LUDLOW – MARCH 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £19.90 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 76.9% units went through – 2/9* (Win only)
Race 2: 90.4% of the remaining units when through – 1/10* (Win only)
Race 3: 84.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 13/8
Race 4: 45.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/11* (Win only)
Race 5: 19.3 % of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 14/1 (4/5* unplaced)
Race 6: 71.6% of the units secured the dividend – 4/6* & 3/1
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow:
Leg 1 (2.30): 1 (Michael’s Mount) & 7 (Veiled Secret)
Leg 2 (3.00): 1 (Tree Of Liberty)
Leg 3 (3.35): 1 (Dans Le Vent), 2 (Silver Kayf) & 6 (Stage Summit)
Leg 4 (4.10): 4 (Tornado In Milan), 2 (Space Oddity) & 1 (Just Cameron)
Leg 5 (4.45): 2 (Opening Batsman), 1 (Grandioso) & 5 (Tugboat)
Leg 6 (5.15): 6 (Birch Hill), 1 (Night Of Sin) & 7 (Awake At Midnight)
Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.30: The connections of MICHAEL’S MOUNT and VEILED SECRET could hardly have wished for a better outcome here and the pair look set to lock horns on the turn into the home straight. The pair are listed in order of preference, fully expecting the third horse to pass the jamstick ten seconds or more behind the main protagonists.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have secured Placepot positions but that said, we had to wait until last year’s 2/9 market scored to break the favourite hoodoo from a win perspective.
3.00: All three win only races on the last year’s Placepot card were won by favourites at odds of 10/11, 2/9 & 1/10 and TREE OF LIBERTY looks like being sent off at an even shorter price this time around! Contrasting stats relating to trainer Kerry Lee can be found at the foot of the column today. Kerry’s soft ground course and distance winner cannot be opposed, especially as the ground will still be ‘tacky’ at this stage of the afternoon I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/10 market leader duly obliged by five lengths.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—Tree Of Liberty (soft)
3.35: The Ludlow Executive will be pleased that this new event has attracted a number of leading trainers, though ‘bit parts’ are only conspicuous by their absence if you will excuse my phrasing. Jamie Snowden (saddles course winner DANS LE VENT) has enjoyed a wonderful start to 2018, boasting a 26% strike rate via ten winners which is a great reward for a trainer which still (surprisingly) has to attract his fair share of inmates from my viewpoint. SILVER KAYF and STAGE SUMMIT appear to be the potential jokers in the pack if Jamie and his team are to be denied here, the yard having secured a 35/1 double with their only two runners (at Haydock) yesterday.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.
Record of the course winner in the third event:
1/1—Dans Le Vent (good)
4.10: Although TORNADO IN MILAN ‘only’ boasts a 22% strike rate down the years, the fact remains that the ratio covers nine victories, whilst the Evan Williams inmate had secured an additions sixteen medals, eleven of which were of the silver variety. Richard Johnson takes only his eighth ride for the trainer during the last five years and as all of those assignment were recorded this season, the champion jockey will be anxious to land his first success for the yard this afternoon. For the record, the trainer/jockey bandwagon only teams up once this afternoon. Harry Fry has saddled two of his last four runners to winning effect whereby his seven-year-old raider SPACE ODDITY might prove to be the main threat to the selection this afternoon, providing he does not unseat his partner, as was the case the last day in a two horse event!
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 10/11 market leader brought favourite backers some relief following the complete demise of the previous three jollies who had failed to claim a Placepot position between them.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:
1/6—Tornado In Milan (good to soft)
4.45: TUGBOAT might be a 16/1 chance via the trade press quote this morning but it’s worth noting that two of his last three victories (six in total) have been gained here at Ludlow. Not too many Hunter Chase events compete for the ‘Gold Cup’ at the respective venues but that is the case here and being a ‘spring horse’ (it is officially spring after all – could have fooled me), OPENING BATSMAN is a worthy favourite, even though his strike rate has plummeted down the years. A winner of 5/9 races in March/April to date, it looks like being a ‘drying day’ at Ludlow this afternoon which could bring about his preferred good to soft conditions by flag fall which would be an added bonus. GRANDIOSO (like Tugboat) has a chance to prove he in no back number just yet in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: None of the 4/5, 6/4 & 9/4 favourites have managed to add to the winning tally set by the inaugural winning 9/4 market leader four years ago. Indeed, only the 6/4 favourite managed to add an additional Placepot position to the haul on behalf of the market leaders, which is unusual in Hunter Chase events.
Record of the four course winners in the field:
1/2—Opening Batsman (good to soft)
1/1—Mr Mercurial (soft)
2/5—Tugboat (good & soft)
5.15: Philip Hobbs is still struggling to leave behind an extremely poor set of results this winter by his high standards. Indeed, Philip’s last fourteen runners have all been beaten whereby AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT can only be offered a Placepot chance which would not have been the case had Philip been firing in all cylinders. One trainer’s loss is another’s gain as the saying goes, whereby Sophie Leech (BIRCH HILL) and Nick Williams (NIGHT OF SIN) might prove to be the main beneficiaries this time around.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new event on the Ludlow programme.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Specific stats for Ludlow on Thursday:
It’s unfortunate that Tree Of Liberty is being quoted as a 1/33 chance in places this morning as trainer Kerry Lee boasts stats of 8/36 at the track in recent years.
That said, Kerry’s ratio since the turn of the year stands at 7/61 (a poor return by her standards) whereby the ‘mortgage’ money might best be left where it is at present.