WINCANTON – FEBRUARY 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £153.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (1.25): 1 (Midnight Maestro), 9 (Sir Antony Browne) & 2 (Azzuri)
Leg 2 (2.00): 3 (Theatre Flame), 5 (Zanstra) & 2 (Astre De La Cour)
Leg 3 (2.35): 6 (Naranja), 3 (Hitherjaques Lady) & 7 (Theatre Rouge)
Leg 4 (3.10): 8 (Copain De Classe) & 2 (River Frost)
Leg 5 (3.45): 10 (Faming Charmer) & 11 (Rothman)
Leg 6 (4.15): 4 (Ask The Weatherman) & 1 (Rebel Rebellion)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.25: It’s as well to err on the side of caution with standing water on the track at the time of writing. That makes sense, particularly with Alan King double handed in the opening race with two likely types in MIDNIGHT MAESTRO and SIR ANTONY BROWNE. Even then, we have to include AZZURI in the mix in an interesting opening event. It’s just a shame that this trio could not be racing on better ground.
Favourite factor: The two (odds on) favourites had prevailed at odds of 1/4 & 8/11 before last year’s 2/7 market leader could only plod home in fourth placed behind horses which filled the frame at 6/1, 14/1 & 10/1.
2.00: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last seven contests, though vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago. Vintage representatives are 4/6 to extend the trend before the form book is consulted, with THEATRE FLAME, ZANSTRA and ASTRE DE LA COUR listed in order of preference. All three horses are included in the Placepot mix with the live threat of potential withdrawals.
Favourite factor: Four of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (5/4, Evens & 10/11) winners.
2.35: Six-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, yet trainers appear to have missed the ‘edge’ in the contest. Upwards and onwards in positive mode however by suggesting that NARANJA should go well, though backing any horse on the card at cramped odds might prove to be ill advised. That said, Jamie Snowden’s five-year-old raider was ‘only’ beaten by three lengths under bad conditions at Lingfield last time out whereby the ground might inconvenience others more than Nick Schofield’s mount. HITHERJACQUES LADY and THEATRE ROUGE are feared most.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won six of the last ten contests, whilst favourites came to the gig on a five timer twelve months ago, only for the 11/10 market leader to find the 6/4 second favourite too strong close home.
3.10: Paul Nicholls (COPAIN DE CLASSE) bailed punters out of trouble relating to this event twelve months ago (see details below) and there is every chance that Paul will provde the winner twelve months on. RIVER FROST is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 10/3 market leader (frustratingly) finished fourth, missing out on a toteplacepot position in the process as did last the next 15/8 favourite. That said, last year’s 13/8 (Paul Nicholls trained) market leader duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/4—Zulu Oscar (good to soft)
3.45: Three of the four winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-8 and with the projected heavy conditions in place, it would come as no surprise if the two relevant horses in the field go mighty close to extend the positive trend, namely FLAMING CHARMER and ROTHMAN, the pair being listed in order of preference, particularly with FLAMING CHARMER having scored under similar conditions.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites (via four renewals) have finished ‘in the three’ (exact science) to date. The statistics include two winning favourites which were both returned at 9/4.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on card:
2/3—Benny’s Mist (2 x heavy)
1/2—Pilgrim’s Bay (soft)
1/3—Gomes Island (heavy)
1/2—Flaming Charmer (heavy)
4.15: I have made the point several times before that Hunter Chase events have the best record in terms of winning favourite under either code of the sport and those with definite chances here are ASK THE WEATHERMAN and REBEL REBELLION.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame, though we had to wait until last year for the first (8/13) market leader to oblige from a win perspective.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Loch Ba (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wincanton card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Philip Hobbs (1/14 – loss of 5 points)
4—Alan King (3/8 (Profit of 1 point)
4—Colin Tizzard (4/32 – Loss of 10 points)
4—Robert Walford (1/13 – loss of 7 points)
3—Gary Moore (0/1)
3—Paul Nicholls (18/34 – Profit of 9 points)
3—Oliver Sherwood (1/3 – slight loss)
3—Dan Skelton (0/3)
2—Harry Fry (1/13 – loss of 11 points)
2—Neil Mulholland (4/24 – Profit of 25 points)
2—Evan Williams (1/6 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Venetia Williams (1/5 – Profit of 1 point)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Towcester: £134.90 – 6 favourite – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Chelmsford: £20.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Southwell: £146.80 0 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced