CHELTENHAM – MARCH 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £58.10 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 87.4% units went through – 6/4*, 7/2 & 4/1
Race 2: 26.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1, 16/1, 9/1 & 66/1 (8/1)
Race 3: 43.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/4*, 8/1 & 40/1
Race 4: 67.9% of the remaining units went through – 10/1, 33/1 & 5/6*
Race 5: 32.6% of the remaining units went through – 14/1, 10/1, 10/1 7/1 (5/1)
Race 6: 56.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/8*, 12/1 & 20/1
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham:
Leg 1 (1.30): 4 (Invitation Only) & 10 (Shattered Love)
Leg 2 (2.10): 12 (Sort It Out), 17 (Forza Milan), 19 (Protek Des Flos) & 13 (Delta Work)
Leg 3 (2.50): 1 (Un De Sceaux) & 6 (Frodon)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Unowhatimeanharry), 3 (L’Ami Serge) & 2 (The New One)
Leg 5 (4.10): 16 (Kings Socks), 20 (Guitar Pete), 21 (Willie Boy) & 18 (Midnight Shot)
Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Marias Benefit) & 2 (Laurina)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: 11 of the 21 Placepot positions have been claimed by seven-year-olds, statistics which include five (20/1--7/1--4/1—4/1*** & 6/4) winners. INVITATION ONLY and SHATTERED LOVE are the vintage representatives which jump of the page, with KEMBOY offered up as a lively outsider to consider if you want to take on the shorter priced selections. TERREFORT in the other horse in the field which could potentially win the event from my viewpoint, though I’m sticking with the vintage stats, just for a change!
Favourite factor: A changing scenario to the terms and conditions of this event means that we have just seven renewals to take into account. Six of the nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, three of which won their relevant events at 6/4 (twice) & 4/1***.
2.10: 11 of the last 14 winners of the 'Pertempts' have carried 11-4 or less, statistics which eliminate three of the 24 runners this time around. SORT IT OUT, FORZA MILAN, PROTEK DES FLOS and DELTA WORK are offered against the remaining 20 contenders, the pick of which might prove to be Glenloe.
Favourite factor: Only two market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 14 years (one winner), which from an each way perspective in a fiercely competitive hurdle event, is particularly important for the layers. Going back further in time, it's worth noting that just two market leaders has prevailed during the last 21 years.
2.50: You will be in a much better position to assess this event (particularly from a Placepot perspective) when an official comment is made about the possible participation of DOUVAN who fell yesterday when going well in the ‘Queen Mother’. Not wanting to put all my eggs in one basket, I’m opting for FRODON to accompany UN DE SCEAUX in my permutation because if I offer stable companion Douvan into the mix and he is withdrawn, the units will be transferred onto to the favourite which I already have on my side. FRODON offers some value for money in the contest anyway, with Paul Nicholls finally making a challenge this week in terms of his number of entries. I would be shouting louder that most if Cue Card returns to his best form but he had a mighty tough race at Ascot the last day and this might prove to be a race too far this winter, given his advancing years.
Favourite factor: Four of the last six favourites have won whilst eight of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.
3.30: UNOWHATIMEANHARRY was beaten at odds of 5/6 in this event last year and up until the recent rain/snow arrived, I had put a line through his name but market support over the last few days has intensified whereby I now believe that ‘Harry’ could become involved in the finish again. The ground might have gone against THE NEW ONE, not necessarily because Nigel’s grand servant cannot handle such conditions but over this type of trip, he remains an unknown quantity. My heart is ruling my head by including the old boy from a Placepot perspective alongside L’AMI SERGE who looks a tad too big in the betting at 12/1, odds which are generally available at the time of writing. Wholestone receives the reserve nomination at around the 20/1 mark.
Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 25 market leaders—9 winners—8 placed—8 unplaced. First three in betting: 69 representatives—16 winners—23 placed—30 unplaced.
4.10: Known for many years as the 'Mildmay of Flete', this event takes on a ‘new’ name these days though whatever titles are prefixed to contests at the meeting, trainers still target their horses for the respective events the same way. Although eight-year-olds have 'only' won five of the last 19 renewals, win and place investors should consider that vintage representatives have secured 31 of the 65 available place positions during the study period. Horses carrying 11-2 or more have claimed just three victories and eleven place positions, leaving horses lower down the handicap to run riot. Putting the stats and facts together I’ll offer a short list of KINGS SOCKS, GUITAR PETE, WILLIE BOY and MIDNIGHT SHOT. Some money was developing in the (realistic) positive exchange queue for King’s Odyssey at the time of writing which makes for interesting reading.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite (six years ago) has obliged since 1999, whilst ‘recent’ winners having included those returned at 66/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-25/1-18/1—16/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1. That said, eight of the 15 market leaders during the study period finished in the frame.
4.50: Willie Mullins has won both renewals and LAURINA is likely to be another Odds on chance for the trainer, despite Ruby Walsh missing out on the ride (through injury) this time around. There is much to be said for offering fancied horses in the last leg of our favourite bet, especially at the bigger meetings. We can lay off at extremely short prices in place terms if we have reached the final leg safely, if the ‘Pot’ is looking as though it will pay a decent dividend. That is not the only reason for adding MARIAS BENEFIT into the equation however, because I firmly believe that the six-year-old will give the favourite a real run for her money. CAP SOLEIL easily appeals as the alternative (each way) selection of you are looking to take on the shorter priced contenders.
Favourite factor: Willie Mullins trained favourites have won the two renewals at odds of 11/8 & 8/11.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Cheltenham card on Thursday:
11 runners—Willie Mullins
5—Henry De Bromhead
+ 50 different trainers who each saddle just one or two runners on the card
118 declared runners (120 last year)
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hexham: £31.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Towcester: £17.00 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 laced – 1 unplaced
Chelmsford: £60.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced