WARWICK – JANUARY 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £7.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Warwick:
Leg 1 (12.55): 3 (Fields Of Fortune), 2 (Falcon Son) & 8 (Swaffham Bulbeck)
Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Molly The Dolly) & 4 (Sensulano)
Leg 3 (2.00): 4 (Yanmare), 3 (Whiskey Chaser) & 5 (The Artful Cobbler)
Leg 4 (2.35): 2 (Crucial Role), 3 (Polydora) & 4 (Fingerontheswitch)
Leg 5 (3.10): 8 (Grandturgeon) & 6 (Poole Master)
Leg 6 (3.45): 1 (Granard) & 3 (Not Normal)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
12.55: The stats and fact at the foot of the column can be misleading at times or at least, you have to sift your way through the ratio and draw your own conclusions. Take Alan King’s record here this season as an example; given that the trainers boasts 7/18 figures though a minor loss to level stakes has been recorded. This suggests that Alan wins with his short priced horses whereby FIELDS OF FORTUNE would be interesting if money arrives for Wayne Hutchinson’s mount, though that has not been the case so far this morning, albeit ‘early doors’. Others of interest include FALCON SON and Olly Murphy’s newcomer SWAFFHAM BULBECK who is the trainer’s only raider anywhere in the country today.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 market leader was pulled up, the race going to the 6/4 second favourite. The following 13/8 favourite also missed out on a Placepot position, before the next two (3/10 and even money) market leaders obliged.
1.25: The soft/heavy conditions should not stop MOLLY THE DOLLY in her tracks, albeit there is a semblance of support coming in for SENSULANO at the time of writing, with the other trio all proving very easy to back in the dead of night. That said, six pounds might not be enough to draw the pair together in the run to the line with Dan Skelton’s course and distance winner progressing along the right lines.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have won (2/1 & 5/4), though the other 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing.
Course records of the course winners in the second event:
1/1—Molly The Dolly (good to soft)
2.00: The cynic in yours truly suggests that the safest bet here would be to take a decent price about of the one ‘dead eight’ contenders jumping ship before entering the paddock. Upwards and onward however, by informing that YANMARE was beaten in this event last year at odds of 4/5 in a win only contest. Water Wagtail is becoming increasingly frustrating, whereby preference is for dual heavy ground winner WHISKEY CHASER and THE ARTFUL COBBLER who boasts a 1/3 record under heavy conditions.
Favourite factor: Nine of the sixteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
Course records of the course winners in third race:
1/3—Milicent Silver (heavy)
1/4—Water Wagtail (good to soft)
2.35: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-5 have secured five of the nine available Placepot positions, statistics which include two (8/1 & 9/2) of the three winners thus far. Only two of the nine declarations ‘qualify’, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CRUCIAL ROLE over POLYDORA, though both horses are entered into my Placepot mix. FINGERONTHESWIRCH often plods round into a place when completing the course whereby his double figure quote this morning catches the eye, though only from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured a medal of each colour in claiming Placepot positions along the way.
3.10: GRANDTURGEON looks difficult to kick out of the frame in this Hunter Chase event, especially with Alex Edwards in the saddle, given that I am invariably swayed by adept pilots in these events. That is a factor to take with you as the Hunter Chase season gather momentum from here on in. Course winner POOLE MASTER will represent better value that the ex Paul Nicholls inmate Mon Parrain from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: All five favourites have obliged in this Hunter Chase event at odds of 1/2-11/10-5/4-9/4-3/1.
Course records of the course winners in fifth on the card:
1/4—Poole Master (soft)
3.45: GRANARD represents ‘lucky owners’ for Nigel Tiston-Davies in the finale and Daryl Jacob’s mount would not have to be anything out of the ordinary to go very close in this grade/company I’ll wager. NOT NORMAL sets the standard from what we have witnessed to date, albeit the ‘high jump bar’ has not been raised very far off the ground as yet!
Favourite factor: Both (11/10 & 11/4) favourites sneaked into the respective frames last year via the inaugural divisions of this event, landing Placepot positions via bronze medals.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Warwick card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
4 runners—Dan Skelton (8/29 – loss of 1 point) – 27/80 +14
4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/10 – loss of 3) – 22/140 – loss of 45
3—Henry Daly (2/6 +7) – 8/56 – loss of 15
2—Claire Dyson (First runners at Warwick this season) – 1/17 – loss of 12
2—Alan King (7/18 – loss of 1) – 30/118 – loss of 37
2—Emma Lavelle (1/4 +8) – 2/39 – loss of 17
2—Fergal O’Brien (0/7) – 3/47 – loss of 8
2—Bill Turner (0/3) – 0/4
+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
75 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Kelso: This is a new meeting
Southwell: £12,993.20 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Chelmsford: This is a new meeting