SANDOWN - JULY 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £7.10 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 6 placed – 1 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Dutch Desire) & 6 (May Girl)
Leg 2 (2.30): 3 (Joshua Reynolds), 1 (Janszoon) & 6 (Orsina)
Leg 3 (3.05): 8 (So Hi Society), 1 (Billesdon Brook) & 3 (Cape Bunting)
Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Eynhallow) & 1 (Silver Ghost)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Many Waters), 3 (Paradise Cove) & 12 (England Expects)
Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Finale), 3 (Kyllachys Tale) & 5 (Testbourne)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Five year study of this corresponding meeting:
30 races – 14 winning favourites – 28/30 winners scored at a top price of 9/1
Average Placepot dividend: £57.00 – average during the last 4 years: £11.53
Best trainer stats on the Thursday of this two day meeting:
5 winners—Andrew Balding (9/1, 7/1, 9/2, 11/4 & 2/1*) – 2 sets of doubles at 79/1 (last year) & 19/1 in 2013
4 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (9/2, 6/5*, Evens* & 1/5*) – includes a 10/1 double in 2014
3 winners—Michael Bell (11/2, 9/2 & 5/4*)
*Thanks for the kind messages regarding yesterday’s 40/1 winner for Andrew Balding – who has dominated this two day fixture during the last five years, as mentioned yesterday!
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: William Haggas boasts a phenomenal 38% strike rate with the juvenile this season via 14 winners, whereby his newcomer DUTCH DESIRE is the first name on the team sheet, especially from an advantageous trap one position. Three of the experienced runners have shown decent form already, though only MAY GIRL is fancied to run the selection close, despite the current (skinny) 2/1 odds on offer about Princess Keira. That said, I guess that trainer Mick Quinn (Princess Keira) thinks a lot of his Acclamation filly as this is only Mick’s third runner at Sandown during the last five years.
Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.
2.30: Charlie Appleby saddled last year’s 7/1 winner and there is a difference of opinion in the bookmaking ranking about Charlie’s raider JANSZOON twelve months on. Available at 9/2 in a few places, Charlie’s Dubawi gelding was a decent winner on this type of ground earlier in the season and is as short at 10/3 with Coral. I can understand that John Gosden’s impressive recent Newmarket winner JOSHUA REYNOLDS is the favourite for the contest, though a difference of 15% of the market chalked up by some layers looks extravagant. Don’t be too quick to write off ORSINO down at the bottom of the weights. Andrew Balding’s record at this meeting is there for all to see, whilst it’s worth noting that Andrew has won this event three times via the last eight renewals in which the stable was represented. John Gosden’s ‘second string’ Great Sound adds interest to proceedings (especially as John’s Galileo colt has won on soft ground), though John has not saddled a winner on the second day of this meeting during the last five years.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last 20 years. 18 of the 26 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period. All that said, it’s worth noting that last year’s 8/13 market leader was beaten.
3.05: This 'Star Stakes' invariably takes some winning and with plenty of horses being backed overnight, that scenario looks likely to continue. BILLESDON BROOK, SO HI SOCIETY and even 40/1 chance CAMPION (in a place or two) are being supported at the time of writing, still potentially offering better value for money than CAPE BUNTING perhaps, from a Placepot perspective at least. If I had to opt for one runner, it would be SO HI SOCIETY given her soft ground win alongside the fact that trainer Archie Watson can do little wrong at this moment in time. Her five length defeat in a Group 2 contest last time out arguably sets the standard in the race for good measure. I can’t let the race pass without a small mention for Whitefountainfairy who represents Andrew Balding.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have prevailed in the last 20 years, whilst 18 of the 25 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
3.40: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals (and eight of the last ten), yet only EYNHALLOW represents the juniors on this occasion (trainers take note)! Although the ground will be slower than Roger Charlton’s Nathanial raider encounetered when posting a course and distance victory here at Sandown only last week, the effort remains locked in the memory bank and it will surely take something out of the ordinary to lower his colours today, especially with a half decent five pound claimer in the saddle to (almost) negate the relevant penalty. That said, there has been plenty of support for SILVER GHOST overnight and I expect this pair to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest. EYNHALLOW demands the vote in receipt of up to ten pounds from his main rival, according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Just four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. That said, 18 of the last 19 winners were returned at 8/1 or less.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/3—Inke (good to soft)
4.10: The 14/1 quote in the trade press about ENGLAND EXPECTS might look a tad fanciful if the overnight support for Karl Burke’s raider is maintained. Seemingly with plenty to on the form book (especially on ground slower than good), Karl Burke’s raider is offered respect given the trainer’s 3/8 record at the track this year, figures which have produced 23 points of level stake profit. More logical winners further up the handicap include MANY WATERS and PARADISE COVE.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.
4.45: Another Karl Burke outsider on the card not to write off too quickly is his 22/1 chance TESTBOURNE in the Placepot finale, given that Karl’s Big Bad Bob gelding was withdrawn from a race at the track yesterday on account of yielding conditions. If any showers in the area miss the Esher venue, Martin Harley’s mount could outrun his odds. That said, the race would take on a different complexion entirely if Karl withdraws his three-year-old again, as we would be left a ‘win only’ contest to assess, which could make a great deal of difference to the eventual Placepot dividend (which we secured again yesterday). FINALE and KYLLACHYS TALE make most appeal of the remaining quartet.
Favourite factor: Both of last year’s inaugural 9/2 joint favourites finished in the frame, though they had to give best to the 11/2 winner.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Thursday + recorded winners on the second day of this two day fixture during the last five years:
5 runners—Karl Burke
5—Richard Hannon (1 winner at 6/1)
3—Andrew Balding (5 winners at 9/1, 7/1, 9/2, 11/4 & 2/1*)
3—Eve Johnson Houghton
2—Harry Dunlop (1 winner at 28/1)
2—William Haggas (2 winners at 11/2 & 5/2*)
1—Charlie Appleby (1 winner at 7/1)
1—Michael Bell (3 winners at 11/2, 9/2 & 5/4*)
1—Mark Johnston (1 winner at 9/4*)
1—Sir Michael Stoute (4 winners at 9/2, 6/5*, Evens* & 1/5*)
1—Ian Williams (1 winner at 4/1)
+ 22 other trainers who also saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £83.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Newbury: £16.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Yarmouth: £15.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Worcester: £26.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced