EXETER - DECEMBER 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £50.20 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (12.35): 5 (Ebonys Encore), 1 (Waiheke) & 4 (Drops Of Jupitor)
Leg 2 (1.05): 1 (Casablanca Mix) & 5 (The Nipper)
Leg 3 (1.35): 4 (Admiral’s Secret), 10 (Triple Secret) & 7 (The Cider Maker)
Leg 4 (2.05): 1 (Overtown Express) & 2 (Le Rocher)
Leg 5 (2.40): 4 (Rockpoint), 2 (Night Of Sin) & 11 (Trans Express)
Leg 6 (3.15): 2 (Who’s My Jockey) & 1 (Polydora)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals though unfortunately, Harry Fry is without a representative having won three of the last four contests. The pick of the five-year-olds on this occasion appear to be EBONYS ENCORE and DROPS OF JUPITOR, albeit the latter named Anthony Honeyball raider is only four pounds better off with WAIHEKE having been beaten by nine lengths by that rival over course and distance last time out. The worry with the projected favourite however is that Philip Hobbs has only won with one of his seventeen runners during the last fortnight. Conversely, Anthony’s runners have (arguably) never been in better form.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (15/8 & 8/11) gold medallist.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1.05: CASABLANCA MIX won at the fourth time of asking in this (mostly) green and pleasant land under the useful five pound claimer Ned Curtis and the pilot retains the ride aboard Nicky Henderson’s raider. Nicky das saddled ten of his last 23 runners to winning effect, having secured a 935/1 four-timer yesterday, albeit via eleven runners on the day. Connections of CASABLANCA MIX (running under slightly softer conditions this time around) might have most to fear THE NIPPER who has been the subject of some support overnight.
Favourite factor: Both of the (even money and 1/2) favourites have won their respective events to date.
1.35: Six-year-olds have won four of the seven contests to date, whilst six of the seven gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-1. No six-year-olds were involved two years ago which makes the vintage trends more impressive, whereby Vic Dartnall’s ADMIRAL’S SECRET is the first name on my team sheet. Fellow vintage representative TRIPLE SECRET is a soft ground course and distance winner who will not be far away I’ll wager, whilst THE CIDER MAKER keeps being nibbled on the exchanges wherever someone offers anything approaching the 7/1 mark.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites which managed to yield Placepot positions thus far did so by securing two gold, two silver medals and one of the bronze variety via seven renewals.
Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:
2/7—Midnight Request (2 x good to soft)
3/10—Only Gorgeous (good – good to firm – soft)
1/4—Triple Chief (soft)
2.05: Favourites come to the gig on a four-timer, whilst the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 4/1. That trend will be extended this time around with just the two runners having been declared. Heavy ground winner OVERTOWN EXPRESS is Harry Fry’s only runner on the card, the trainer having saddled four winners at the corresponding meeting during the last four years. LE ROCHER will not prove to be a ‘pushover’ however and both horses are included in the Placepot permutation accordingly.
Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have won, though the other five market leaders all finished out of the frame. The 2013 event was a particularly galling experience for favourite backers as the 4/9 favourite simply refused to race.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/1—Overtown Express (heavy)
2.40: Seven of the ten renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden of 10-11, statistics which unfortunately eliminates just four runners on this occasion. That leaves seven contenders to consider, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be ROCKPOINT and NIGHT OF SIN. Sue Gardner is one of those trainers that I just can’t call the right way. If I opt for one of her runners it finishes out of the frame and vice versa. Sue saddled last year’s winner and though TRANS EXPRESS runs out of the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap, I’m adding Lucy’s mount into the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Only two of the 12 favourites (3/1 & 4/11 winners of their respective events) have obliged to date.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
2/5—Trans Express (good & soft)
3.15: Despite the negative comments regarding the Philip Hobbs stable mentioned in the opening event, it’s difficult to look beyond WHO’S MY JOCKEY in the ‘lucky last’ Only POLYDORA can be fancied to get the marker leader off the bridal in this grade/company according to yours truly.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Exeter card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Exeter card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
4 runners—Vic Dartnall (1/8 +2) – 44/270 – loss of 17 points
4—David Pipe (2/19 - loss of 4 points) – 60/455 – loss of 160
3—Sue Gardner (3/19 +2) – 26/262 – loss of 61
3—Colin Tizzard (5/21 – loss of 3 points) – 52/399 – loss of 124
3—Robert Walford (1/12 – loss of 8 points) – 9/69 – loss of 19
3—Nick Williams (1/4 – loss of 2 points) – 24/143 – loss of 12
2—Brian Barr (0/2) – 0/26
2—David Dennis (1/8 – loss of 2 points) – 3/35 – loss of 23
2—Polly Gundry (0/3) – 2/37 – loss of 1
2—Philip Hobbs (2/15 – level profit/loss) – 253/1238 – loss of 196
2—Gary Moore (0/1) – 11/63 – loss of 4
2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/7) – 37/317 – loss of 65
2—Katy Price (First runners this season) – 1/11 – loss of 7
2—Jeremy Scott (1/14 – loss of 6 points) – 24/212 – loss of 70
2—Evan Williams (4/12 +17) – 30/158 +41
2—Laura Young (0/7) – 4/103 – loss of 65
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
65 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Towcester: £198.80 – 5 favourites – 2 winners & 3 unplaced (1 Non runner)
Chelmsford: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar
Southwell: £22.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced