LEICESTER – FEBRUARY 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £110.50 (7 favourites: 2 winners--2 placed--3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Skipping On) & 4 (Glance Back)
Leg 2 (2.15): 6 (Grow Nasa Grow), 3 (Dylanseoghan) & 2 (Clondaw Westie)
Leg 3 (2.45): 5 (Colin’s Brother) & 3 (Crosspark)
Leg 4 (3.20): 2 (Chirico Vallis) & 1 (Tree Of Liberty)
Leg 5 (3.55): 4 (Timon’s Tara), 3 (Tara Mist) & 1 (Two Smokin Barrels)
Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Hazel Hill), 5 (Trafalgar Rock) & 2 (Path To Freedom)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: It’s a shame that we could not secure more than ten pence worth of yesterday’s £430.50 Musselburgh Placepot dividend but that said, we doubled our stake which I guess I would settle for on a daily basis! SKIPPING ON and GLANCE BACK appear to hold their rivals on all known form in the opening race and the pair are very much listed in order of preference at the time of writing. Laura Mongan (SKIPPING ON) has won with three of her last seven runners and the trainer can improve her recent strike rate ratio to 50% before another inmate takes its chance at Chelmsford this evening.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite secured a Placepot position without winning the relevant race in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives. Today’s opening race in one such event as are four others on the card, subject to non runners.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/7—Bally Lagan (good)
1/8—Lost In Newyork (good to soft)
2.15: I tend to do better when supporting Zoe Davison’s outsiders than when Zoe saddles well fancied horses but that said, DYLANSEOGHAN has a second to none chance on the form book, albeit I will be adding GROW NASA GROW and CLONDAW WESTIE into the Placepot mix because of the initial comment I made. It’s sad to have to offer half of the field in the hope of progressing further in our favourite wager but in a poor race, I feel I have little option.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.
2.45: All four winners to date have carried a maximum burden of 11-6 whereby Bright New Dawn is passed over, despite the positive ground factor for another of the Venetia Williams horses that tend to prefer wet conditions. Upwards and onward by suggesting that COLIN’S BROTHER and last year’s winner CROSSPARK should take most advantage of the weight concession on this occasion. Creep Desbois is offered the reserve nomination, just in case the non runner board starts to heave under considerable pressure by mid-morning.
Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.
Record of the course winners in the third event:
3.20: Given the favourite stats below (albeit after only two renewals), it might take a brave investor to pile into TREE OF LIBERTY at around the 1/3 mark this morning, whereas 9/4 about CHIRICO VALLIS is a perfectly reasonable price in what amounts to a ‘match’, given that St Merryn would have to start about now to beat the other pair, barring accidents.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have been beaten in ‘win only’ races thus far.
3.55: TIMON’S TARA does not have to try and overcome a horse of Song Saa’s class, as was the case in this event last year and though Robin Dickin’s raider is one paced in the extreme, today could be the time to latch onto Jack Quinlan’s mount, especially with Robin boasting seasonal stats of 4/6 here at Fontwell, figures which have produced 21 points of level stake profit. That said, TARA MIST and TWO SMOKIN BARRELS have to be added into the Placepot equation for fear of a withdrawal reducing this contest to a ‘win only’ event.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 market leader duly obliged.
4.30: For the same reason as in the previous contest (in terms of the projected numbers), HAZEL HILL, TRAFALGAR ROCK and PATH TO FREEDOM are all going to represent yours truly in the Placepot finale. For the record, the trio are listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/11 market leader prevailed before last year’s 9/4 favourite let the side down by being one of two runners which failed to complete the course.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
3 runners—Dan Skelton (2/6 – slight loss) – 6/29 – loss of 1 point
2—Zoe Davison (1/9 – loss of 5) – 3/18 +12
2—Robin Dickin (4/6 +21) – 7/25 +14
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
33 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Kelso: £50.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Fontwell: £165.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Chelmsford: £543.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced