TAUNTON - DECEMBER 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £215.60 (8 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Taunton:
Leg 1 (12.00): 1 (Brahms De Clermont), 10 (Grapevine) & 2 (Parthenius)
Leg 2 (12.30): 7 (Dan Mcgrue) & 2 (Kings Ryde)
Leg 3 (1.05): 3 (Silent Steps), 5 (Bradford Bridge) & 4 (Never Learn)
Leg 4 (1.35): 1 (New Millennium), 9 (Status Quo) & 6 (Tobacco Road)
Leg 5 (2.10): 5 (Molineaux), 2 (The Welsh Paddies) & 14 (Padleyourowncanoe)
Leg 6 (2.45): 2 (Top Notch) & 4 (Max Ward)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.00: First and foremost, it will be interesting to read about the going later this morning because here in Bristol, we had a lot of rain yesterday evening. Keep your eyes peeled for news about the ground because if Taunton had as much of the wet stuff that we endured, ‘good’ will disappear from the going description when the COTC makes his announcement shortly before first light. BRAHMS DE CLERMONT will have the best of the ground in the opening event which might be just as well given his two good going successes to date. GRAPEVINE reached a heady official mark of 90 on the level which should put him there of thereabouts in this discipline, whilst Dan Skelton’s Plumpton winner was a soft ground winner back in Germany earlier in his career.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Taunton on Thursday
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
2/2—Brahms De Clermont (2 x good)
1/2—Show On The Road (good)
12.30: Paul Nicholls has secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety via seven contests to date. Paul saddles DAN MCGRUE this time around, though his old adversary Nicky Henderson (3/3 at the track this season) takes on his old rival on with KINGS RYDE. Alan King had saddled nineteen consecutive losers before notching a 59/1 Sandown double the other day and the trainer will be hoping that CANELO can continue the ‘recovery’.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (three beaten at odds on at 8/15, 4/6 & 5/6) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (two winners at 8/15 & 2/5).
1.05: A pig of a short field race to assess in all honesty, whereby it will come as no surprise if the poor record of favourites (albeit via just two renewals) continues. That said, it’s difficult to dismiss the Placepot chances of fancied types such as SILENT STEPS and BRADFORD BRIDGE, whilst adding Colin Tizzard’s ‘second string’ NEVER LEARN into the equation. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Both of the inaugural 3/1 joint favourites failed to complete the course, as did last year’s odds on favourite in a three horse event when failing to complete the course.
1.35: Something has to give on this card if the Placepot dividend is going to pay well and I’m going big and bold here by opposing Our Merlin, which some readers will argue against as Robert Walford’s hat trick seeker still receives weight from a few rivals despite being hit with a double penalty of late. Always looking for value, I’m opting for NEW MILLENNIUM, STATUS QUO and David Pipe’s recent course and distance winner TOBACCO ROAD to get us through to the fifth leg. The latter named Pipe raider is set to be ridden by Tom Scudamore who is riding with plenty of confidence these days. The older Tom gets, the more the ‘Scudamore stamp’ is in evidence, following in the illustrious footsteps of his father and grandfather. What caps it all, is that he seems like a ready decent chap too when interviewed.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot position by finishing second in their respective events.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/2—Tobacco Road (good)
1/2—Jaunty Inflight (good to firm)
2.10: Six-year-olds have won four of the six renewals thus far, with MOLINEAUX appearing to be the pick of the three vintage representatives on this occasion. The record of the six-year-olds is all the more impressive, given that lone representatives have lined up on the majority of occasions in the contest. THE WELSH PADDIES has to be included, whilst my trio against the field is completed by the recent soft ground Exeter winner PADLEYOUROWNCANOE.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions via six renewals, statistics which include three (9/2, 11/4 & 3/1**) winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/3—Garo De Juilley (good)
2/6—Heres Herbie (good & good to soft)
2.45: This is the Grade 2 ‘Peterborough Chase’ which was transferred onto this card after Huntingdon’s meeting was abandoned last weekend. Connections of TOP NOTCH will not have worried too much about the rain which was falling in the west-country last night and this wonderfully athletic six-year-old gelding will find these fences to his liking, bearing in mind that he was seen to be almost ‘hurdling’ the bigger obstacles at Ascot the last day which was breath-taking to witness. The trade press quote of 8/13 is fanciful in the extreme with 2/5 being the likely starting price. If the two prices do not seem to represent much of a difference to new readers, it’s as well to note that the differential is about the same as a horse being backed in from 9/1 to 4/1. Last year’s winner (stable companion) Josses Hill has also been declared, though I prefer the 22/1 chance MAX WARD as the forecast call, provided that the ground does not cut up too much prior to flag fall.
Favourite factor: Although only three favourites have prevailed during the last decade, nine of the winners scored at a top price of 15/2. Five of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Max Ward (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Taunton card on Thursday – followed by their stats at the track this season + Profits/losses accrued:
6—Paul Nicholls (3/10 – loss of 5 points)
6—Colin Tizzard (2/6 +5)
5—Nicky Henderson (3/3 +9)
5—David Pipe (1/8 +5)
4—Neil Mulholland (0/3)
3—Philip Hobbs (0/7)
3—Alan King (0/2)
3—Gary Moore (No previous runners this season)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (0/2)
3—Dan Skelton (0/3)
3—Tim Vaughan (0/6)
2—David Dennis (No previous runners)
2—Chris Down (0/5)
2—Alexandra Dunn (0/6)
2—Harry Fry (0/1)
2—Charlie Longsdon (No previous runners)
2—Richard Phillips (0/1)
2—Christian Williams (No previous runners)
2—Richard Woollacott (0/3)
+29 trainers with one runner on the card
89 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newcastle (NH): £51.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Warwick: £147.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Chelmsford: £176.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced