NEWMARKET – APRIL 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £162.80 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 9 (Victory Angel) & 3 (Hilario)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Tabarrak) & 5 (Mix And Mingle)
Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Ornate), 4 (Tasleet) & 6 (Kassia)
Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (War Decree), 6 (Larchmont Lad) & 5 (Rivet)
Leg 5 (4.10): 4 (Manaahil), 2 (Isabel’s On It) & 7 (Spinnaka)
Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Pealer), 6 (Hold Sway) & 11 (Tamleek)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: VICTORY ANGEL posted a fine effort when scoring at Doncaster at the third time of asking when closing out his juvenile season. The fact that Roger Varian has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect only adds confidence to the selection. The terms and conditions of this event are very much in favour of VICTORY ANGEL. HILARIO appears to be the pick of the opposition with Charlie Hills having started the new season well, whilst CASTLEACRE won on debut last season but pulled too hard for her own good in the Radley Stakes at Newbury on her only subsequent assignment.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions during the last decade, statistics which include five winners.
2.25: Last year’s winner ACCESSION boasts a 2/5 ratio at the venue though improvement will be required here, so much so perhaps, even for the eight-year-old to even reach the frame in this ‘short field’ contest. TABARRAK and MIX AND MINGLE are also preferred to Salateen who should still lead this field a merry dance until ‘the bushes’ at least. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ refers to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite secured the silver medal alongside a Placepot position.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/2—Salateen (good to firm)
1/1—Castle Harbour (soft)
2/5—Accession (good to firm & soft)
1/3—Mix And Mingle (good)
3.00: Four-year-olds have won nine renewals during the last nineteen years, whilst claiming 22 of the 56 available toteplacepot positions during the study period. The booking of Ryan Moore for ORNATE catches the eye in no uncertain terms with Robert Cowell’s new inmate looking certain to become competitive at the business end of the contest according to the gospel of yours truly. TASLEET is the other four-year-old to be considered, whilst if Brando wins I lose, it’s as simple as that. I have nothing against Kevin Ryan’s raider but as a six-year-old, I believe the 6/5 quote on offer is far too short, speaking from my self-confessed ‘stats anorak’ stance. KASSIA is up against it here taking on the colts though Mick Channon has never been one to run and hide when all seems lost.
Favourite factor: Four market leaders have prevailed (within the last thirteen years), whilst eleven of the twenty favourites have reached the frame during the (longer) study period.
Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:
1/1—Brando (good to soft)
3.35: 'Team Hannon' have won the Craven Stakes seven times since the turn of the Millennium and if you go back ten years from there to their previous winner, Tirol went on to win the 2000 Guineas in 1990, the only time that Richard had ’doubled up’ when landing both events. If you wondered why Richard (Senior) was such a good judge at placing his horses, you should note that the trainer saddled his first 2000 Guineas winner (Mon Fils) 44 years ago! Experience in this business accounts for 99.9% of the success stories from my viewpoint; hence the stats I adhere to on an everyday basis. Richard (junior) saddles LARCHMONT LAD this time around. EMINENT is the other course winner in the field and Martin Meade’s Frankel representative is also expected to post a decent effort. That said, WAR DECREE potentially rolls off the Aidan O’Brien bandwagon to winning effect. The declaration of the Racing Post Trophy winner RIVET adds plenty of icing to an already tasty looking cake. By the by, overnight interest in Gulliver suggests that the 33/1 trade press quote about Hugo Palmer’s raider might look fanciful come flag fall and there is every indication that James Doyle’s mount could outrun his odds.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 19 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.
Record of the course winners in the Craven Stakes:
1/1—Eminent (good to firm)
1/1—Larchmont Lad (good to firm)
4.10: The dogs are barking harmoniously regarding the chance of MANAAHIL who represents Charlie Hills who won this race last year with a similar looking type. Runner up on debut at Kempton, Jim Crowley’s mount might only need to reproduce that effort to score here, with connections possibly having most to fear from the likes of ISABEL’S ON IT and SPINNAKA.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites during the last eleven years have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders from a win perspective.
4.45: John Gosden has secured three of the last nine renewals with horses sent off at 20/1-7/1-11/8*, the trainer having offered the green light to both dual runner up PEALER and his Halling newcomer GREIG HALL. The first named raider was turned over at odds of 1/6 at Wolverhampton recently following a promising Goodwood debut effort in October. It remains to be seen if the all- weather surface was to blame. HOLD SWAY and TAMLEEK are the other potential winners in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two successful market leaders from a win perspective.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Thursday:
5 runners—John Gosden
2—Saeed Bin Suroor
+ 14 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
64 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Cheltenham: £1,392.10 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 6 unplaced
Ripon: £420.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Taunton: £8.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Lingfield (A/W): £26.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced