LUDLOW - OCTOBER 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £363.80 (3 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow:
Leg 1 (1.55): 10 (St John’s), 9 (Sgroppino) & 3 (Creswell Legend)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Flashjack) & 3 (Seven Kingdoms)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Darebin), 3 (Kapstadt) & 4 (Going For Broke)
Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Drinks Interval), 6 (Majestic Moll) & 2 (Skewiff)
Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Lined With Silver), 3 (Grand Coureur) & 6 (Monderon)
Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Banditry) & 4 (Captain Felix)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Ludlow five year record relating to this corresponding meeting:
36 races – 16 winning favourites – 34/36 winners scored at a top price of 9/1
Average Placepot dividend: £632.14
Highest dividend: £2,234.80 (2015) - Lowest dividend: £91.80 (2012)
Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:
3 winners—Evan Williams (2/1*, 13/8* & 10/11*) – 2 runners today:
St John’s (1.55) & Skewiff (3.35)
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: The NH season really begins to take shape now with the two day meeting at Cheltenham starting tomorrow, quickly followed by Aintree's first (proper) meeting since Grand National day being staged on Sunday, notwithstanding a half decent card at Wincanton. In the meantime we have to make do with Ludlow, but each and every track in the land has its attractions and this venue is situated in a really beautiful part of the country. Evan Williams is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this race to date whereby ST JOHN’S is offered up against shorter priced horses in the field, the pick of which (from a value for money perspective) might prove to be SGROPPINO and CRESWELL LEGEND.
Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured five gold medals and one of the silver variety, with just one market leader missing out on a Placepot position thus far.
2.30: Only eight seven-year-olds have contested this event to date, claiming four toteplacepot positions in the process, vintage representatives having won two of the contests at 8/1 & 5/2*. Horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured nine of the fourteen available Placepot positions and with FLASHJACK boasting ticks in both of the trend boxes representing the successful partnership of Daly/Johnson down the years, Henry’s raider is the call. Hoping (against hope perhaps) that the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact, I’m opting for SEVEN KINGDOMS as the main threat, with the David Dennis representative at home under these conditions which has been noted by overnight exchange players.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have won their respective events at 5/2 & 15/8, though search parties are still out looking for the other three market leaders that missed out on Placepot positions.
3.00: The type of race that I absolutely love from a Placepot perspective, with just two potential places up for grabs in a six strong ‘short field’ event. This is the type of event that we find so often on NH cards at Sandown which historically produce great Placepot dividends pro ratia to the number of runners on a card. Gary Moore has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect, securing 35 points of level stake profit into the bargain! Gary has offered the green light to DAREBIN with an obvious chance, though there are plenty of other pointers in a fascinating contest. Ian Williams (KAPSTADT) is another trainer on the crest of a wave with three of his last four runners having won, with the relevant beaten horse having been sent off as a 66/1 chance. Overnight money has arrived for GOING FOR BROKE and I will offer up this trio against the other three contenders. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Both favourites had failed to claim toteplacepot positions before the last two (4/9 & 5/2) market leaders prevailed.
3.35: Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date whilst securing six of the eleven available Placepot positions. DRINKS INTERVAL and MAJESTIC MOLL are marginally preferred to fellow vintage representative SKEWIFF this time around, though all three contenders find a place in my permutation.
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions having won their respective events at 11/8 & 11/10.
4.05: With so much to do to set up a busy weekend of fixtures, something has to give and on this occasion, I have to offer this amateur rider event short shrift. Thankfully, there has been interest in three horses overnight, namely LINED WITH SILVER, GRAND COUREUR and MONDERON.
Favourite factor: Two of five favourites to date (via four renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (4/1) winner.
Record of the course winner in the field:
4.35: Ian Williams (BANDITRY) has saddled a winner from two runners in this event during its brief history and his five-year-old Iffraaj gelding should secure a Placepot position at the very least in this grade/company. BANDITRY makes his handicap debut here following a decent victory on this type of ground at Southwell the last day. It’s always good to see horses coming into the NH sector who were still progressing on the flat and his last official mark of 94 on the level suggests that he should be able to compete in half decent races in this discipline. Fellow last time out winners CAPTAIN FELIX and EXCELLENT TEAM should prove to be the main beneficiaries if Ian’s raider fails to impress.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites to have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 11/4 & 5/6 via three renewals.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
2/2—Peruvian Bleu (2 x good)
1/2—Excellent Team (good to firm)
1/3—King Alfonso (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track during the last five years + profit/losses accrued:
4 runners—Alexandra Dunn (3/16 – loss of 2 points)
3—Robin Dickin (2/50 – loss of 16 points)
2—Henry Daly (17/90 – loss of 19 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (23/94 – loss of 8 points)
2—Emma Lavelle (1/8 – loss of 3 points)
2—Charlie Longsdon (5/51 – loss of 29 points)
2—Neil Mulholland (4/28 – loss of 9 points)
2—Dan Skelton (20/81 – loss of 5 points)
2—Colin Tizzard (3/23 – loss of 8 points)
2—Tom Vaughan (8/66 +9)
2—Evan Williams (36/213 – loss of 34 points)
2—Ian Wiillims (12/55 - +4)
2—Nick Williams (3/19 – loss of 7 points)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £61.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Chelmsford: £345.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Southwell: £60.60 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced