CHELMSFORD – APRIL 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £15.60 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 33.0% units went through – 16/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)
Race 2: 37.9% of the remaining units when through – Evens* & 8/1
Race 3: 57.0% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 7/1
Race 4: 67.2% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 4/5*
Race 5: 80.9% of the remaining units went through – 2/5* & 11/1
Race 6: 84.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1, 7/1 & 6/1 (5/2)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chelmsford:
Leg 1 (5.45): 3 (Dancing Brave Bear) & 9 (Trump Alexander)
Leg 2 (6.15): 3 (Emigrated), 6 (Sharp Operator) & 2 (The Juggler)
Leg 3 (6.45): 1 (Great Order) & 2 (Keir Hardie)
Leg 4 (7.15): 5 (Ourmullion), 1 (Tom’s Rock) & 3 (Envoy)
Leg 5 (7.45): 1 (Blackheath), 4 (Poet’s Prince) & 3 (Battle Lines)
Leg 6 (8.15): 5 (Dark Side Dream) & 1 (Related)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
5.45: Unless Tamaara turns out to be a well above average type from Roger Varian’s yard, the likes of DANCING BRAVE BEAR and TRUMP ALEXANDER could dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest. It’s not often I would opt for an Ed Vaughan raider over one from the Archie Watson camp but DANCING BRAVE BEAR could be anything after just the one start, especially hailing from Street Cry stock.
Favourite factor: The opening race is a new race on the card.
6.15: EMIGRATED looks a tad too big at 11/2 in a place this morning, given that Derek Shaw’s raider comes to the gig on a hat trick. Derek saddled six winners during the month of March, stats which Derek has only equalled once during the last five years. Others to consider include SHARP OPERATOR and THE JUGGLER.
Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Chelmsford programme.
Record of the four course winners in the field:
6.45: GREAT ORDER represents Saeed bin Suroor who has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect. We can expect Saeed to step up his runners this side of Asia now and this should be something of a penalty kick for GREAT ORDER in this grade/company. Similarly, KEIR HARDIE looks the obvious forecast call.
Favourite factor: Disappointingly, this is third consecutive new race on the card.
7.15: The record of OURMULLION below confirms his name in my Placepot permutation as you might have expected, though the inclusion of ENVOY in the mix might surprise you. Ryan Tate’s mount scored at the first time of asking last season, whilst trainer James Eustace has won with two of his last five runners. TOM’S ROCK completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ event.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (winner of the relevant event last year at 15/8) has secured a Placepot position thus far.
Record of the course winner in the four event:
7.45: BATTLE LINES looks booked for third spot but that said, I’m finding it difficult to ignore his chance entirely in this four runner ‘win only’ event. The likely gold medallists however are BLACKHEATH and POET’S PRINCE who are preferred in the order as listed despite the fact that Mark Johnston’s first named raider is a firm favourite at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by snaring gold and silver medals to date.
8.15: SUMMERGHAND is the each way call in the contest, though more obvious winners in the line up include DARK SIDE DREAM and RELATED. If you are chasing losses (never recommended by this columnist), you could do worse than have a small saver on Mont Kiara on Thursday.
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 4/9 market leader followed the complete demise of the first two favourites.
Record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/9—Dark Side Dream
Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.