NEWBURY – NOVEMBER 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £187.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (12.40): 2 (Claimantakinforgan) & 6 (Lostintranslation)
Leg 2 (1.10): 1 (Whataknight), 10 (Captain Buck’s) & 5 (Onefitzall)
Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Crosspark), 7 (Colin’s Brother) & 4 (Exxaro)
Leg 4 (2.10): 4 (Cap Soleil) & 6 (Oscar Rose)
Leg 5 (2.45): 3 (Topofthegame) & 2 (Strong Pursuit)
Leg 6 (3.20): 4 (Barman), 6 (Volpole Jelois) & 5 (Sea Wall)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
12.40: There is little point in dwelling beyond the fact that this, in essence, is a two runner race, despite its ten declarations. It appears that CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN is fully expected to take care of LOSTINTRANSLATION according to the exchange play overnight. Out of interest both the respective trainers saddled winners at the inaugural meeting last year, Nicky Henderson at 3/1 and Colin Tizzard at 9/1.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings
Record of the course winner in the opening contest:
1/2—Fly Du Charmil (soft)
1.10: On a (seemingly) drying day of weather towards the west of the country, ground conditions will be against Minella On Line who would otherwise have been offered as a half decent each way bet to consider as the rank outsider of the field. Instead, I am looking at the likes of CAPTAIN BUCK’S, ONEFITZALL and WHATANIGHT. The latter named Harry Fry representative could take full advantage of the five pound claimer in the plate (27 winners via a 14% strike rate), whereby the 9/1 offer by BetVictor at the time of writing offers some win and place value from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the card
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/1—Onefitzall (good to soft)
1.40: This was the race in which Colin Tizzard scored with his 9/1 winner twelve months ago and there will be worse outsiders than Colin’s raider EXXARO on the card for sure. With Colin’s Sister winning for us at 10/1 on Saturday, we now have the merits of COLIN’S BROTHER to consider, albeit the two horses hail from different stables. Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team in decent nick whereby COLIN’S BROTHER is short listed, especially as the seven-year-old won his first two races last season, albeit slight slower ground would have been ideal here. CROSSPARK is the horse for money overnight and it’s worth noting that Richard Johnson takes his first ride for Caroline Bailey this season.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite finished out of the frame in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
2.10: Regular readers will know why Fergal O’Brien is one of my favourite trainers just now though to be entirely accurate, Fergal is rarely off my radar when focusing on handlers on a daily basis. On the one hand his unbeaten four-year-old raider CAP SOLEIL would have enjoyed a little more moisture in the ground, though the negative scenario is arguably negated by the fact that his trio of bumper wins last were gained at three of the most competitive venues in the land at Cheltenham, Aintree and Sandown. For those reasons alone, Fergal’s Kapgarde filly in the most interesting horse at Newbury today, whilst stable companion OSCAR ROSE also looks set to figure prominently. Quite why ROSA DAMASCENA is a 28/1 chance in a place this morning I’m not entirely sure, given that Alan King’s Kalanisi filly was only offered as an 8/1 chance when contesting a Listed race at Aintree on her first run for Alan King last season. Yes she was pulled up in a race which did not go anywhere near to plan, but 28/1 still looks a very big price given that we should always allow a horse one bad run (especially a filly) which is particularly relevant here, as ‘Rosa’ won her next race on the level at Chelmsford. I am not suggesting this is an easy task by any means but all the same, a saver to minimum stakes is my way to play the race.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:
1/1—Cap Soleil (good to soft)
2.45: Despite Nicky Henderson’s fine strike rate at his local track, Beat That is not one of my favourite representatives from the Seven Barrows stable, whereby I am diluting this race down to a two horse affair, suggesting that Morello Royal also has plenty to prove at this level. All the money at the time of writing is for TOPOFTHEGAME and no matter what the two trainers say about each other (offering a rosy glow), Paul Nicholls takes plenty of satisfaction from beating his fellow handler on Nicky’s ‘stamping ground’ whereby TOPOFTHEGAME is marginally preferred to STRONG PURSUIT in this ‘win only’ contest.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/2 market leader (literally) failed to win a two horse race!
3.20: Two points of interest regarding Nicky Henderson’s recent Taunton winner BARMAN. Firstly, Nicky’s six-year-old is due for a rise in the weights as of Sunday and secondly, ten pound claimer Alan Doyle easily negates the six pound rise for the relevant success which was gained under fast conditions. With the ground seemingly set to dry out quite quickly today, BARMAN is the first name on the team sheet ahead of VOLPONE JELOIS and SEA WALL.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third new race during the course of my investigation in the pursuit of landing today’s ‘pot’.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Thursday – followed by 5 year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:
7—Nicky Henderson (37/145 – loss of 11 points)
4—Philip Hobbs (21/111 +53)
4—Colin Tizzard (10/67 – loss of 15 points)
3—Warren Greatrex (11/58 – loss of 4 points)
3—Philip Hide (0/1)
3—Emma Lavelle (0/27)
3—Paul Nicholls (24/143 – loss of 18 points)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (7/81 – loss of 38 points)
3—Fergal O’Brien (4/30 – loss of 9 points)
2—Alan King (18/140 – loss of 48 points)
2—Sophie Leech (0/9)
2—Gary Moore (4/41 +9)
2—Oliver Sherwood (5/36 +4)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
65 declared runners