DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £5,101.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (1.20): 10 (Kenny The Captain), 5 (Vimy Ridge) & 3 (Related)
Leg 2 (1.50): 3 (Silver Starlight), 5 (Clubbable) & 2 (Ellthea)
Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Sizzling), 5 (Nyaleti) & 2 (Dark Rose Angel)
Leg 4 (3.00): 8 (Detailed), 7 (Aljezeera) & 9 (Melodic Motion)
Leg 5 (3.35): 3 (Danzan), 11 (Great Prospector), 7 (Laugh A Minute) & 4 (Aireen Faisal)
Leg 6 (4.05): 4 (Al Neksh)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.20: Apologies offered for what will seem a restricted service having reacted badly to my umpteenth flu jab yesterday which has never happened before. Tim Easterby found a fine opportunity (as reported on Wednesday) for Off Art to win the novelty race yesterday and the trainer could double up in the Ladies’ race on the card with KENNY THE CAPTAIN. The pick of the outsiders could prove to be VIMY RIDGE (Alan Bailey has been in fine form these last few weeks) and RELATED who will be partnered by the much underrated Holly Doyle for the first time. A sixteenth runner in the race would have helped.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings on day two of the St Leger Festival.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/5—Hoofalong (good to firm)
1/5—Kenny The Captain (soft)
1/5—Seamster (good to firm)
1.50: 14 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, with the top weight The Mums eliminated from my inquiries this time around accordingly. This race constantly destroys the dreams of 'Potters' the length and breadth of the land at the first time of asking on the second day of the St Leger meeting, though this is the smallest assembled field for the contest in many years. Overnight money has (seemingly) arrived for SILVER STARLIGHT which could enable Tim Easterby to make a wonderful start to the second day of the meeting, connections probably having most to fear from CLUBBABLE and soft ground winner ELLTHEA.
Favourite factor: Four of the 19 market leaders have prevailed thus far, whilst only six of the other 15 market leaders claimed additional toteplacepot positions. Aside from the winning 7/4, 9/4 3/1 and 9/2 favourites, other scorers included those returned at 20/1--20/1--16/1--12/1--12/1--12/1--12/1--10/1.
Draw factor (six and a half furlongs – the most renewal is listed first):
3-2-6 (12 ran-good)
20-19-6-16 (19 ran-good)
11-3-13-12 (17 ran-good)
10-2-14 (14 ran-good to soft)
17-1-14-19 (18 ran-good)
1-4-5 (13 ran-good)
1-12-6-10 (18 ran-good)
7-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)
16-2-14-8 (16 ran-soft)
3-9-7 (8 ran-good to firm)
6-8-9 (13 ran-heavy)
11-4-10 (14 ran-firm)
15-12-11-14 (22 ran-good)
5-6-14-3 (17 ran-good to firm)
19-1-14-3 (20 ran-good)
12-22-8-21 (22 ran-good to firm)
10-13-17-16 (17 ran-good to firm)
2.25: Godolphin has secured four of the last six renewals when represented, though the blue colours are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion. NYALETI arguably deserves her place towards the head of the market though in terms of value for money, Aidan O’Brien’s soft ground winner SIZZLING and course winner DARK ROSE ANGEL make more appeal from an each way perspective, if you are considering a wager in the contest aside from our Placepot interest.
Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have won during the last 20 years (including five of the last ten favourites), whilst 15 of the 20 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/1—Dark Rose Angel (good)
3.00: Three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 20 renewals, though four-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests. Another Irish raider (from Joseph O’Brien’s yard this time) makes the most appeal with heavy/soft ground winner DETAILED expected to figure prominently, even though the Motivator representative is hiked up in class. The odds compliers at Stan James might live to regret the 16/1 quote this morning, especially from an each way angle. ALJEZEERA and MELODIC MOTION are feared most.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have prevailed during the last 20 years, alongside one co favourite of three. 13 of the 23 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1—Aljazeera (good to firm)
3.35: Horses drawn middle to high have secured an edge in recent times as you can clearly see below and the pick of those drawn ‘favourably’ on this occasion include DANZAN (15/22), GREAT PROSPECTOR (10) and AREEN FAISAL (13). The trio are just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing. Media ‘experts’ fall over themselves to tell you that the type of trends I look at are irrelevant because “it all depends where the pace in the race is”. That has a bearing obviously, though generally it is their idleness that conveniently draws them to that conclusion! If the experts prove to be right over and above my viewpoint this time around, LAUGH A MINUTE (drawn 3) could make yours truly eat his words on this occasion.
Favourite factor: 10 of the 18 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions which is a fair record in this competitive event (four successful market leaders in the last 11 years), especially as just three places are up for grabs in this cavalry charge. These results exclude last year’s 7/2 favourite which was withdrawn just before the start before a new market could be formed.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—Requinto Dawn (good to soft)
Draw factor (six and a half furlongs):
16-3-22 (19 ran-good)
20-21-8 (22 ran-good
20-11-6-10 (21 ran-good)
15-17-21 (21-good to soft)
10-7-6 (21 ran-good)
13-4-19 (21 ran-good)
4-12-2 (21 ran-good)
21-4-1 (19 ran-good to firm)
16-17-9 (21 ran-soft)
7-20-13 (22 ran-good to firm)
10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)
12-17-19 (22 ran-good)
5-15-13 (22 ran-good)
17-18-21 (21 ran-good)
22-20-17 (22 ran-good to firm)
4-10-3 (22 ran-good)
6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)
11-4-20 (22 ran-good)
4.05: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last eleven renewals, whilst horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-1 have won nine contests during the last twelve years. Just one four-year-old has been declared this time around (wake up and smell the coffee trainers) and having dug a deep hole for myself by including so many horses in the first five races in my Placepot permutation, I am left hoping that AL NEKSH can maintain the good run of vintage representatives this time around.
Favourite factor: Ten of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame in the toteplacepot finale during which time, two winners have emerged.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Thursday – followed by number of winners at Doncaster on this corresponding day during the last six years:
9 runners—Richard Fahey (4 winners)
5—Richard Hannon (-)
3—Ralph Beckett (2)
3—Karl Burke (-)
3—Mick Channon (1)
3—Mark Johnston (-)
3—Joseph O’Brien (-)
2—Luca Cumani (4)
2—Keith Dalgleish (-)
2—Tim Easterby (-)
2—James Fanshawe (-)
2—William Haggas (2)
2—Paul Midgley (1)
2—Aidan O’Brien (1)
2—Kevin Ryan (1)
2—David Simcock (1)
2—Richard Spencer (-)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
72 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £138.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners- 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Epsom: £42.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Hexham: £479.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced