NEWMARKET – SEPTEMBER 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £1,462.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Ghaiyyath) & 17 (Tiffin Top)
Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Rastrelli), 4 (Maksab) & 5 (Rhosneigr)
Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Summer Chorus), 6 (First Dance) & 5 (Sayem)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Albishr), 2 (Elayqam) & 3 (Fajjaj)
Leg 5 (4.20): 10 (UAE King) & 8 (Face The Facts)
Leg 6 (4.55): 8 (Roar), 2 (Jaameh) & 3 (Saunter)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: The 7/4 trade press quote about GHAIYYATH looks generous in the extreme this morning with layers offering a top price of 5/4 at the time of writing. If the two prices do not seem a world apart to the untrained eye, the differential is similar to a horse being backed from 9/1 into 9/2. With relevant trainer Charlie Appleby having secured a 12/1 double on the opening fixture of this three day meeting last year, the majority of punters will be latching onto his Dubawi colt I’ll wager. There was plenty to like about his third placed debut effort, with connections probably having most to fear from TIFFIN TOP on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured Placepot positions via eight renewals during the last decade.
2.25: MAKSAB and RHOSNEIGR are expected to outrun their odds if the overnight markets are anything to go by, with both horses attracting money against the more likely winner RASTRELLI from my viewpoint. That said, RASTRELLI has been firm enough at around the 7/2 mark, with the recent (good to soft) Brighton winner boasting a decent chance of completing a quick double on the card for trainer Charlie Appleby.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) to date.
3.10: Andrew Balding’s Exceed And Excel filly SUMMER CHORUS rightly heads the market having run well in defeat in her last two races, notwithstanding the fact that she is the only course winner in the field having scored under today’s projected conditions over the Rowley Mile. I oppose one of Andrew’s market leaders in the Placepot finale but will not desert this filly who has proved her consistency time and time again by finishing ‘in the three’ eight times via twelve turf assignments this far. Be on the lookout for money for FIRST DANCE, as James Tate’s runners do not disappoint too often when backed to win their respective events. SAYEM completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket card.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/6—Summer Chorus (good to firm)
3.55: It might take a brave soul to plunge in on the projected market leader ELARQAM, given that trainer Mark Johnston ‘boasts’ a ratio of just 1/26 on the Rowley Mile this season. That said, Mark’s Frankel colt impressed when winning on debut, confirming the promise back at the ranch having been backed down to 10/11 to score on his first day at school. Mark might have (ideally) liked a shower or two to fall on the heath this morning given that ELARQAM was scoring under yielding conditions at York, though rain is only conspicuous by its absence on the radar at the time of writing. ALBISHR and FAJJAJ will ensure that the favourite does not have everything going his way at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Five of the last seven market leaders have finished in frame, statistics which include two (2/1 & 6/5) winners.
4.20: It’s difficult to envisage UAE KING finishing out of the frame, especially when taking Roger Varian’s positive stats at Newmarket this season into account. Two mile races never prize money out of my wallet however, with this race being no exception. FACE THE FACTS is taken as the main danger ahead of WINNING STORY.
Favourite factor: The last five market leaders have all finished in the money, stats which include three winners of late.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:
1/2—Arch Villain (good)
1/1—Winning Streak (good to soft)
4.55: I’m inclined to take on the favourite (Torcello) here with three each way types which could produce an exciting finish from a Placepot perspective this afternoon. If we can successfully omit Andrew Balding’s project market leader out of the mix, it could rubber stamp an impressive return to the one pound unit stake regarding our favourite wager’. I’m pinning my hopes on ROAR, JAAMEH and course winner SAUNTER, though the trio are not (necessarily) listed in order of preference at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Ooty Hill (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Andrew Balding (2/13 +1)
5—Richard Hannon (4/34 – loss of 9 points)
4—Charlie Appleby (7/21 +11)
4—Ed Dunlop (0/6)
4—Sir Michael Stoute (2/13 – slight profit)
3—James Fanshawe (0/5)
3—Amanda Perrett (1/2 +2)
3—Stuart Williams (0/5)
2—Michael Appleby (0/8)
2—Mick Channon (1/5 +2)
2—Clive Cox (0/4)
2—Charlie Fellowes (0/6)
2—John Gosden (7/28 +21)
2—Mark Johnston (1/26 – loss of 22 points)
2—Hughie Morrison (2/4 +2)
2—Hugo Palmer (0/13)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (3/14 +11)
2—Roger Varian (4/10 +4)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
74 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Pontefract: £626.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Perth: £33.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Chelmsford: £159.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced