HUNTINGDON - OCTOBER 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £67.20 (7 favourite - 1 winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon:
Leg 1 (1.30): 1 (Plato’s Code), 9 (Thounder) & 7 (Hernandes)
Leg 2 (2.00): 7 (Mille Nautique) & 3 (Royal Plaze)
Leg 3 (2.35): 4 (Dans Le Vent) & 6 (Hatcher)
Leg 4 (3.05): 4 (Air Squadrun), 8 (Brave Helios) & 2 (Teak)
Leg 5 (3.40): 4 (Pemba), 3 (Miss Spent) & 1 (Matchaway)
Leg 6 (4.10): 2 (Number One London), 5 (Sissinghurst) & 4 (Tiradia)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: Juvenile hurdle events are captivating at this time of year, hoping to witness a star in the making under NH rules. 11 of the last 14 winners of this event have won at odds of 9/2 or less and I could back the run of fancied winners to continue via dual winner PLATO’S CODE and THOUNDER. That said, anything that Ian Williams saddles these days is worth a secondary glance, with HERNANDES representing Ian on this occasion, the trainer having won with five of his last eleven runners.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders have won via 16 renewals, alongside one joint favourite. 13 of the 17 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.
2.00: MILLE NAUTIQUE finished as an unplaced (joint) favourite in this event last year. Alan King’s gelding ended a run of ten straight defeats following his course victory (debut chase event) when scoring at Market Rasen last time out, the tracks are similar and with ground in his favour, Tom Bellamy’s mount should go close in this grade/company. WITNESS IN COURT has (somewhat surprisingly) come in for plenty of overnight support, though I prefer ROYAL PLAZA as the main danger to the tentative selection.
Favourite factor: Only one the three favourites (via two renewals) has claimed a Placepot position to date.
Record of course winners in the second race:
1/2—Deauville Dancer (good)
1/2—Mille Nautique (good)
2.35: There was a time not so long ago when you could back beaten runners in the Championship Bumper at Cheltenham next time out with tremendous confidence as such horses during the period held a win ratio of nearly 70% at the time. The study has disappointed in recent years, though sixth placed DANS LE VENT (earlier this year) has been offered a fine chance to follow up his successful effort at Ludlow when returned as the 2/5 favourite in his next start after the promising Cheltenham effort. HATCHER is preferred as the main danger ahead of New Agenda, especially given Dan Skelton’s continued run of success.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 14 favourites have finished in the frame to date. Six favourites have prevailed thus far, whilst all 13 gold medallists were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.
Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/1—New Agenda (good)
3.05: A winner of 4/14 races on the level on turf, AIR SQUADRUN was scoring for the first time in five attempts under the NH code when wearing cheek-pieces the last day and making his handicap debut here, I’m hoping that Tom George’s seven-year-old can follow up successfully. BRAVE HELIOS has attracted overnight support at around the 10/1 mark which makes for interesting reading, whilst TEAK completes my trio against the remaining six contenders.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/4—Tangolan (good to soft)
3.40: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-13, statistics which eliminate Spoilt Rotten this time around. With McCabe Creek seemingly easy to back at the time of writing, I am left with PEMBA, MISS SPENT and MATCHAWAY to include in my Placepot permutation. Although the trio is listed in order of preference, support is developing for the latter named Kerry Lee representative, ensuring that that I am not content to let the other two ‘carry all my cash’ from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, stats which include one successful (7/4) market leader which won the inaugural contest for David Pipe.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2--Fields Of Glory (soft)
4.10: TIRADIA finished third at 16/1 in this event last year carrying three pounds less than the 11-10 burden today. That said, recent winning form offers plenty of hope for another Placepot position to be gained here at the very least. NUMBER ONE LONDON was a frustrating horse on the level, if only because Brian Meehan’s raider obviously possessed lots of talent, but was rarely able to deliver for one reason or another. If on the best of form here however, Tim Vaughan’s raider could make short work of these rivals at the business end of the contest. SISSINGHURST has been most disappointing of late but it would not take you too long to find half decent form if you delved back through his history.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite failed to complete the course behind horses which filled the frame at 7/1, 16/1 and 16/1 again. The Placepot dividend subsequently disappointed those of us who had been successful on the day.
Record of the course winner in the field:
2/16—Tiradia (good to soft & soft)
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Huntingdon card on Thursday followed by their ratios at the track during the last five years + level stake profit/losses accrued:
5 runners—Jonjo O’Neill (25/94 +14)
5—Dan Skelton (17/97 – loss of 43 points)
3—Fergal O’Brien (5/40 – loss of 6 points)
3—Pat Phelan (1/7 – loss of 3 points)
3—Mark Pitman (1/4 – loss of 2 points)
3—John Ryan (1/7 +14)
3—Tim Vaughan (8/49 – loss of 16 points)
3—Paul Webber (4/48 – loss of 29 points)
2—John Jenkins (5/44 +27)
2—Donald McCain (2/25 – loss of 12 points)
2—Graeme McPherson (2/32 – loss of 19 points)
2—Gary Moore (15/84 +18)
2—Olly Murphy (No previous runners at the track)
2—Michael Mullineaux (0/11)
2—Richard Phillips (1/34 – loss of 28 points)
2—Jamie Snowden (4/44 - loss of 29 points)
2—Ian Williams (8/51 – loss of 9 points)
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
69 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Warwick: £105.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: This is a new fixture on the calendar
Chelmsford: £75.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced