GOODWOOD – AUGUST 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £476.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood:
Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Good Omen), 13 (Morning Suit), 12 (Monticello) & 14 (Hold Sway)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Dawn Horizons), 5 (Endless Time) & 6 (Harlequeen)
Leg 3 (3.00): 9 (Nebo), 1 (Cardsharp) & 4 (Etefaaq)
Leg 4 (3.35): 4 (So Mi Dar) & 7 (Sobetsu)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Poetic Steps), 6 (Jedi Master), 3 (Billesdon Brook) & 2 (Tangled)
Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Magical)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: I’m sure it goes without saying that the advice today is to keep stakes low given the ground conditions. At least watch the first race to see how slowly the track is riding before you wade in with your hard earned cash. Upwards and onward to inform that 13 of the last 16 winners have carried weights of nine stones or less, whilst Mark Johnston (responsible for the 25/1 runner up In 2012 before saddling two of the last four winners at 14/1 & 8/1 winners) is looking for his seventh gold medallist in the contest during the last twenty years. Mark has declared two outsiders from the ‘superior’ section of the weights, namely MORNING SUIT and MONTICELLO. The only soft ground winner in the field is GOOD OMEN, whereby Jamie Spencer’s mount has to be included in my Placepot mix, arguably alongside HOLD SWAY.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last fifteen renewals of this opening event on day three of the meeting. 11 of the last 20 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions.
2.25: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals of the 'Lillie Langtry', with vintage representatives at even money to extend the good run before form (and potential non-runners) is taken into consideration. Both of the soft ground winners in the line-up look too big given their 14/1 quotes this morning, namely DAWN HORIZONS and HARLEQUEEN. The latter named Mick Channon filly comes back after a long lay off, whereby DAWN HORIZONS is marginally preferred of the pair, especially with William Haggas having been quite selective regarding his runners over the first few days, even before the rainwater starting to stream down Trundle Hill yesterday afternoon. ENDLESS TIME completes my trio against the remaining nine fillies.
Favourite factor: Five of the fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) via the last thirteen renewals.
Record of the course winners in the ’Lillie Langtry’ contest:
1/1—Endless Time (good)
1/1—Melodic Motion (good)
3.00: ‘Team Hannon’ has secured six of the last nine renewals of this Group 2 Richmond Stakes and with ETEFAAQ representing the stable, there is an outside (22/1) chance that the ratio can be extended, though this looks a competitive event and no mistake, despite the fact that just eight runners have been left in the race at the time of writing. A good to soft winner thus far, Richard’s raider has that edge over some of his rivals at least, the pick of which appear to be NEBO and CARDSHARP.
Favourite factor: Seven winning favourites to report in ‘recent’ seasons (2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2006 & 1999), whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 15 years.
3.35: Three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 18 renewals, whilst John Gosden has secured thee of the last five renewals, with the trainer having offered the green light to his four-year-old raider SO MI DAR this time around. Three of the remaining six runners in the field are junior representatives and the value for money call from my viewpoint is SOBETSU, these two runners having won under poor conditions in the past. It is a gamble leaving WINTER out of the equation but something has to give and avoiding popular favourites (successfully) is the route to a potential mega dividend at any meeting, let alone at Glorious Goodwood.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won eleven of the last twenty renewals of this Nassau Stakes (including eight of the last fourteen) whilst market leaders have secured sixteen toteplacepot positions during the study period. The biggest priced winner during the period has been returned at 11/2 if we conveniently forget the 20/1 gold medallist four years ago.
Record of the course winner in the ‘Nassau Stakes’:
1/1—Blond Me (good)
4.10: The Hannon team have saddled three of the last eight winners of this two-year-old handicap, with BILLESDON BROOK and TANGLED arguably standing out from Richard's four pronged attack on this occasion. Soft ground winners POETIC STEPS and JEDI MASTER are others to throw into the equation.
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last thirteen years. Seven of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions which is a perfectly reasonable record as far as Nursery events are concerned.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:
1/1—Royal Household (good)
4.45: ROULETTE contested a warm maiden at Newmarket and Michael Bell’s filly did well to be beaten less than three lengths on her first day at school. She could be a tough nut for MAGICAL to crack but that said, Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo was no less impressive when only finding one too good for her at the first time of asking. Providing the ground does not resemble a quagmire by the time the Placepot finale is contested, this pair should dominate.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last twenty years. 13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the extended study period.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
There is no relevance to the number of horses trainers have declared at Goodwood today because of ground conditions. Several have already been withdrawn ahead of many more I’ll wager.
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Epsom: £92.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Ffos Las: £40.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Nottingham: £16.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Stratford: £58.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced