LUDLOW - MARCH 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £141.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner--2 placed--4 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £620.48
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £921.18
Average Ludlow Placepot dividend in 2016: £203.67 (3 meetings)
Favourite records at Ludlow in 2016:
19 races - 20 favourites - 8 winners - 4 placed - 8 unplaced (exact science)
Odds on ratio: 4/5
Quick stat: Philip Hobbs is the lone trainer to have saddled three winners at Ludlow in 2016 and from three penultimate stage options, Philip has only offered Brize Vendeenne (4.15) the green light.
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow:
Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Diamond Rock), 9 (Glimpse Of Gold) & 14 (Querry Horse)
Leg 2 (2.30): 4 (Minellacelebration), 5 (Zanstra) & 6 (Valiant Creek)
Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (By The Boardwalk) & 10 (Grimley Girl)
Leg 4 (3.40): 3 (Nexius) & 4 (Top Wood)
Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Brize Vendeenne) & 3 (Pulling Power)
Leg 6 (4.50): 9 (Grandioso) & 2 (Monkey Kingdom)
Suggested stake: 144 lines at 20p unit stake
1.55: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last twelve renewals and with DIAMOND ROCK and GLIMPSE OF GOLD among eight relevant raiders, the trend could be improved further still. Four-year-old QUERRY HORSE might prove to be the joker in the pack however.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 13 favourites have finished in the frame (five winners). Tread carefully however, as the 1/3 market leader missed out on a gold rosette seven years ago when favourites were on a four-timer in the contest.
2.30: Ten of the fourteen winners to date have carried weights of 11-0 or less and both VALIANT CREEK and MIGHTY LEADER make some appeal from those down towards the bottom of the handicap. Six-year-olds have won the last five renewals of this event and vintage raiders are 4/5 to extend the good run before the form book is taken into account. MINELLACELEBRATION and ZANSTRA boast ticks in both boxes.
Favourite factor: Six of the 14 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
Ludlow record of course winners in the second event:
1/1--Minellacelebration (C&D winner)
3.05: Kim Bailey is back among the winners and BY THE BOARDWALK could represent the value for money call in what looks a competitive event on paper. BROWNVILLE is slipping down the weights and could be winning again soon, whilst GRIMLEY GIRL completes my trio against the other seven contenders.
Favourite factor: Both (5/6 & 5/4) favourites had prevailed before last year's 5/2 joint market leaders were beaten, albeit one of them claimed a Placepot position.
Ludlow record of course winners in the third race on the card:
1/2--Truckers Highway (C&D winner)
3.40: Eight-year-olds have won eight of the last 15 renewals (vintage raiders have won five of the last eight contests) whilst securing a 1-2-3 five years ago before landing a successful forecast in 2013. 11 of the last 15 winners (including nine of the last eleven) have carried weights of 10-12 or more and taking the stats and facts into account, NEXIUS, TOP WOOD and ROYAL PALLADIUM are listed in order of preference as my chosen trio.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 14 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners during the last 11 years. 10 of the last 11 winners have scored at a top price of 13/2.
Ludlow record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/1--Kilbree Kid (C&D winner)
1/2--RoyalPalladium (C&D winner)
4.15: For the third year running (via just the three renewals), just one five-year-old has been declared, with BRIZE VENDEENNE attempting to maintain the vintage dominance in this event, the previous winners having scored at 20/1 and 5/1. I made a case for the Philip Hobbs raider via my 'quick stat' earlier in the column and with the brief trend on his side, I must side with three time beaten favourite. Accordingly, Richard Johnson's mount enters my last chance saloon on Thursday. PULLING POWER is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.
Ludlow record of course winners in the fifth event:
4.50: Course and distance winner GRANDIOSO looks the main threat to MONKEY KINGDOM, with BOUND FOR GLORY looking booked for third spot.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) in the toteplacepot finale, statistics which includes four winners. The biggest priced gold medallist had been an 8/1 chance before last year's forecast positions were secured by horses sent off at 28/1 & 50/1! The Tote Exacta dividend paid £730.90 to a one pound stake.
Ludlow record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/1--Grandioso (C&D winner)
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday:
5--Henry Oliver (Ludlow stats this season: 1/5)
4--Rebecca Curtis (0/5)
4--Venetia Williams (1/20)
2--Kim Bailey (2/20)
2--Lady Susan Brooke (0/8)
2--Steve Flook (0/7)
2--Dr Richard Newland (1/3)
2--Paul Nicholls (1/2)
2--David Pipe (3/14)
2--Jeremy Scott (0/6)
2--Matt Sheppard (2/16)
2--Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/17)
2--Tim Vaughan (2/19)
2--Nick Williams (0/4)
+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
72 declared runners