WINCANTON - NOVEMBER 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £28.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Sunday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (12.20): 7 (Somerset Jem), 10 (Daytime Ahead) & 8 (Without Frontier)
Leg 2 (12.50): 7 (Valpone Jelois), 4 (Dubawi) & 1 (Buckhorn Timothy)
Leg 3 (1.25): 5 (Cucklington), 4 (Water Wagtail) & 1 (Drumviredy)
Leg 4 (2.00): 7 (Dreamcatching ) & 5 (See You Well)
Leg 5 (2.35): 5 (Captain Cattistock), 4 (Canelo) & 9 (Storm Home)
Leg 6 (3.10): 2 (Dalaman) & 4 (Lady Longshot)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: There was plenty of rain here in the west-country last night whereby the ground could be testing at Wincanton this afternoon, albeit the course is around 40 miles south of us here in Bristol. Last year’s form is best forgotten as far as SOMERSET JEM is concerned but as a winner on soft and heavy ground thus far, Kevin Bishop’s course winner is the first name on the team sheet. Although a soft ground winner here at Wincanton, last night’s rain (if it fell in the relevant part of Somerset) might have gone against Kentford Myth, whereby slight preference is for DAYTIME AHEAD and WITHOUT FRONTIER.
Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one successful favourite at 15/8 which scored twelve months ago.
Record of the course winners in the field:
2/6—Kentford Myth (good & soft)
1/5—Somerset Jem (soft)
1/2—Daytime Ahead (heavy)
2/11—Karl Marx (2 x good)
12.50: Soft ground winner VALPONE JELOIS attempts to become the third consecutive winner for Paul Nicholls in this event and even though Paul’s four-year-old is hardly one of the stable stars, Paul will have had lots of options to maintain his good record in the contest. DUBAWI ISLAND is the ‘dark horse’ in the race, whilst BUCKHORN TIMOTHY completes my trio against the other five contenders in this ‘dead eight’ event.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders have has finished in the frame (runner up) to date.
1.25: CUCKLINGTON and WATER WAGTAIL are being backed overnight to the exclusion of the rest of the field and it will be very disappointing if both horses finish out of the frame from my viewpoint. You can expect the Venetia Williams to rev up several notches with the rain falling more consistently now, especially in the west of the country. Should money arrive for dual soft ground winner DRUMVIREDY at some stage before flagfall, the support would be worth heeding in a race which should not prove difficult to win.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wincanton card.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/4—Water Wagtail (good to soft)
1/5—Shanann Star (soft)
2.00: Local trainer Paul Nicholls boasts a staggering strike rate of 34% over the last five years here at Wincanton, via no less than 78 winners! Connections of Paul’s four-year-old representative DREAMCATCHING will not be worried about the conditions, as Harry Cobden’s mount has won on different types of ground already despite his short career. There has been overnight support for I SEE YOU WELL and this pair are my slightly speculative duo with which to go to war in the fourth leg of our favourite wager. The two horses represent the four-year-old vintage, the youngest in the line up by two years (plus), whereby untapped potential hopefully remains to be seen against older horses who might just have their own ideas about the game by now.
Favourite factor: Both of last year’s inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured Placepot positions by snaring gold and bronze medals
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
2/2—Dreamcatching (good to firm & soft)
2.35: Paul Nicholls is the man to lead with here, as the local trainer has won ten of the last 18 renewals of this novices’ hurdle event. Paul does not have the race at his mercy on this occasion however, as his representative CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK is joined by CANELO and SOTRM HOME. Alan King secured a short priced double yesterday and his Mahler gelding Canelo looks to be the main threat to Paul’s raider.
Favourite factor: 17 of the 18 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period. Nine market leaders snared gold (six of them trained by Paul Nicholls at Ditcheat).
3.10: Despite the unimpressive favourite stats below, DALAMAN stands out from the small crowd here, with only LADY LONGSHOT expected to get near the market leader at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Just two favourites (one clear – one joint) have won via the last nine contests.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Thursday followed by this season’s stats at the course + profits losses accrued:
5 runners—Colin Tizzard (4/22 – loss of 27 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (1/10 – loss of 3 points)
3—Seamus Mullins (0/1)
3—Paul Nicholls (4/20 +2)
3—Venetia Williams (0/3)
3—Richard Woollacott (No previous runners this season)
2—Alexandra Dunn (0/1)
2—Richenda Ford (0/2)
2—Harry Fry (2/5 +4)
2—Emma Lavelle (0/7)
2—Neil Mulholland (0/9)
2—Jackie Du Plessis (No previous runners)
2—Jeremy Scott (1/7 – loss of 3 points)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
54 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Market Rasen: £213.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Chelmsford: £261.50 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Newcastle: £400.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced