LUDLOW - NOVEMBER 16
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £61.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow:
Leg 1 (1.25): 2 (Cockney Wren) & 8 (Sunshade)
Leg 2 (1.55): 2 (Cervin), 6 (It’s a Sting) & 1 (Cervin)
Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Cresswell Legend), 6 (Black Sam Bella) & 4 (Haul Away)
Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 6 (Bollin Line) & 1 (Market Road)
Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Petite Power) & 5 (By The Boardwalk)
Leg 6 (4.00): 7 (Cubswin) & 4 (Pheonix Dawn)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.25: Although COCKNEY WREN is still a shade of odds on at the time of writing, money is coming in for SUNSHADE and it is worth acknowledging that Nicky Henderson has saddled five winners in as many years at this corresponding meeting. That said, Harry Fry (COCKNEY WREN) has saddled eight of his last sixteen runners to winning effect and this pair should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest. Grania O’Malley looks booked for third spot at half decent odds from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite duly obliged for the Alan King yard.
1.55: Stuart Edmunds has his team in fine form whereby it might not pay to dismiss stable representative LEGAL OKAY too quickly, as Stuart attempts to secure his fourth success with his tenth recent runner. More logical winners to the untrained eye appear to include ITS A STING and another each way type, namely CERVIN from last year’s successful yard.
Favourite factor: The market got the second race right as well twelve months ago as the inaugural 7/2 favourite scored for the Tim Vaughan stable.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/2—Go On Henry (good)
2.25: Four and five-year-olds have secured 19 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions between them with five-year-olds leading 5-2 from a win perspective. The pick of the relevant runners on this occasion will hopefully prove to be BLACK SAM BELLA and HAUL AWAY from the in form stables of Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson respectively. That said, Kim Bailey also has his team in fine form whereby the lone course winner in the field has to be included in the mix, namely CRESSWELL LEGEND. It’s worth taking into account Kim’s raids at this venue this season which have produced a ratio of 5/8, figures which have produced 17 points of level stake profit.
Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders (three of them won their respective races) have secured Placepot positions to date.
Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:
1/1—Cresswell Legend (good)
3.00: I don’t like siding with ‘favourites’ but the top three horses in the market in the dead of night really do stand out from the crowd. Irish raider MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE takes in a hurdle event for the first time but anything like the form he showed at Musselburgh when winning recently would be good enough to go very close in this grade/company. Hat trick seeker BOLLIN LINE has been very well placed by Lucingda Egerton again, whilst MARKET ROAD represents Evan Williams who is second in the list to Nicky Henderson at this corresponding meeting in recent times on the three winner mark. The result might be best served from a Placepot perspective if just one of the trio reach the frame alongside two ‘rags’, especially as I have no compunction to become involved from a win viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders (both winners of their respective events at 9/4 & 7/2**) have claimed Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event:
1/1—Bollin Line (good)
1/2—Mr Bachster (good)
3.30: The strongest of the shorter priced runners in this event at the time of writing was very much PETITE POWER from Fergal’s O’Brien’s yard which has been firing in the winners in recent times. Whilst talking about the popular trainer, I should remind readers what was said before the recent meeting at Cheltenham in that Fergal is very much the underrated handler at the track; before he posted two winners last month. For the record, Fergal has twelve runners entered at Prestbury Park this weekend, five on Friday, four on Saturday and three on the final day of the fixture. Back to this event, suggesting that BY THE BOARDWALK is the each way option if you want to shy away from odds of around 10/3 about the projected market leader.
Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety.
4.00: Last year’s 4/9 favourite was beaten in the Placepot finale whereby you need to treat the race with plenty of respect, given that this is a juvenile event. That said, Neil King’s Zamindar filly CUBSWIN won well at the first time of asking whereby the ex Roger Charlton inmate has to be included in the mix, especially with a claimer in the saddle who negates the penalty for the relevant success. PHEONIX DAWN appears to be the obvious danger having run well over timber already. TAMAYEF is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly, having reached an official mark of 82 on the level, albeit six turf assignments have only brought about one silver medal to date. Seemingly a better performer on an A/W surface, the other pair are preferred accordingly.
Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday followed by seasonal stats and profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)
3—Matt Sheppard (1/4 +4)
3—Evan Williams (1/8 – loss of 2 points)
2—Kim Bailey (5/8 +17)
2—Tom George (0/3)
2—Nigel Hawke (0/1)
2—Nicky Henderson (0/4)
2—Emma Lavelle (0/2)
2—Kerry Lee (0/1)
2—Charlie Longsdon (2/6 +3)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/5 – loss of 1 point)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Taunton: This meeting was abandoned last year
Chelmsford: £21.30 - 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Southwell: £1,035.30 - 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced