DONCASTER – DECEMBER 29
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (12.25): 3 (Clic Work), 1 (Valseur Du Granval) & 2 (Nicolas Chauvin)
Leg 2 (12.55): 10 (Work), 5 (Hestina) & 2 (Giveaway Glance)
Leg 3 (1.30): 21 (Nightfly), 19 (Just Milly) & 10 (Rio Bravo)
Leg 4 (2.05): 3 (Briery Belle) & 8 (The Organist)
Leg 5 (2.40): 6 (Ten Sixty) & 3 (Abricot De L’Oasis)
Leg 6 (3.10): 9 (Willoughby Hedge), 5 (Looking Well) & 11 (Big Casino)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
12.25: Paul Nicholls (Clic Work), Tom George (Valseur Du Granval) and Ian Williams (Midtech Valentine) were each responsible for two of just nine penultimate entry stage declarations last week and now we are down to just four declarations. With the other entry (NICOLAS CHAUVIN) being trained by Nicky Henderson, the lack of numbers is negated by an interesting quartet to assess. That said, the handicapper looks to have caught up with Midtech Valentine, whereby I will opt for CLIC WORK, VALSEUR DU GRANVAL and NICLOAS CHAUVIN, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails in this ‘win only’ event.
Favourite factor: Both (2/1 & 7/2) favourites have finished down the field thus far.
12.55: WORK, HESTINA and GIVEAWAY GLANCE are the trio which interest yours truly at the overnight stage, hoping that we are spared the ‘inspection process’ which plagued Wednesday morning. I would not have a bet from a win perspective with your money, let alone mine.
Favourite factor: All three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include two (1/3 & 1/5) winners.
1.30: Five-year-olds have won all three contests thus far at 11/10, 11/8 & 7/2 and the likes of NIGHTFLY, JUST MILLY and RIO BRAVO are short listed in a race high on numbers, though desperately low on quality.
Favourite factor: The three favourites have secured two gold medals to date alongside one of the silver variety.
2.05: Henry Daly had won with three of his last five runners at the time of writing and with his mare BIRERY BELLE having won four of her last five races under half decent conditions, Tom O’Brien’s mount is the first name on the team sheet. THE ORGANIST is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite was one of the two horses which failed to complete the course in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home ‘qualify’ from each way/Placepot perspectives.
2.40: Six-year-olds have secured all three contests (11/4*, 8/1 & 22/1) whilst securing a 260/1 Tricast in the race last year via 45% of the total number of runners. The pick of this year’s entries should prove to be TEN SIXTY and ABRICOT DE L’OASIS, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to Oh Land Abloom.
Favourite factor: The three favourites have secured two placepot positions via gold and silver medallists to date.
3.10: Three time winner and course and distance scorer WILLOUGHBY HEDGE is worth a small punt in the Placepot finale from my viewpoint. Others of interest include LOOKING WELL and BIG CASINO who was becoming a really consistent type before going base over apex last time out.
Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite via three renewals, with two of the four market leaders having secured Placepot positions to date.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Nicky Henderson (31/84 – Profit of 42 points)
4—David Pipe (3/29 – loss of 13 points)
3—Alan King (20/97 – Profit of 3 points)
3—Dan Skelton (11/43 – loss of 41 points)
2—Jenny Candlish (2/30 – loss of 22 points)
2—Ben Case (2/18 – Slight profit)
2—Henry Daly (3/25 – Profit of 3 points)
2—David Peter Dunne (No runners)
2—Harry Fry (9/25 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Warren Greatrex (6/28 – loss of 4 points)
2—Anthony Honeyball (1/20 – loss of 18 points)
2—Neil King (5/50 – loss of 32 points)
2—Tom Lacey (2/10 – loss of 1 point)
2—Charlie Longsdon (6/59 – loss of 9 points)
2—Donald McCain (4/64 – loss of 40 points)
2—Graeme McPherson (6/40 – Profit of 6 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (16/62 – loss of 15 points)
2—Oliver Sherwood (1/24 – loss of 10 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/34 – loss of 21 points)
2—Paul Webber (1/33 – loss of 30 points)
2—Ian Williams (5/47 – loss of 14 points)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
72 declared runners