PONTEFRACT – SEPTEMBER 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £104.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract:
Leg 1 (2.20): 5 (Malitia) & 3 (Harrogate)
Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Election Day) & 2 (Briyouni)
Leg 3 (3.25): 8 (Ludorum), 5 (Azzir) & 1 (Kharbetation)
Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Kassia), 5 (Tirania) & 2 (Clon Coulis)
Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Chebsey Beau), 5 (Transpennine Star) & 4 (Tyrell)
Leg 6 (5.05): 7 (Mesbarr) & 6 (Heron)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
Going projection: Good to soft
Radar: Suggests that moderate rain will reach Pontefract by lunchtime
2.20: The favourite stats below make for compulsive reading though something might have to give here with layers offering 5/2 (thereabouts) the field on this occasion. Either way, it would be churlish in the extreme to overlook the Placepot chances of MALITIA and HARROGATE, even though they are drawn wide in stalls eight and thirteen respectively. All that might do is increase their prices which given previous results in this contest, could prove disastrous for bookmakers. We will have to wait and see with bated breath!
Favourite factor: This is one of the strongest races for favourites throughout the entire year at Pontefract, with seven of the last ten market leaders having won. Indeed, the biggest priced winner during the last decade was recorded at just 10/3.
2.50: All ten winners during the study period carried 8-10 or more to victory, statistics which eliminate three horses in the handicap from my enquiries, one of which is via a jockey claim. ELECTION DAY looks the safest Placepot call, whilst noting each way support overnight for BRIYOUNI who will not start at the trade press price of 14/1 in all probability. 8/1 could be the nearer the mark about Kevin Ryan’s four-year-old representative, albeit faster ground would have offered additional confidence according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last six years. All ten winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 10/1.
Record of the course winners in the second event:
1/2—Echo Of Lightning (soft)
1/2—Mt Cool Cash (good to soft)
2/9—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)
3.25: There is not too much to report regarding overnight interest in the race, though 14/1 looks a little too big about the chance of KHARBETATION at the time of writing. David O’Meara saddles six runners at the track and though posting the odd score now and then, the popular trainer will be desperate for more consistent winners by now after a really ordinary season by David’s high standards. LUDORUM is by far the last exposed runner in the field and warrants plenty of respect accordingly, arguably alongside course and distance winner AZZIR who could also go close on the best of his form, especially if the rainclouds swerve Pontefract Park this afternoon.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have snared Placepot positions by winning their respective events. The other pair of market leaders finished well down the field.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/6—Save The Bees (good to firm)
1/1—Alfred Richardson (good to firm)
4.00: Three-year-olds have recorded six victories in the last ten years, stats which include three of the last four winners of this Class2 handicap for fillies. Boasting a course record of 2/2 to her name here at Pontefract, it is hardly surprising that KASSIA have been the subject of each way support since the layers chalked up overnight prices for this contest. Mick Channon’s filly carries an additional four pounds off the relevant mark which looks fair enough given the relevant ease of her victory in the race twelve months ago. I have to adhere to my vintage stats obviously, offering the likes of TIRANIAS and CLON COULIS (preferred in that order) as the main threats this time around.
Favourite factor: Four winning favourites to report during the last decade, with eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2. That said, the two winners were returned at 33/1 & 16/1.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
2/2—Kassia (good & good to firm)
2/6—Sandra’s secret (good & good to firm)
4.30: Here we go (yet) again with the ever present staying contest on a Pontefract card which is just about the only negative vibe I report relating to the lovely west Yorkshire venue. Regular readers will know that I really don’t like these glorified ‘greyhound races’ in which the runners shake hooves as they enter the stalls, before deciding which one of them is going to win today. Believing that I am in a minority of one, I will offer up CHEBSEY BEAU, TRANSPENNINE STAR and TYRELL against their ten rivals before retiring to the bar.
Favourite factor: Two successful clear market leaders have been registered during the last decade alongside two joint favourites. All ten winners during the study period scored at a top price of 11/1.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:
1/2—Almost Gemini (heavy)
1/4—Bulas Belle (good to firm)
1/5—La Fritillaire (good to soft)
2/18—Tuscan Gold (2 x good to firm)
2/19—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)
5.05: The three obvious runners here have all been drawn which adds interest to proceedings. That said, before last year’s trap one raider scored, five of the previous six winners had scored from stalls 6/7/8 whereby connections of MESBARR and HERON have cause for optimism. Hat’s Off To Larry is drawn widest of all in the ten stall and at around 6/4 at the time of writing, I’m willing to oppose Mick Channon’s representative on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Five market leaders have scored during the last decade during which time, eight winners scored at a top price of 6/1. For the record, the other two gold medallists were returned at 50/1 & 10/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—David O’Meara (8/35 +9)
5—Richard Fahey (5/62 +4)
4—Michael Dods (1/21 – loss of 4 points)
3—Mick Channon (1/8 – loss of 5 points)
3—Roger Fell (0/10)
3—Richard Guest (2/12 +19)
3—Micky Hammond (2/22 – loss of 4 points)
2—David Barron (0/5)
2—Robert Cowell (No previous runners this season)
2—Tim Easterby (7/32 +9)
2—Les Eyre (1/9 – loss of 4 points)
2—James Given (2/12 – slight loss)
2—Anthony McCain (No previous runners this season)
2—Karen McLintock (1/4 +37)
2—Amy Murphy (0/1)
2—Jason Ward (0/2)
+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
78 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year: