CARLISLE – OCTOBER 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £135.80 (6 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Barrys Jack), 4 (Celtic Flames) & 10 (Wazowski)
Leg 2 (2.45): 2 (Apollo Creed) & 3 (Count Mirabel)
Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Carrigdhoun), 2 (Ballyben) & 4 (Vic De Touzain)
Leg 4 (3.45): 3 (Colt Lightning) & 1 (Bel De Rio)
Leg 5 (4.20): 5 (Miss Mash), 7 (Sapphire Noire) & 6 (Cowslip)
Leg 6 (4.50): 9 (Beau Bay), 2 (Dubai Angel) & 1 (Report To Base)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: All eight of Sue Smith’s runners finished out of the frame at Wetherby yesterday (exact science) whereby I will swerve her runners on the card this afternoon until she finds a winner, let alone a placed horse. Leaving her Market Rasen winner Flemerina aside accordingly, I am left with the likes of BARRYS JACK, CELTIC FLAMES and WAZOWSKI for representation in today’s opening Placepot teaser.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites to date have snared Placepot positions without winning their respective events.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/4—Hartside (good to soft)
2.45: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 4/2 via just the six contests thus far and the vintage looks well represented here with APOLLO CREED and COUNT MIRABEL having been declared. Evan Williams saddles three runners at the track via a recent 4/9 ratio and APOLLO CREED is marginally preferred accordingly. Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled the beaten (4/5) favourite in the race twelve months ago, albeit only a neck separated the front two at the line. Nigel is not one to ‘go quietly’ however, and has come back for a tilt at the prize with COUNT MIRABEL who looks sure to go close. All nine of the Rebecca Curtis runners have been beaten this month, though the declaration of Absolute Power still catches the eye as the first of two runners on the card for the popular trainer, a venue she has swerved for over five years.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have scored at 11/8-11/10-5/6-1/4, with five of the six claiming Placepot positions.
3.15: The radar suggests that Carlisle might miss the worst of the weather (the floodgates are supposedly going to open here for the day here in Bristol anytime now) which should bring some relief to connections of the defending champion CARRIGHOUN whose four victories at the course have been gained under good to soft conditions. The reverse weather scenario would have pleased Venetia Williams (VIC DE TOUZAIN) and Malcolm Jefferson (BALLYBEN) though there still be enough moisture in the turf to suit their respective raiders.
Favourite factor: The three market leaders have failed to reach the frame in what was the Placepot finale last year.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
2/3—Palm Grey (good & soft)
4/8—Carrigdhioun (4 x good to soft)
3.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals and yet only
a lone 100/1 chance represented the vintage twelve months ago. Thankfully trainers have come to their senses this time around, with the Placepot chances (at the very least) of COLT LIGHTNING and BAL DE RIO there for all to see. Tom Lacey has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect whereby the pair are listed in order of preference. CESAR COLLONGES could also reward each way investors in a race that should not prove difficult to win.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 during which time, three market leaders have prevailed.
4.20: There will be worse 12/1 chances on the card than COWSLIP I’ll wager, with the C/D winner having gained her success under these conditions, albeit that victory was recorded two and a half years ago. I’m still adding Donald McCain’s Tobougg mare into the Placepot equation alongside more obvious winners such as SAPPHIRE NOIRE (take a look at Nigel Hawke’s record at the foot of the analysis) and MISS MASH who has attracted overnight money. The latter named (Richard Johnson partnered) Henry Daly raider represents a yard which boasts 3/7 at the track in recent season and is Henry’s only runner in Cumbria this afternoon. Bet3675 offer 6/1 about Henry’s raider which will not last long from my viewpoint. This is an intriguing ‘dead eight’ event which will destroy many a Placepot dream this afternoon I fancy.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Carlisle card.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
4.50: Four time winner BEAU BAY can’t have the ground too soft and with the turf having been well and truly turned over by the time flag fall arrives in this event, Richard Johnson looks to have another decent chance on the card. DUBAI ANGEL has recorded a soft ground victory at the track which makes Malcolm Jefferson’s representative a real threat, whilst REPORT TO BASE won at the first time of asking at Uttoxeter last season, a track which also offers sport this afternoon. A fabulous Placepot finale in the Class 3 sector.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have won at 6/4 and Evens, though the other two market leaders both finished out with the washing.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/1—Dubai Angel (soft)
2/2—Derinother Yam (2 x good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Carlisle card on Thursday – followed by trainer stats for the last five years + level stake profit/losses accrued:
7 runners—Donald McCain (33/167 – loss of 33 points)
4—Sue Smith (14/92 – loss of 14 points)
3—Stuart Crawford (6/16 – loss of four points)
3—Rose Dobbin (6/56 – loss of 47 points)
3—Evan Williams (4/9 – Slight profit)
2—Rebecca Curtis (No previous runners)
2—Brian Ellison (6/41 – loss of 15 points)
2—Micky Hammond (6/84 – loss of51 points)
2—Nigel Hawke (8.20 +9)
2—Malcolm Jefferson (9/38 – loss of 1 point)
2—Tom Lacey (0/3)
2—Kerry Lee (0/5)
2—Barry Murtagh (0/33)
2—Nicky Richards (16/72 +16)
2—Martin Todhunter (2/62 – loss of 40 points)
2—Nigel Twiston Davies (2/12 – loss of 4 points)
2—Venetia Williams (7/26 +12)
2—Peter Winks (2/8 +1)
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £10.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 placed
Newcastle: £305.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £52.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced