HUNTINGDON – FEBRUARY 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £118.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon:
Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Justjoelliott), 3 (Kid Kalanisi) & 4 (Giveitachance)
Leg 2 (1.45): 6 (Zerachiel), 5 (Bronco Billy) & 3 (Royal Milan)
Leg 3 (2.20): 1 (Messire Des Obeaux) & 2 (Bags Groove)
Leg 4 (2.50): 4 (Protek Des Flos), 3 (Gibralfaro) & 1 (Who Dares Wins)
Leg 5 (3.20): 1 (Johns Luck), 13 (Easter In Paris) & 6 (Meldrum Lad)
Leg 6 (3.55): 8 (Passing Call) & 1 (Petticoat Tails)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5 and the trio that catch the eye are JUSTJOELLIOTT, hat trick seeker KALANISI KID and course and distance winner GIVEITACHANCE, the three horses being listed in order of preference. Richard Johnson takes only his second ride for Seamus Surack during the last five years aboard JUSTJOELLIOTT which makes the top weight the marginal preference from a ‘win perspective’.
Favourite factor: Five of the last twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders, two of which were returned as joint favourites.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
2/7—Giveitachance (2 x good to soft)
2/5—Alberto’s Dream (2 x soft)
1.45: Seven-year-olds come to the gig on a six timer and this year's vintage representatives are ZERACHIEL and two optional each way types in BRONCO BILLY and ROYAL MILAN. BRONCO BILLY has his second run at the track having already scored here, though ZERACHIEL might take the beating given the NH ratio of trainer Ian Williams during the course of January, notwithstanding his 30% strike rate under the other code this month.
Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last eleven years. Three favourites won at 7/2-5/2-9/4 via eight renewals during the period.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/2—Ganbei (good to soft)
1/1—Bronco Billy (good to soft)
2/4—The Jugopolist (2 x good to soft)
2.20: Five and six-year-olds have shared nine of the last ten contests (six-year-olds lead 5-4), though I have only left the stat in for those of you that keep records, as all six contenders represent the two vintages this time around. Alan King is one of only three trainers to have saddled a trio of winners this week (Monday to Wednesday inclusive) and MESSIRE DES OBEAUX should add to the tally on behalf of the stable in the feature event on the card. That said, it’s impossible to predict the amount of further improvement that BAGS GROOVE possesses, making Harry Fry’s raider the main dander from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Although favourites have won four renewals during the last eleven years, only two of the last nine market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the third event:
1/1—Bags Goove (good to soft)
1/1—Finula (good to soft)
2.50: Seven of the last eight winners in total carried a minimum burden of 10-12 which eliminates six of the ten strong field if you take the stats seriously. I could have given Work In Progress an each way chance but for the relevant 16 ounces below the weight barrier. In the circumstances I will rely on PROTEK DES FLOS and the Alan King pair GIBRALFARO and WHO DARES WINS.
Favourite factor: Three (11/10, 15/8 & 2/1) favourites have won during the study period, though five of the last seven market leaders have failed to secure toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
2/3—Allee Bleue (2 x soft)
3.20: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last six contests (and four of the last nine), yet trainers missed the 'edge' last year as no vintage representatives were declared. Six trainers have ‘seen the light’ this time around, whereby the chances of JOHNS LUCK, EASTER IN PARIS and MELDRUM LAD (to a fashion) are respected.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten market leaders finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race on the card:
1/3—Song Saa (soft)
1/6—Trojan Star (good to soft)
3.55: Alan King (PASSING CALL) has secured five of the last seven renewals in which his stable was represented, though PETTICOAT TAILS looks set to go close, albeit the Warren Greatrex raider has to give 19 pounds to Alan’s four-year-old on this occasion. Such a concession should ensure that there is too much daylight between the pair at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Six of the last ten favourites have finished in the frame in the Placepot finale.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Huntingdon card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Alan King (4/14 – Profit of 2 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (0/4)
3—Dan Skelton (1/19 – loss of 7 points)
2—Kim Bailey (1/19 – loss of 5 points)
2—Seamus Durack (No runners)
2—Claire Dyson (0/5)
2—Mick Easterby (0/4)
2—Warren Greatrex (0/3)
2—Neil Mulholland (2/9 – level profit/loss)
2—Richard Philips (1/5 – Slight Profit)
2—Lucy Wadham (1/5 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Evan Williams (0/6)
2—Ian Williams (0/10)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £47.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Chelmsford: £103.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield: £498.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced