Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 24th August

YORK – EBOR MEETING – DAY 2 - 2017

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £24.90 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 3 (Hey Jonesy), 20 (Silver Starlight), 7 (Dahik) & 1 (De Bruyne Horse)

Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Special Purpose) & 3 (Madeline)

Leg 3 (3.00): 15 (El Hayem), 14 (Ronald R), 5 (Flaming Spear) & 7 (G K Chesterton)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Enable)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Mori), 5 (Aljezeera) & 9 (Ouja)

Leg 6 (4.50): 2 (Cristal Fizz), 15 (Caridade), 3 (Breakable) & 1 (Lincoln Rocks)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: It’s worth mentioning to ‘novice punters’ that although 20 runners go to post in Thursday’s opening event (even with some bookmakers offering a fourth place from an each way perspective), Placepot investors only have three chances of gaining a position if they are to successfully make it through to the second leg of our favourite wager  Seven of the last eight winners have been drawn in double figure stall numbers, as have twelve of the last fifteen gold medallists. That said, runners were coming up the middle of the track in general terms on the opening day whereby any bias may have been negated by yesterday’s mid-morning deluge of rain.  Kevin Ryan (HEY JONESY) has secured two of the last six prizes whilst saddling the fourth placed horse four years ago alongside the 20/1 runner up in 2015.  A winner on good to soft ground already, HEY JONESY is the first name on my team sheet on Thursday.  Any value in Great Prospector has long since gone and at the odds on offer this morning I prefer to play the likes of DE BRUYNE HORSE alongside two outsiders who could sneak into the frame hailing from in-form stables, namely SILVER STARLIGHT (Tim Easterby) and DAHIK (Roger Varian)

Favourite factor: Six of the last fourteen favourites have prevailed, whilst eleven of the 20 market leaders to date have secured toteplacepot positions.  A real toteplacepot buster of an event if ever there was one, with five of the last eight favourites having failed to figure, whilst recent winners included those returned at 25/1-12/1-18/1-12/1-10/1-9/1-17/2-13/2 during the last twelve years.

Course winners in the opening event on the card:

1/1—Hey Jonesy (good to soft)

1/6—Marnie James (good to firm)

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result shown first):

4-14-19 (18 ran-good to firm)

14-12-8 (18 ran-good to soft

13-3-8 (19 ran-good)

17-2-7 (19 ran-good to firm)

17-4-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

19-11-2 (20 ran-good to soft)

15-10-5 (18 ran-good)

13-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

2-11-6 (20 ran-good)

11-9-16 (19 ran-soft)

10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)

12-17-19 (22 ran-good)

5-15-13 (22 ran-good)

17-18-21 (21 ran-good)

22-20-17(22 ran-good to firm)

4-10-3 (22 ran-good)

6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

11-4-20 (22 ran-good)

 

2.25: Richard Hannon (the team have secured three of the last nine contests) has declared Natural with place claims, though more likely winners include SPECIAL PURPOSE and MADELINE from my viewpoint.  The latter named raider beat Natural with plenty to spare at Newbury recent under today’s conditions and there seems no reason why Roger Varian’s Kodiac filly should fail to confirm the form given that the pair meet on identical terms.  SPECIAL PURPOSE represents William Haggas with definite claims, the trainer having dominated this meeting during the last six years.  It’s worth remembering that William won with two of his runners at York’s Dante meeting back in the spring, having gained another nine victories this term on the Knavesmire.

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 19 renewals have been won by horses starting at 15/2 or less, stats which includes eight winning favourites.  12 of the market leaders during the study period have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

7-2-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-1-5 (9 ran-good)

9-3-5 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-2-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

10-8-9 (11 ran-good to soft)

5-7-4 (8 ran-good)

8-4-10 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-6-9 (10 ran-good)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

2-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

8-4-2 (8 ran-soft)

9-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

6-3 (7 ran-good)

6-9-3 (9 ran-good)

1-5-9 (10 ran-firm)

10-6-1 (9 ran-good)

 

3.00: Three and four-year-olds have claimed 13 of the last 15 renewals between them, with the older horses leading 9-4 during the period.  Last year’s sole junior raider finished second and with just the one representative again this year, RONALD R jumps off the page, from a Placepot perspective at least.  The ground is an unknown factor to take into account, though Michael Bell is the best judge of that I guess and if he saddles the Nathanial colt later this afternoon, I will be having a saver on Ryan Moore’s mount in all probability.  The odd rogue shower (seemingly) might develop at York early on in the afternoon but if the Knavesmire continues to dry out, EL HAYEM would have to be included in my mix, arguably alongside FLAMING SPEAR who remains something of a ‘dark horse’ on turf.  There will be worse 28/1 chances this afternoon than soft ground winner G K CHESTERTON I’ll wager, especially if one of the afore mentioned showers arrives with plenty of the wet stuff being dumped onto the Knavesmire turf.

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Favourite factor: Favourites have a fair record in this event, given the nature of the contest.  12 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include three winners.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-17-2-18 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-4 (18 ran-good to soft)

18-9-5-12 (19 ran-good)

13-3-15-9 (16 ran-good to firm)

1-12-9-11 (20 ran-good to firm)

16-17-1-20 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-10-3-2 (17 ran-good)

14-5-11-7 (19 ran-good to firm)

11-12-5-4 (18 ran-good)

12-19-3-17 (17 ran-soft)

1-8-5-3 (19 ran-good to firm)

4-12-3 (15 ran-soft)

6-5-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-18-20-3 (18 ran-good to firm)

2-4-1-3 (17 ran-good)

3-4-5-2 (16 ran-good)

11-9-6-5 (20 ran-good)

11-2-10 (14 ran-firm)

 

3.40: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last eighteen renewals, statistics which include seven of the last eleven contests.  Roger Varian’s NEZWAAH is a much improved filly of late whereby connections can feel a little bit disappointed to run into a filly of Enable’s ability in the feature race on day two of the meeting.  The win for Ulysses yesterday simply confirms the measure of John Gosden’s outstanding thoroughbred ENABLE who would probably swamp the colts again here if they were allowed to compete.  Yes, ENABLE was receiving a stone from Sir Michael’s ‘Juddmonte’ winner but the manner of her victory at Ascot took my breath away as she quickened in the style of a rare talent.  It’s very unusual for yours truly to opt for a ‘banker’ in Placepot terms at York’k Ebor meeting, though that is exactly what ENABLE is this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have prevailed in the last 20 years, though just six of the other eleven market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.

 

4.15: Three-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 19 renewals of this event, statistics which include 13 of the last 16 contests. Luca Cumani won four of the first six renewals of this Listed 'Galtres Stakes', though his 1999 winner Innuendo was the last of his gold medallists to date.  That said, Luca saddled the 6/1 runner up a couple of years ago and the popular trainer has declared his Frankel filly ALJEZEERA on this occasion.  Luca has been in fine form of late (as opposed to earlier in the year) with five of his last 18 runners having won, statistics which include a 17/1 double via just three runners on Saturday.  Today’s two runners on the card are his first representatives this week.  For the record, his earlier runner today (El Vip in the third event) is not without an each way chance.  All that said, it might only be the conditions that stops MORI in her tracks here, Sir Michael Stoute’s Frankel filly having registered a fine victory in Royal Ascot’s ‘Ribblesdale’ event the last day. Stan James are out on a limb by offering OUJA at 25/1 if you fancy speculating that John Gosden’s Sea The Stars filly can out run her odds this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  13 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via the last 18 renewals.

 

4.50: Three-year-olds have won five of the six contests, whilst vintage representatives have secured 13/20 available toteplacepot positions.  Three-year-old's are 4/6 to extend the trend in the Placepot finale and I have every reason to believe that CRISTAL FIZZ (the only contender to possess ticks in both of the trend boxes) will go very close to winning this event, given the fact that the last five winners having carried a minimum burden of 9-1 to winning effect.  William Haggas takes no chances with his runners (Theydon Grey was withdrawn yesterday on account of changing ground conditions) but having lost out on Wednesday via the deluge, William finds potential compensation here as his dual winner has already won under the projected going via just four assignments thus far.  BREAKABLE in not without a chance given that just three horses ‘qualify’ via the weight trend, though David O’Meara’s LINCOLN ROCKS might do well to reach the frame from the top of the handicap.  Further down the list, the chance of CARIDADE is respected after a really impressive Redcar win last time out, not that I am a fan of form lines that evolve from the Cleveland venue as a general rule.

Favourite factor: Five of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (5/1-10/3-5/2) winners.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (2 or more) on the York card on Thursday – followed by their ‘successes’ at York on Wednesday:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (1 Placed at 10/1)

5—David O’Meara (1 placed at 6/1*)

5—Sir Michael Stoute (Winner at 4/1)

4—Tim Easterby (Winner at 10/1 & 1 placed at 11/1)

4—William Haggas

4—Richard Hannon

4—Kevin Ryan (1 placed at 12/1)

4—Roger Varian

3—Brian Ellison

3—John Gosden (Winner at 4/6*)

3—Mark Johnston

2—Charlie Appleby

2—Michael Bell

2—Clive Cox

2—Luca Cumani

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—Charlie Hills (1 placed at 7/1)

2—Michael Meade

2—Aidan O’Brien (2 placed at 9/2 & 5/2*)

2—Hugo Palmer

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

82 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £78.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Hamilton: £88.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Fontwell: £7.10 – 6 favourites: 5 winners & 1 placed

Stratford: £38.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

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