE won this event four years ago and looks primed to go close at a track which suits the Twiston-Davies representative. My Tent Or Yours is another who will run his usual game race, likely as not.
Favourite factor: Only six favourites have won during the last 22 years, though 12 of the last 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Aintree record of course winners in the fourth even on the card:
1/1—Cyrus Darius (good to soft)
1/4—My Tent Or Yours (good to soft)
2/5—The New One (2 x good)
4.05: Luck in running is an obvious pre-requisite in this event but that said, favourites have a half decent record looking back over the last 24 years (see stats below). 13 of the last 15 winners have been aged in double figures, whereby my ‘short list’ consists of dual winner ON THE FRINGE (beaten at 7/4 in the race twelve months ago), BAINSALOW and GRAND VISION. If you are in need of a big priced winner after four luckless events, WELLS DE LUNE could give you a decent run for your money at around the 14/1 mark.
Favourite factor: Eleven favourites have won this event during the last 26 years during which time, 22 gold medallists have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less. Indeed, in a race which invariably looks difficult on paper, it's worth noting that five of the last seven winners have been returned at a top price of 4/1. That said, only five of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Aintree record of course winners in the fifth race:
2/3—On The Fringe (good to soft & soft)
4.40: Eleven of the last twelve (and 14 of the last 16) winners carried a maximum weight of 11-1, whereby KINGS SOCKS, BUN DORAN and DOITFORTHEVILLAGE form my overnight short list. The reserve nomination is awarded to BABY KING, a stable companion of last year’s beaten (placed) favourite BUN DORAN.
Favourite factor: Five market leaders have prevailed via the last sixteen contests, whilst 11 of the 18 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period. That said, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 33/1-25/1-20/1-20/1-16/1.
Aintree record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Theinval (good to soft)
1/1—The Flying Portrait (good)
1/1—Baby King (soft)
Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.15:
1/1—Posh Trish (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.