NEWMARKET – APRIL 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £33.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 59.4% units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 8/1
Race 2: 39.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 11/4** (11/4**)
Race 3: 77.4% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 9/1
Race 4: 34.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 & 11/4 (9/4)
Race 5: 56.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 9/2 – 11/4**
Race 6: 59.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 12/1 – 25/1
Thurday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Captain Jameson), 5 (Consequences) & 6 (Dragons Tail)
Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Karaginsky), 10 (Military Band) & 13 (Monoxide)
Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Le Brivido) & 9 (Spirit Of Valour)
Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Masar) & 4 (Roaring Lion)
Leg 5 (4.10): 13 (Sheika Reika), 4 (Improve) & 10 (Playfull Spirit)
Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Nordic Lights), 3 (Argentello) & 5 (Bedouin’s Story)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
1.50: I offered a big shout for last year’s 11/4 winner and am quietly confident that CAPTAIN JAMESON can reward each way investors this time around. Trainer John Quinn did us a 12/1 favour at the corresponding fixture last year and though softer ground would have offered an added bonus, Jason Hart’s mount is expected to give us a good run for our collective monies, albeit stakes are lowered (to a fashion) because of his ‘recent’ gelding operation. Not all the boys react as positively as some having had the ‘snip’! Course and distance winner CONSEQUENCES is named as the main threat alongside DRAGONS TAIL who represents Tom Dascombe’s in-form yard. For the record, eight winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 8-13 and both CAPTAIN JAMESON and DRAGONS TAIL qualify via the recent weight trend.
Favourite factor: Eight of the twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions during the eleven years, statistics which include six winners.
Record of the course winner in the opening race:
1/1—Consequences (good to firm)
2.25: Godolphin has secured three of the last four renewals (and four of the last seven) of the ‘Wood Ditton’ and the two horses sporting the famous blue colours are both expected to go close here, namely KARAGINSKY and MILITARY BAND. The pair is listed in marginal order of preference with both Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor having their horses in fine form at this moment in time. That said, Charlie seemingly always has his runners in grand fettle – period! Money for MONOXIDE would add interest to proceedings, especially as no trainer has saddled more winners that Martyn Meade on this final day of the Craven meeting during the last five years. Martyn’s Epsom Derby entry might be put through his paces with more urgency than some I’ll wager, offering potential each way investors an interest at around the 16/1 mark this morning.
Favourite factor: 14 of the 24 favourites have secured Placepot positions (seven winners) during the 20 year study period.
3.00: Four-year-olds have won nine renewals during the last twenty years, whilst claiming 23 of the 58 available Placepot positions during the study period. The pair which dominated last year’s Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot could fill the forecast positions again here I guess, with LE BRIVIDO and SPIRIT OF VALOUR being the horses in question. Aidan O’Brien saddled a welcome winner at Dundalk last night following nineteen consecutive losers, though I am not speaking ‘after the event’ you understand as I warned readers of Aidan’s form before racing commenced on Tuesday. It’s not that Aidan’s runners are running deplorably you understand, they are simply not picking up to go on and win their races having been given every chance by their respective pilots. For that reason, I’m adding SPIRIT OF VALOUR in the Placepot mix, albeit I expect Aidan’s War front colt to be held by the French representative again. MAGICAL MEMORY won this race back in 2016 and it might be a tad too soon to write of his chance of winning another Group race just yet, whilst the second time of asking this season might not be a bad time to catch the six-year-old, especially with the Charlie Hills runners going well just now. DREAM OF DREAMS would have entered the equation had the ground been as soft as it was earlier in the week.
Favourite factor: Four market leaders have prevailed (within the last thirteen years), whilst eleven of the twenty favourites have reached the frame during the (longer) study period.
Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:
2/2—Brando (good to firm & good to soft)
1/3—Magical Memory (good to soft)
3.35: Few trainers ‘tilt at windmills’ better than Peter Chapple-Hyam and when I offer that remark, I’m talking about 50/1 chances as well as what some media types class as outsider simply because a horse wins in double figures! That said, even Peter might be overstepping the mark with his course and distance winner Just Brilliant here, though I can rarely (if ever) totally write of his runners at outrageous prices. This does look to be a tough ask however, with ROARING LION and (particularly) MASAR having been declared to run. The problem we ‘Potters’ have when looking at trial races like this is just how much is a horse going to be ‘pushed’ out if its winning chance has gone? I’m aware that this is a comment which could be made for any fancied horse though in the case of potential ‘champions’ in the making, the scenario is extended without a shadow of a doubt. That said, MASAR is likely to be ridden all the way to the jamstick given that connections have little to lose by taking on the hot favourite ROARING LION. In case you thought that John Gosden’s market leader was ‘home and hosed’ before going into the stalls, I feel obligated to suggest that this is his first outing on what might turn out to be good ground by the time that flag fall arrives this afternoon. All three victories have been recorded on ‘good to soft’, whilst his all-weather victory was on the slow side of standard at Kempton. Food for thought?
Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have snared Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.
Record of the course winners in the Craven Stakes:
1/1—Just Brilliant (good)
1/1—Roaring Lion (good to soft)
4.10: The dogs are barking harmoniously regarding the chance of SHEIKHA REIKA who represents Roger Varian who won with one of his four runners on the heath yesterday afternoon. Money for the William Haggas newcomer IMPROVE would add much required interest to proceedings, whilst my trio against the remaining eleven contenders is completed by PLAYFULL SPIRIT.
Favourite factor: Eleven favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders from a win perspective.
4.45: I guess it’s easy to suggest (this side of midnight) that the lads and lasses in the trade press office have a got a price seriously wrong in terms of the betting guide, though the 12/1 quoted for Saaed Bin Suroor’s BEDOUIN’S STORY was right out of the top draw of JK Rowling’s fictional bedtime reading material. We might be lucky to secure half of those odds I’ll wager, albeit NORDIC LIGHTS and ARGENTELLO might still take the beating from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new ‘novice’ event with which to close out our favourite wager.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.