WINCANTON – FEBRUARY 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £94.50 (7 favourites: 4 winners & 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (1.20): 12 (Aardwolf) & 5 (Molineaux)
Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Persian Delight), 3 (San Pedro De Senam) & 2 (Valhalla)
Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Drops Of Jupitor), 6 (Jubilympics) & 8 (Rosemary Russet)
Leg 4 (3.00): 3 (On The Road), 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 4 (Here’s Herbie)
Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Siruh Du Lac), 2 (Kayf Adventure) & 1 (Vic De Touzain)
Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Unioniste)
Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.20: I fully understand why the bookmakers are only offering odds on prices about MOLINEAUX in the dead of night, though it would take a brave investor to pile in too heavily on a horse which faces its tenth assignment as a maiden. Warren Greatrex looks the main threat here with the in form trainer having declared AARDWOLF who reached the heady heights of 93 on the level as a winner of three races. Not beaten far at Pontefract on soft ground on one occasion, Richard Johnson’s mount should handle conditions as well any of his rivals whereby at the odds of offer at 11/4, AARDWOLF would be the marginal call. If that price drifts too much over the next few hours however, my interest from a win perspective would be diluted.
Favourite factor: The first two (odds on) favourites had prevailed at odds of 1/4 & 8/11 before the next market leader could only plod home in fourth placed behind horses which filled the frame at 6/1, 14/1 & 10/1. Thankfully, the race reverted to type last year when the 5/4 favourite obliged.
1.50: As winners on heavy ground, SAN PEDRO DE SENAM and VALHALLA are entitled to plenty of respect, though this could be the chance for PERSIAN DELIGHT to make up for lost time as an eight-year-old having only tackled seven assignments to date, two of which were successful. All three runners are included in my permutation but that said, I would like the latter named Paul Nicholls raider to score, if only to see how good the Lucarno gelding might have been if avoiding injuries down the years. Maybe it’s not too late in the day for PERSIAN DELIGHT to pick up some decent prizes from here on in.
Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (9/4**, 5/4, Evens & 10/11) winners.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/3—Persian Delight (soft)
2.25: Six-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, yet no vintage representatives were involved twelve months ago. That is not the case this time around however, with eight of the nine entries representing the vintage! Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong just now and though Solstice Twilight will struggle to become involved at the business end of the contest from my viewpoint, stable companion DROPS OF JUPITOR will go close to extending the trainer’s recent tally which stands at 6/10. That said, this ground will be softer than when she has scored before, whilst a new trip is also tried for the first time whereby the trade press quote of 4/6 looks plenty skinny enough. JUBILYMPICS and ROSEMARY RUSSET boast claims on the best of their form, whilst Kayley Woollacott (Dinos Benefit) will prefer the peace and quiet to the hubbub at Cheltenham on Saturday. This is her (south-west) manor however, whereby there will be a massive ovation for Kayley and the team if the mare can lift this prize.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won seven of the last eleven contests, whilst favourites came to the gig on a five timer two years ago, only for the 11/10 market leader to find the 6/4 second favourite too strong close home.
3.00: Bryony Frost takes her only booked ride (until Sunday at the earliest at the time of writing) aboard CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK and with Lizzie Kelly aboard another horse in the next race with similar (decent) claims, the ladies could well show the boys the way home, as was the case at Prestbry Park on Saturday of course. There is (at least) one potential thorn standing in her way here as ON THE ROAD is re-routed to timber following two efforts over the larger obstacles of late. Proven on heavy ground (gold and silver medals via three relevant assignments to date), the Evan Williams raider would go very close here if back to his best. Lucy Gardner (Here’s Herbie) and Bridget Andrews (Hurricane Hollow) also have rides in the race, making the girls 4/6 chances to land the spoils between them before the form book is taken into account.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 10/3 market leader (frustratingly) finished fourth, missing out on a toteplacepot position in the process as did last the next 15/8 favourite. The following 13/8 (Paul Nicholls trained) market leader duly obliged before last year’s 11/4 favourite fell when moving into contention.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/1—Captain Cattistock (soft)
3.35: Three of the five winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-8 and with the projected heavy conditions in place, it would come as no surprise if the Siruh Du Lac went mighty close with Lizzie Kelly still offering great value for her three pound claim. Remarkably, this is Lizzie’s first ride since winning on Agrapart at Cheltenham on Saturday and for some reason, SIRUH DU LAC is her only mount for the foreseeable future – wake up trainers! That said, VIC DE TOUZAIN is too big at 12/1 in a place this morning, whilst the ground has come right for KAYF ADVENTURE and no mistake.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have finished ‘in the three’ (exact science) to date. The statistics include two winning favourites which were both returned at 9/4.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on card:
1/2—Kayf Adventure (heavy)
1/1—Le Boizelo (heavy)
4.15: I have made the point several times before that Hunter Chase events have the best record in terms of winning favourites under either code of the sport and with the conditions of this event hugely favouring UNIONISTE, the trend will surely be extended in this grade/company. Anyone who knocks the exchanges should take into the account the ‘insurance’ that we ‘Potters’ can take out if we have successfully made it through to the final leg of our favourite wager, especially when we can ‘lay back’ at odds of around 1/6 to at least ensure that we are in a ‘no lose’ situation on the day if need be. UNIONISTE would be giving this pair an additional 15 pounds+ in a handicap event, whereby the Paul Nicholls raider represents ‘banker’ material, given the opportunity of ‘insurance’ if we need it.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have finished in the frame, though we have had to wait until the last two years for the (8/13 & 4/9) market leaders to oblige from a win perspective.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wincanton card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
4 runners—Anthony Honeyball (3/13 – loss of 1 point) – 9/65 – loss of 24
4—Paul Nicholls (6/34 – loss of 4) – 80/245 – loss of 55
4—Colin Tizzard (6/44 (loss of 21) – 27/225 – loss of 72
3—Philp Hobbs (2/10 – loss of 10) – 23/153 – loss of 38
3—Neil Mulholland (2/20 – loss of 13) – 13/141 – loss of 51
2—Gary Moore (1/7 – loss of 4) – 3/43 – loss of 23
2—Jeremy Scott (2/12 +1) – 10/101 – loss of 43
2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 5/32 +13
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
47 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Towcester: £231.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton: £1,688.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced
Southwell: £31.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced