Placepot pointers – Thursday 25 August

MUSSELBURGH - AUGUST 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £286.80 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced) 
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Lucky Mistake) & 5 (Lady Molly)
Leg 2 (2.30): 3 (Tennessee Rose), 5 (Kilbaha Lady) & 7 (Lil's Affair)
Leg 3 (3.00): 8 (Magical Lasso) & 5 (Intensified)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Neuf Des Coeurs) & 3 (Introductory)
Leg 5 (4.00): 6 (Ellaal), 5 (Argaki) & 9 (Invermere)
Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Beadlam), 4 Canford Belle) & 5 (Fine Example)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
 
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
 
 
2.00: LADY MOLLY would not have be an overly precocious type to go close at the first time of asking in this grade/company, with LUCKY MISTAKE and DAKOTA GOLD likely to lead home the experienced runners.  The first named beaten favourite was turned over at odds of 1/2 but there is every chance that Richard Fahey's Fast Company gelding met something of a tartar at Newcastle, especially as the winner went on to frank the unbeaten run in no uncertain terms next time up. 
Favourite factor: All three (11/10-13/8-3/1) favourites have missed out on toteplacepot races to date, the three contests having been won by horses sent off at 5/1-3/1-9/4. 
 
2.30: Bryan Smart enjoyed a fine record with his two-year-olds here at Musselburgh in days of old, whereby it would come as no surprise to yours truly to witness a decent effort from LIL'S AFFAIR.  Bryan's record in Edinburgh with two-year-olds at one stage were unmatched by any trainer at any track in the land and it be good to witness his Lilbourne Lad filly outrun her odds should that scenario evolve.  I guess that TENNESSEE ROSE and KILBAHA LADY will give Bryan and connections the most to worry about at the business end of proceedings.       
Favourite factor: . 
2016 stats for represented trainers in the Nursery sector at all tracks (ratios up to and including Monday's sport):
0/5--David Barron (Mulwith)
No runners--Lawrence Mullaney (Albizu Campos)
2/13--Tom Dascombe (Tennessee Rose)
0/8--Tim Easterby (Our Charlie Brown)
1/7--Nigel Tinkler (Kilbaha Lady)
1/4--Keith Dalgleish (Our Lois)
1/4--Bryan Smart (Lil's Affair)
1/9--Karl Burke (Lavender Skye)
3.00: I tend to side with young horses against their elders in poor races particularly, hoping that that they have not picked up bad habits as three-year-olds.  Keith Dalgleish saddles the only vintage representative in MAGICAL LASSO and though the Monsieur Bond gelding has failed to pull up any trees yet, this has to be an opportunity to get in the medals.  Others to consider include INTENSIFIED and RONYA.        
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 9/2 favourite missed out on a Placepot position behind horses which filled the frame which were returned at 6/1-8/1-17/2.      
Musselburgh record of runners in the third race:  
2/10--Nelson's Bay (good to firm & soft)
3.30: Iain Jardine has enjoyed some great results this month and another winner could come his way here with the improving NEUF DES COEURS with Clifford Lee taking off a useful seven pounds in the plate.  Clifford has been showing all his undoubted skills of late too and the pair have an irresistible look about them in this grade/company, with INTRODUCTORY likely to be the main threat, especially if the Keith Dalgleish raider can transfer some useful form over from all weather surfaces to turf.
Favourite factor: Last year's 11/4 market sneaked into the frame behind horses that filled the forecast positions at odds of 8/1 & 6/1.   
Musselburgh record of runners in the fourth race:   
2/12--Neuf Des Coeurs (good & good to firm)
 
4.00: Course and distance winner ARGAKI is due to come good any time now I'll wager, though the Musselburgh ratio of 4/10 boasted by ELLAAL catches the eye, especially with Ruth Carr's stats in Edinburgh standing at 7/21 before Wednesday's sport was contested at the track.  INVERMERE usually runs her race and is expected to figure prominently enough to get into the money.       
Favourite factor: Last year's 2/1 duly obliged in the first running of the contest.      
Musselburgh record of runners in the fifth race:  
1/1--Ginger Jack (good to firm)
1/5--Argaki (good)
4/10--Ellaal (2 x good + good to firm & good to soft) 
 
4.30: David Loughnane has made a decent start to his training career and BEADLAM has definite claims here, though I accept that Canford Belle is entitled to finish alongside according to the form book.  David's form tilts the balance from my viewpoint, with FINE EXAMPLE expected to reward each way investors.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite last year finished well down the field behind horses that snared Placepot positions at 8/1-5/1-17/2.    
 
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
 
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Thursday:
7--Keith Dalgleish (4/43 at Musselburgh this season - winners at 11/1-10/1-3/1-11/4)
4--Richard Fahey (4/30 - winners at 11/1-7/1-5/2*-2/1*)
4--Linda Perratt (0/29)
3--Michael Dods (2/8 - winners at 17/2 & 13/8*)
3--Jim Goldie (2/37 - winners at 16/1 & 11/2)
3--David O'Meara (1/20 - winner at 7/1)
2--Rebecca Bastiman (0/8)
2--Ruth Carr (7/21 - winners at prices ranging between 2/1 & 16/1)
2--Tom Dascombe (0/1)
2--Iain Jardine (5/26 - winners at 10/1-7/1-11/2-3/1-3/1)
2--David Loughnane (0/4)
2--Chris O'Dwyer (---)
2--John David Riches (1/9 - winner at 16/1)
2--Dianne Sayer (1/6 - winner at 3/1*)
2--Jason Ward (---)
2--Tracy Waggott (1/5 - winner at 6/4*)
2--John Wainwright (---)
+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
63 declared runners
 
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell: £176.80 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced
Leicester: £1,089.90 - 11 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 6 unplaced
Sedgefield: £10.80 - 7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £419.69 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
 
Musselburgh overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.00 & 2.30:
2.00:
3/14-- Michael Dods (Dakota Gold)
No runners--Chris O'Dwyer (Hueston)
15/59--Richard Fahey (Lucky Mistake)
No runners--Jason Ward (Monte Cinq)
11/68--Keith Dalgleish (Lady Molly)
0/9--Paul Midgley (Yorkshiredebut)
0/1--Alistair Whillans (Peny Arcade)
2.30:
4/18--David Barron (Mulwith)
No runners--Lawrence Mullaney (Albizu Campos)
1/6--Tom Dascombe (Tennessee Rose)
2/18--Tim Easterby (Our Charlie Brown)
0/4--Nigel Tinkler (Kilbaha Lady)
11/68--Keith Dalgleish (Our Lois)
3/18--Bryan Smart (Lil's Affair)
1/7--Karl Burke (Lavender Skye)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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