WINCANTON - DECEMBER 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £8.60 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 placed)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Soupy Soups), 1 (Midnight Cowboy) & 2 (Aliandi)
Leg 2 (1.15): 4 (Silent Steps) & 5 (Star Rider)
Leg 3 (1.45): 5 (Cyclop), 4 (Saint Raph) & 1 (Silver Copmmander)
Leg 4 (2.15): 5 (Que Sera), 4 (On Demand) & 2 (Awesome Rosie)
Leg 5 (2.45): 3 (Tikkapick) & 2 (Broome Lane)
Leg 6 (3.20): 5 (Highbury High) & 4 (Copper Birch)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
Corresponding results at this meeting during the last five years:
32 races – 15 winning favourites – all 32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1
Top trainers at the corresponding fixture:
4 winners—Harry Fry (11/4** - 5/2* - 1/2* - 2/13*) – 1 runner on the card
4 winners – Philip Hobbs (3/1 – 5/2* - 2/1** - 11/8*) – 3 runners
Average Placepot dividend during the five year study period: £38.26
12.40: Twelve of the thirteen winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, whilst five-year-olds have won six of the ten renewals contested during the last eleven years. Last year’s lone vintage raider (Kap Jazz) scored for yours truly at 5/2, though five relevant raiders are in the field this time around. Two possess ticks in both of the trend boxes with preference going to SOUPY SOUPS, whilst MIDNIGHT COWBOY and ALIANDY complete my trio against the other five contenders.
Favourite factor: Three (9/4 - 5/2 - 5/4) favourites have obliged during the last thirteen years, though winners were also returned at 50/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-10/1 during the period.
1.15: Paul Nicholls has 'only' saddled three winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years which in terms of his 'local venue' makes for negative reading, especially as the last of the trio scored at 1/4. It’s rare for Paul to actually miss a meeting however, though that is the scenario on this occasion which in this race could hand the advantage to the connections of SILENT STEPS and Hughie Morrison’s newcomer STAR RIDER. The latter named raider was winning off a half decent mark of 90 the last day at Newmarket and as a four time winner on the level, Tom O’Brien’s mount could give the Nicky Henderson trained SILENT STEPS most to do.
Favourite factor: All four favourites (1/4 - 8/13 - 6/4 - 11/10) have duly obliged.
1.45: It’s great to see the name of Silver Buck remembered from yesteryear, though this little lot would not have been rated within a couple of stone or more of Michael Dickinson’s fine steeplechaser. Upwards and onward in positive mode however by informing that last year’s 7/1 winner was the first name (Aachen) on my team sheet. Hoping to double up at a half decent price this time around, I am inclined towards CYCLOP who is a few years younger than his rivals, whilst having the able assistance of Sam Twiston-Davies in the plate. SAINT RAPH and SILVER COMMANDER are feared most.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won, whilst all sixteen contests have been claimed by horses starting at odds of 15/2 or less. 13 of the 16 market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:
1/2—Ardkilly Witness (heavy)
2/5—Saint Raph (soft & heavy)
1/2—Danimix (good to soft)
2.15: Philip Hobbs has a good record at this meeting and QUE SERA could be the answer to this tricky little heat, with ON DEMAND and AWESOME ROSIE offering plenty of resistance up the straight I’ll wager. Charlie Longsdon and Tim Vaughan were two of the trainers in the summer who were keeping Richard Johnson in the spotlight but we kick into the depths of winter, Philip Hobbs has once again been the supplier of consistent winners when the going gets tough and sure enough, the champion jockey can boot another one home for his boss in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have prevailed thus far at odds of 5/2 & 1/2.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event:
1/2—Awesome Rosie (soft)
2/5—On Demand (good & good to firm)
2.45: With the other seven trainers ‘boasting’ an aggregate ratio of 1/42 during the last fortnight at the time of writing, Colin Tizzard’s haul of 8/25 looks remarkably strong by comparison whereby his six-year-old representative TIKKAPICK demands to be the first name on the team sheet, whilst I ‘scratch my chin’ in trying to fathom out which horse is going to be given the alternative vote. As it’s too early in the day (even for me) to reach for the ‘sauce’ for guidance, I’ll offer up BROOME LANE as the tentative call.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wincanton card.
3.20: Course and distance winner HIGHBURY HIGH (though not at the same time) is unbeaten at this venue, a factor which just about finalises my thoughts, given that the chances of COPPER BIRCH and BALLYCOE are very much respected. That pair are listed is marginal preference too, mainly because Evan Williams has sent his raider to Wincanton when there must have been options at the recent welsh meetings for the trainer to attempt the hat trick with his talented eight-year-old. Confirming my selections down the card, numbers five and four seem to dominate, much the same as the outside traps at Walthamstow used to attract the majority of my attention as I recall!
Favourite factor: The two market leaders have scored at 3/1 and 7/4 to date.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/2—Highbury High (good & good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Thursday – followed by their stats at the track this season alongside profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Neil Mulholland (2/15 – Profit of 26 points)
4—Colin Tizzard (4/14 – Profit of 7 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (0/1)
3—Anthony Honeyball (No runners)
3—Alan King (2/4 – slight loss)
2—Kim Bailey (1/4 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Nick Lampard (0/1)
2—Jackie Du Plessis (0/1)
2—Jeremy Scott (0/6)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
52 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Leicester: £742.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Market Rasen: £81.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Chelmsford: £19.80 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced