TAUNTON - DECEMBER 8
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £1,364.70 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Thursday:
Leg 1 (12.30): 2 (That’s Gonna Sting), 4 (Port Navas) & 1 (Bilidn)
Leg 2 (1.05): 1 (Bistouri D’Honore) & 5 (Laugharne)
Leg 3 (1.35): 1 (Cottesloe), 6 (Billy My Boy) & 3 (Sadma)
Leg 4 (2.10): 2 (Tea Time Fred), 1 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 3 (Hannibal The Great)
Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Newsworthy) & 2 (Clic Work)
Leg 6 (3.15: 2 (Notarfbad), 1 (Tinker Time) & 3 (Astra De La Cour)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.30: All 16 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (including the winners at 16/1-8/1-7/1-9/2**-6/4*) have carried a minimum burden of 11-2, whereby the top weight BILIDN (this year’s only qualifier) is not easily passed over, despite a less than obvious chance via the form book. More obvious winners include THAT’S GONNA STING and PORT NAVAS. Chris Down’s course and distance winner CULM COUSELLOR is another for the overnight short list.
Favourite factor: Two of the five renewals have been secured by market leaders. Four of the six favourites to date have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/3—Culm Counsellor (good)
1/10—Withy Mills (heavy)
1.00: Paul Nicholls has secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety via six contests to date. Paul saddles BISTOURI D’HONORE this time around. Paul’s Exeter winner looks to have been given an ideal opportunity to follow up successfully, whilst the official figures suggest that LAUGHARNE will complete the forecast option.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites (two beaten at odds on at 8/15 & 5/6) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (two winners at 8/15 & 2/5).
1.35: Not too many days pass without Neil Mulholland posting a winner or two and that ‘trend’ can be extended here by COTTESLOE who arguably has SADMA and BILLY MY BOY to beat. That latter named Chris Down raider is set to be ridden by Tom Scudamore who is riding with plenty of confidence these days. The older Tom gets, the more the ‘Scudamore stamp’ is in evidence, following in the illustrious footsteps if his father and grandfather. What caps it all, is that he seems like a ready decent chap too when interviewed.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot position by finishing second in their respective events.
2.10: The first of two three runner races which will ensure a half decent dividend because of the ‘win only’ ruling for Placepot wagers. Before odds are taken into account, we basically have an £9.00 four leg Placepot bet to consider if like yours truly, punters run scared of such events and put all three entries into their Placepot mix. My marginal order of preference is TEA TIME FRED, BELLS OF AILSWORTH and HANNIBAL THE GREAT, but not enough to be swayed away from my 3x3 Placepot permutation in the two relevant events.
Favourite factor: Both of last year’s inaugural 3/1 joint favourites failed to complete the course.
2.40: Six-year-olds have won four of the five renewals thus far, including the 3/1 gold medallist two years ago who was highlighted in this column as the only vintage representative. The same scenario was in place the previous year when the 11/4 winner was the only vintage representative, whilst the 2012 renewal produced four 'qualifiers', two of which filled the forecast positions at 14/1 & 6/1, producing an Exacta forecast of 140/1. Just one trainer is live to the figures on this occasion (wake up at the back there) with Neil Mulholland having declared NEWSWORTHY. A useful five pound claimer aboard CLIC WORK negates most of the rise incurred for a half decent success here at Taunton a fortnight ago.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include three (9/2, 11/4 & 3/1**) winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
2/3—Hint Of Mint (2 x good)
1/2—Clic Work (good)
2/7—Winning Spark (soft & heavy)
3.15: Just the three runners line up in the Placepot finale and with so little to choose between the trio, it’s a case of including all three entries in the Placepot permutation and hoping that the horse with the least units prevails. For the record, the marginal list of preference reads as NOTARFBAD, TINKER TIME and ASTRA DE LA COUR.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader duly obliged.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Taunton card on Thursday – followed by their five year stats at the track + Profits/losses accrued:
3—Charlie Longsdon (1/14 – loss of 9 points)
3—Paul Nicholls (46/147 – Profit of 7 points)
3—Jeremy Scott (8/53 – loss of 4 points)
2—Chris Down (7/77 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Johnny Farrelly (6/42 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Harry Fry (13/56 – loss of 12 points)
2—Sue Gardner (4/48 – loss of 18 points)
2—Martin Keighley (1/21 – loss of 13 points)
2—Nick Lampard (0/1)
2—Neil Mulholland (5/67 – loss of 34 points)
2—Henry Oliver (1/10 – loss of 6 points)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
46 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newcastle (NH): £451.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Warwick: £31.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Chelmsford: £1,263.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced