LINGFIELD – NOVEMBER 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £112.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield:
Leg 1 (12.15): 7 (Scandaleuse) & 4 (Ghanimah)
Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Il Primo Sole) & 12 (Statehood)
Leg 3 (1.20): 4 (Promising Run) & 1 (Muffri’Ha)
Leg 4 (1.50): 10 (Bobbie Wheeler), 14 (Easy Tiger) & 4 (Sacred Act)
Leg 5 (2.25): 9 (Cribbs Causeway), 14 (Val De Marne) & 12 (Melodic Motion)
Leg 6 (2.55): 6 (Miss Pacific), 7 (Unit Of Assessment) & 11 (Luxford)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.15: It appears significant that the Sir Michael Stoute team can make its journey back to Newmarket following the first race on the card, with SCANDALEUSE being the only stable representative at Lingfield on Thursday. Indeed, Michael only has two more runners pencilled in before next Monday whereby the entry here takes on a more positive declaration from my viewpoint. GHANIMAH looks the obvious threat, with a Placepot position surely there for the taking if the William Haggas trained Invincible Spirit filly can offer the normal amount of improvement (whatever that is) following a decent debut effort at Kempton three weeks ago.
Favourite factor: We are back in the realms of ‘fantasy land’ whereby the powers that be have labelled the first two races on the card as ‘new events’ even though they carry the exact credentials required to contest the races in the past! Upwards and onward be informing the first two (1/2 & 5/4) favourites found one too good for them when securing Placepot positions thus far, should you decide to stick with my historic facts and figures. If that should be the case, I’ll round of by parting with the news that last year’s even money market leader failed to reach the frame.
12.45: Charlie Appleby’s Kodiac newcomer STATEHOOD also holds an entry next Tuesday but with only IL PRIMO SOLE standing out from the crowd relating to the opposition here, it is little wonder that the Godolphin raider has been offered this event in which to attend school for the first time. Whether Charlie’s March foal can get on terms with John Gosden’s impressive debut winner is another matter entirely though in receipt of seven pounds from the favourite, there may not be a great deal of daylight between the pair as they cross the line.
Favourite factor: Only three (4/5, 7/4 & 15/8) favourites have won during the last eleven, whilst three 25/1 winners have been record during the last eight contests.
1.20: Four-year-olds come to the gig on a five timer and with PROMISING RUN representing Saeed Bin Suroor (last three runners have won), the trend could be extended. That said, MUFFRI‘HA won this event in facile fashion last year and coming to the party almost on identical terms relating to the official mark and weight, it seems inconceivable that James Doyle’s mount could finish out of the frame. The 3/3 course record of SIMPLY ME demands attention, even as one of the complete outsiders in the field.
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 5/4 market leader (Muffri’Ha) ended a drought which had lasted five years. That said, the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, albeit there were a trio of winners returned at price.
Record of course winners in the third race:
1.50: This is a really interesting contest with the seven course winners in the field boasting an aggregate strike rate of 27% on the Polytack surface at Lingfield. Four-year-olds have secured six contests during the last decade with BOBBIE WHEELER hopefully proving to be the best of the trio of vintage representatives on this occasion. EASY TIGER might prove to be the pick of the relevant course winners, whilst SACRED ACT completes my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals, the top priced winner being returned at just 15/2 during the period. Six of the last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/3—Miracle Of Medinah
3/8—Mr Bossy Boots
2.25: Three-year-olds lead four-year-olds 6-3 via the last ten renewals, with six junior runners having been declared this time around, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CRIBBS CAUSEWAY, VAL DE MARNE and MELODIC MOTION. The middle named French raider will represent Placepot value for money as overseas raiders invariably do whatever their form, rivals and or class of contest.
Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites has finished in the frame. Going back a little further in time however, it’s only fair to report that three of the last eight contests were secured by market leaders.
Record of course winner in the fifth event:
2.55: Three of the last five contests have been won by three-year-olds, whilst all ten winners during the last decade carried a minimum weight of 9-2. Six junior raiders have been entered this time around, with your truly siding with the likes of MISS PACIFIC, UNIT OF ASSESSMENT and LUXFORD at the time of writing. The trio are listed in order of preference, albeit marginally.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten renewals have been won by horses sent off at a top price of 8/1 during which time, three (3/1, 15/8 & 13/8) favourites prevailed. Five of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame during the last decade.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Thursday alongside their ratios on Lingfield’s A/W track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:
3 runners—Ralph Beckett (5/20 – loss of 7 points)
3—Patrick Chamings (1/12 – loss of 7 points)
3—David Evans (1/60 – loss of 50 points)
3—John Gosden (4/16 – loss of 1 points)
3—William Haggas (5/11 +4)
3—Sir Mark Prescott (2/14 +1)
3—Marcus Tregoning (3/6 +3)
2—Michael Attwater (7/44 +20)
2—Michael Bell (3/10 +3)
2—Martin Bosley (0/11)
2—Tony Carroll (5/36 – loss of 9 points)
2—Clive Cox (0/9)
2—Ed Dunlop (2/19 – loss of 9 points)
2—Richard Fahey (3/29 – loss of 14 points)
2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/14)
2—William Knight (2/14 – loss of 9 points)
2—David O’Meara (2/19 – loss of 11 points)
2—Brendan Powell (0/4)
2—Amanda Perrett (4/31 – loss 16 points)
2—John Ryan (1/15 – loss of 2 points)
+54 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
101 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Sedgefield: £138.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Stratford: £72.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Chelmsford: £486.40 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced