WARWICK – JANUARY 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £27.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners--2 placed--2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Warwick:
Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Dino Velvet) & 2 (Don Bersy)
Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Al Reesha), 4 (Ms Parfois) & 2 (Wizard’s Sliabh)
Leg 3 (2.00): 5 (Yanmare) & 1 (Icentivise)
Leg 4 (2.35): 2 (Ballywilliam), 1 (Moidore) & 6 (Mont Choisy)
Leg 5 (3.10): 8 (Dolatulo) & 3 (Open Hearted)
Leg 6 (3.45): 2 (King Of Realms), 6 (Forgetthesmalltalk) & 1 (Asylo)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
12.55: It’s difficult to get away from the penalised pair at the top of the list, particularly DINO VELVET who can land yet another juvenile event for trainer Alan King who has been mopping up these type of races for the last few months. That said, DON BERSY will not go down without a fight I’ll wager, fully expecting this pair to dominate at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/4 market leader was pulled up, the race going to the 6/4 second favourite. The following 13/8 favourite also missed out on a Placepot position, before last year’s 3/10 market leader duly obliged.
1.25: Let’s hope that the meeting gets the green light in the morning and if so, AL REESHA looks difficult to oppose, even though Richard Johnson’s mount MS PARFOIS will be popular in betting shops up and down the length of the land. Fergal O’Brien’s horses are invariably worth noting on the build up to a Cheltenham meeting (Saturday), whereby WIZARD’S SLIABH is added to the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite duly obliged before the following 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing.
2.00: Three pound claimer has ridden YANMARE four times and on three of those occasions, the pair landed victories whereby the Twiston-Davies raider is expected to revert to winning ways following a defeat in a much tougher Newbury event the last day. ICENTIVISE looks the most obvious danger with little else appealing in all honesty.
Favourite factor: Nine of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
Course records of the course winners in third race:
2/9—Incentivise (2 x soft)
2.35: A difficult race to assess and no mistake, not helped by the fact that there is little history/no edge to lean on. Horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-5 have secured four of the six available Placepot positions, statistics which include both (8/1 & 9/2) winners thus far. Seven of the 12 declarations ‘qualify’, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be BALLYWILLIAM, MOIDORE and MONT CHOISY, who looks a little overpriced at 16/1 via the trade press.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/2 market leader snared the bronze medal alongside a toteplacepot position before last year’s 9/2 favourite secured the silver gong, the front pair finishing miles clear of their rivals.
Course records of the course winners in fourth contest on the card:
3.10: DOLATULO looks difficult to kick out of the frame in this Hunter Chase event, though I would struggle to part with cash from a win perspective. Given the record of favourites in this contest (see stats below), there is no point beating about the bush whereby OPEN HEARTED is immediately nominated as the main threat.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have obliged in this Hunter Chase event at odds of 1/2-11/10-5/4-9/4.
Course records of the course winners in fifth on the card:
2/3—Pentiffic (good & soft)
3.45: Ascot winner KING OF REALMS demands centre stage here but with so many leading stables involved, it might prove unwise to dive in with both feet, whereby I am adding FORGETTHESMALLTALK and ASYLO to the Placepot equation, knowing that the dividend will pay well if KING OF DREAMS fails to reach the frame.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Warwick card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Warwick card on Thursday – followed by their ratio at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Alan King (5/19 – loss of 4 points)
4—Dan Skelton (4/23 – Profit of 1 point)
3—Peter Bowen (0/10)
3—Jonjo O’Neill (1/24 – loss of 16 points)
3—David Pipe (1/12 – loss of 3 points)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/15 – loss of 3 points)
2—Tony Carroll (0/2)
2—Philip Hobbs (0/10)
2—Emma Lavelle (0/7)
2—Ben Pauling (4/6 – Profit of 11 points)
2—Tom Symonds (0/4)
2—Evan Williams (0/6)
+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
75 declared runners