NEWBURY – JUNE 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £285.40 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 48.1% units went through – 80/1 – 3/1 – 5/2 (7/4)
Race 2: 93.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 – 4/7* - 14/1
Race 3: 29.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 11/4* - 7/1
Race 4: 12.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 6/1 – 16/1
Race 5: 19.8% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 11/1 – 9/1 (5/1)
Race 6: 76.2% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 10/3 – 10/1
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.20): 1 (Almurr), 3 (Confiding) & 4 (Daafr)
Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Klassique), 2 (Feline Groovy) & 9 (Solar Echo)
Leg 3 (2.20): 8 (Snow Wind) & 7 (Scottish Jig)
Leg 4 (2.55): 1 (Sea Of Class) & 3 (Dramatic Queen)
Leg 5 (3.30): 5 (Dourado), 1 (Madeleine Bond) & 9 (Wind In My Sails)
Leg 6 (4.00): 1 (Agar’s Plough) & 3 (Mountain Peak)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
1.20: ALMURR was the subject of some market activity overnight and there was plenty to like about Brian Meehan’s Dandy Man representative when beaten less than three lengths on debut at Leicester. CONFIDING has been pleasing connections back at Martin Meade’s ranch, whilst DAAFR should be there or thereabouts entering the final furlong.
Favourite factor: Only one of three favourites has secured a Placepot position to date. The relevant 4/7 market leader finished second last year as we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective after three renewals.
1.50: This is a guessing game to a fashion, though the Galieo filly KLASSIQUE could be a tad overpriced with a couple of firms at the time of writing. William Haggas continues his relentless run of decent form and Tom Marquand’s mount might prove to be the safest option, from a Placepot perspective at least. Others catching the eye include stable companion FELINE GROOVY and SOLAR ECHO.
Favourite factor: The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.
2.20: With a couple of likely looking representatives in the first heat of this contest, William Haggas looks to have a fairly strong hold, having declared his High Chaparral filly SNOW WIND. Bet365 are out on a limb at 9/2 as I pen this column and that could look a very decent price in an hour or two I’ll wager. SCOTTISH JIG has experience on her side (to a fashion) and John Gosden’s Speightstown raider also looks sure to go close.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card. The two favourites have claimed silver and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.
2.55: SEA OF CLASS and DRAMATIC QUEEN hail from the William Haggas yard which is seemingly seeking to take over the meeting given their declarations on Thursday. SEA OF CLASS looks to be the clear pick of the pair, though readers should take note of the ‘favourite factor’ below before diving in with both feet!
Favourite factor: Only one of the last four favourites that failed to win their respective events has finished in the frame, stats which include the last two odds on favourites. That said, market leaders have won three of the last seven renewals.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/1—Sea Of Class (good to firm)
3.30: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured six of the available eight Placepot positions to date, stats which include all three winners at odds of 25/1, 15/2 and 6/1, albeit via 70% of the total number of runners. Upwards and onward using that ‘edge’ by naming DOURADO, MADELEINE BOND and WIND IN MY SAILS against the remaining thirteen contenders.
Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite following three contests, whilst only one of the market leaders has secured a Placepot positon during the period.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:
1/2—Madeleine Bond (good)
1/2—Wind In My Sails (good to firm)
1/1—Kyllachys Tale (good to firm)
1/9—Cricklewood Green (good)
4.00: If any of the 15/2 on offer about AGAR’S PLOUGH is still available, I would be inclined to make an investment in a race in which barely any other horse has attracted support overnight. MOUNTAIN PEAK is nominated as the most obvious threat.
Favourite factor: Only two favourites have obliged via the last ten contest, though seven gold medallists during the study period scored at a top price of 7/1. Five of the ten market leaders secured Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.