WINCANTON - DECEMBER 7
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: Meeting abandoned
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Drinks Interval), 2 (Allez Jacques) & 4 (Vivant)
Leg 2 (1.00): 4 (Petticoat Tails) & 3 (Midnight Tune)
Leg 3 (1.35): 7 (Pink Gin), 1 (Daklondike) & 4 (Wizards Bridge)
Leg 4 (2.05): 3 (Capeland) & 5 (Global Thrill)
Leg 5 (2.40): 1 (Shanann Star), 12 (Carqalin) & 4 (Leith Hill Legasi)
Leg 6 (3.15): 2 (Chateau Robin) & 6 (Third Act)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
Corresponding results at this meeting during the last six years (five meetings):
32 races – 15 winning favourites – all 32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1
Top trainer at the corresponding fixture:
4 winners—Harry Fry (11/4** - 5/2* - 1/2* - 2/13*) – 1 runner on the card: Vivant (12.30)
Average Placepot dividend during the six year study period (five meetings): £38.26
12.30: Twelve of the thirteen winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, whilst five-year-olds have won six of the ten renewals contested during the last twelve years. The last lone vintage raider (Kap Jazz) scored for yours truly at 5/2, though two relevant raiders are in the field this time around, namely DRINKS INTERVAL and ALLEZ JACQUES. Being a self-confessed stat anorak, I’m obviously fearful of a decent run from VIVANT from the Harry Fry stable, given the details above. Given that this could develop into a ‘win only’ contest, I’m including all three horses in my permutation in the dead of night.
Favourite factor: Three (9/4 - 5/2 - 5/4) favourites have obliged during the last thirteen years, though winners were also returned at 50/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-10/1 during the period.
1.00: Leading trainers with hot favourites have won all four renewals whereby the chance for PETTICOAT TAILS from the Warren Greatrex yard is there for all to see, whereby the even money quote from Bet365 might not last long this morning. With (seemingly) only two horses to beat, the potential odds on chance is the first name on the team sheet ahead of MIDNIGHT TUNE.
Favourite factor: All four favourites (1/4 - 8/13 - 6/4 - 11/10) have duly obliged.
1.35: It’s great to see the name of Silver Buck remembered from yesteryear, though this little lot would not have been rated within a couple of stone or more of Michael Dickinson’s fine steeplechaser. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by informing that the last (7/1) winner was the first name (Aachen) on my team sheet. Hoping to double up at a half decent price this time around, I am inclined towards PINK GIN, especially given the career stat of Fergal O’Brien at Wincanton. Regular readers will know that I hold this trainer in very high regard but the stat that you can find below is alarming to say the least, especially given that his lone raider on the card today (Jennys Surprise) looks likely to go off at around the 5/2 mark. Others to consider accordingly include DAKLONDIKE (David Pipe did me a huge favour yesterday via his 18/1 winner) and WIZARDS BRIDGE.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won, whilst all sixteen contests have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 15/2 or less. 13 of the 16 market leaders have finished in the frame.
2.05: Paul Nicholls has 'only' saddled three winners at this corresponding meeting during the last six years which in terms of his 'local venue' makes for negative reading, especially as the last of the trio scored at 1/4. It’s rare for Paul to actually miss a meeting at his local track but that was going to be the case last year before the meeting was abandoned. Paul has only offered the green light to a couple of inmates this time around, the first of which is CAPELAND who is not the brightest light shining back at the Ditcheat ranch. That said, Bryony Frost’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight, as has GLOBAL THRILL which makes for interesting reading. That could mean that Coeur Blimey is one of the more vulnerable favourites on the card though in Sue Gardner, this is a trainer I rarely (if ever) call the right way. Don’t be too quick to write off the chance of The Gipper, especially with a half decent five pound claimer in the saddle.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed thus far at odds of 5/2 & 1/2.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
1/4—Ivor’s Queen (good)
2.45: The wind is strong enough down here in the west-country, though nothing like the gale it is blowing further north. I write these comments with the view that the wind could dry out the surface a little at Wincanton today, though probably not enough to stop horses winning who like plenty of moisture in the ground. SHANANN STAR is an interesting outsider given the gold/silver medal efforts at the track in February/March with the ground likely to be in his favour. Although the form figures of CARQALIN are nothing to write home about, Kim Bailey is saddling regular winners again (three of his last nine inmates have scored) and with little activity in the market at the time of writing, I’m inclined to offer the five-year-old a Placepot chance in this company/grade, especially as this is the youngest horse in the field who is taking on experienced thoroughbreds who have not set the bar very high thus far. LEITH HILL LAGASI is one such individual, though this three time winner has (at least) finished in the frame (exact science) in 30% of his races under rules to date.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wincanton card.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/6—Shanann Star (soft)
1/6—General Girling (heavy)
3/9—Goring One (good – good to firm – soft)
1/1—How’s Vienna (good to soft)
3.15: Kim Bailey’s second (and last) runner on the card is CHATEAU ROBIN and with some semi-serious money in the positive exchange queue for the six-year-old as I close out my column, I expect Kim to saddle another winner at a track where he enjoys a decent record (see stats below). THIRD ACT could go well at an each way price, with Colin Tizzard’s King’s Theatre gelding marginally preferred to Zayfire Aramis as the main threat to the selection.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders have scored at 3/1 and 7/4 to date.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/4—Ratify (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Wincanton card on Thursday (in brackets) – followed by their stats at the track this season alongside those for the last five years + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
6 runners—Colin Tizzard (1/8 – loss of 5 points) – 27/208 – loss of 55 points
2—Kim Bailey (1/2 +6) – 9/38 +15)
2—Sue Gardner (First runners this season) – 1/25 – loss of 10 points)
2—Ron Hodges (1/1 +4( - 3/18 – loss of 2 points)
2—Anthony Honeyball (0/7) – 6/59 – loss of 29 points)
2—Bernard Llewellyn (1/3 +4) – 1/15 – loss of 8 points)
2—Gary Moore (1/5 – loss of 2 points) – 3/41 – loss of 21 points
2—Paul Nicholls (5/23 +4) – career record: 351/1260 +5
2—Fergal O’Brien (0/1) – negative career record: 0/27
2—David Rees (First runners this season) – 0/1
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (First runners this season) – 5/31 +11)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
52 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Leicester: £37.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Market Rasen: £142.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Chelmsford: £594.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced