NEWMARKET – APRIL 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £90.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (Blue Geranium), 10 (Sante) & 7 (Jaddayill)
Leg 2 (2.45): 5 (Lexington Sky), 6 (Love Oasis) & 2 (Camargue)
Leg 3 (3.20): 4 (Landfofhopeandglory) & 2 (Brave Hero)
Leg 4 (3.55): 7 (Magical Memory) & 1 (Eastern Impact)
Leg 5 (4.30): 1 (Foundation) & 5 (Tony Curtis)
Leg 6 (5.05): 8 (Mutamakkin), 2 (Flash Fire) & 5 (Flaming Spear)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: BLUE GERANIUM demands top billing given John Gosden's positive results this week which were predicted in this column before the first event was run on the Rowley Mile this year. John's Dansili filly ran really well as a 'second string' on her Newbury debut on soft ground and though the dam never won a race, Super Sleuth was third to Ghanaati (went on to win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot that year) in the 1000 Guineas on this course in 2009. Others to peruse include the Charlie Hills pair SANTE and JADDAYIL, the first named of which is a Dream Ahead filly whose stock enjoy some give underfoot whereby if the forecast showers arrive on cue, Daryll Holland's mount could outrun her odds. JADDAYILL has offered enough evidence via two juvenile assignments to suggest that there is a race waiting for her as a three-year-old.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites during the last decade have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two successful market leaders from a win perspective.
2.45: 'Team Hannon' have secured three of the last six renewals and the trainer has offered the green light to to LEXINGTON SKY this time around. Richard's Iffraj filly should figure prominently, though that comment also applies to the Mark Johnston pair LOVE OASIS and CAMARGUE. Throw the Godolphin newcomer DUBAI ONE into the mix and we have a difficult race to asses, notwithstanding the remaining seven declarations.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst eleven market leaders snared toteplacepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the last fourteen years was an 11/1 chance (2011).
3.20 (Tattersalls Millions): Runner up in his last two (Listed) event which closed out his juvenile season, LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY needs only to have made any normal amount of progress (whatever that is) over the winter to be hard to beat here. That said, BRAVE HERO is a 'dark horse' having breezed up at Lingfield at the first (and only) time of asking, once his tendency to run green in the early part of the relevant race had been ironed out. Always likely to be a better horse the further he went early in his career, LINGUISTIC was described as a "grand type of horse" by trainer John Gosden before he had set foot on a racecourse, a sure sign that there are better things to come from William Buick's mount, the January foal having gained two silver medals thus far.
Favourite factor: All four favourites had finished out with the washing behind winners returned at 25/1, 10/1, 9/1 and 8/1 before the 2013 renewal when the market leader secured the bronze medal. The 2014 (13/8) favourite finished well in arrears the following season before last year's 7/4 secured a Placepot position when securing the bronze medal.
3.55 (Abernant Stakes): Four-year-olds have won eight renewals during the last eighteen years, whilst claiming 19 of the 53 available toteplacepot positions during the study period. Charlie Hills saddled a winner on the Rowley Mile on Wednesday and his MAGICAL MEMORY would have to be short listed if I could be assured that he is cherry ripe (or at least 95% fit) on his first sortie of the season. A winner of three of his last five races, Charlie's Zebedee representative finished third in both of the other relevant events when finishing in front of an aggregate of 25 rivals. Richard Fahey (EASTERN IMPACT) is the only represented trainer to have saddled the winner of this race during the last decade, whilst TUPI and MATTMU are other four-year-old's to peruse over your favourite late night tipple/early morning beverage.
Favourite factor: Three market leaders have prevailed (within the last twelve years), whilst ten of the nineteen favourites have reached the frame during the (longer) study period.
Newmarket (RM) record of course winners in the fourth race:
4.30 (Craven Stakes): 'Team Hannon' have won this race seven times since the turn of the Millennium and if you go back ten years from there to their previous winner, Tirol went on to win the 2000 Guineas in 1990, the only time that Richard had ’doubled up’ when landing both events. If you wondered why Richard (Senior) was such a good judge at placing his horses, you should note that the trainer saddled his first 2000 Guineas winner (Mon Fils) 43 years ago! Experience in this business accounts for 99.9% of the success stories. Unfortunately, we have to lean on the stats heavily to imagine that Richard (junior) can lift the prize again with either TONY CURTIS and/or STEEL OF MADRID. FOUNDATION is the fly in the ointment as far as Richard and his team is concerned, with the course and distance winner FOUNDATION looking to improve John Gosden's impressive run of results at the meeting already. A winner of his first three races as a juvenile, FOUNDATION snared the bronze medal in the Racing Post trophy when made a 10/11 favourite when closing out his two-year-old career. That form puts the Zoffany representative some way ahead of the other five contenders from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 18 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.
Newmarket (RM) record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:
5.05: MUTAMAKKIN is the interesting horse in the Placepot finale, especially as Sir Michael Stoute has his team in fine form which is not always the case during the early weeks/month in the flat season. Michael's four-year-old is anything but exposed and his second win via just the three assignments to date at York really caught the eye. This is only his second race in eighteen months however, whereby sensible staking might be the order of the day, even if you take that Knavesmire victory into account which promised a fine future for the War Front raider. FARLOW ran a good race for a long way in the 'Lincoln' and Richard Fahey's consistent handicapper boasts place claims from my viewpoint, alongside the likes of FLASH FIRE and FLAMING SPEAR.
Favourite factor: The final Placepot event is a new race on the card.
Newmarket (RM) record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with more than one runner on the Newmarket card on Thursday:
5--Saeed Bin Suroor
2--Sir Michael Stoute
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
78 declared runners
Overview for Thursday (Corresponding results from last season):
Horses sent off at 9/1 or less performed well (38 in total)
6 won - 12 placed - 20 unplaced via 23 win and place opportunities
That said, only one favourite obliged on the eight race card
Placepot dividend: £207.30 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
David O'Meara secured a 349/1 treble (9/1-9/1-5/2*) - 8 runners declared on Thursday
Three winning favourites on the seven race card
Placepot dividend: £23.80 (8 favourites - 5 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Dan Skelton landed a 31/1 double (9/1 & 9/4*) - 8 Four day decs - 4 actual runners
Five winning favourites on the seven race card
Placepot dividend: £207.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Three winning favourites on the seven race card