NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) - JULY 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £147.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Atty Persse), 2 (Crowned Eagle) & 4 (Face The Facts)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Rajasinghe), 4 (Denaar) & 11 (Sound And Silence)
Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Perfect Angel), 11 (Tommy Taylor), 12 (Ekhtiyaar) & 9 (Hyde Park)
Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Wings Of Desire) & 2 (Frontiersman)
Leg 5 (4.05): 11 (Spring Cosmos), 13 (Wild Impala) & 8 (Pulitzer)
Leg 6 (4.35): 13 (Compas Scoobie) & 12 (Ice Age)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: John Gosden has saddled four of the last five winners when represented, with John having declared CROWNED EAGLE and FACE THE FACTS on this occasion. Thirteen renewals had slipped past since John scored with his 1997 winner Three Cheers before the recent gold medallists got John’s name back on the board in no uncertain terms. CROWNED EAGLE ran in the Epsom Derby the last day and will be more at home in this Group 3 event I’ll wager, whilst FACE THE FACTS was ‘only’ beaten five lengths in the Queen’s Vase at the royal meeting. That said, Roger Charlton’s Royal Ascot winner ATTY PERSSE was one of the easiest winners of the week at Ascot and John’s pair might have to bow to this progressive Frankel colt on Thursday. Out of interest, the only horse to have lowered ‘Attys’ colours thus far is Laraaib who looks like contesting a handicap here at Newmarket on Saturday.
Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 20 years. 14 of the 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. 14 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less during the last 15 years.
2.25: ’Team Hannon’ were saddling their eighth winner of this event last year, after Rock City got the ball rolling under Willie Carson back in 1989. It’s interesting to note that Frankie Dettori has his first ride back from injury aboard Richard’s only runner in the contest, namely DENAAR. Beaten twelve lengths in the Coventry Stakes last time out, DENAAR makes some each way appeal around the 12/1 mark at the time of writing, especially taking the Hannon record into account. Others for the overnight mix include the ‘Coventry’ winner RAJASINGHE, alongside the Windsor Castle hero SOUND AND SILENCE. CARDSHARP rearwarded each way players in the Norfolk Stakes having been backed off the boards late doors at the Berkshire venue, with Mark Johnston’s Lonhro raider receiving the overnight reserve nomination on this occasion.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot dividends during the last 18 years, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winner in the July Stakes:
1/1—Invincible Amy (good to firm)
3.00: Ten renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won this event, the gold medallists during those years being returned at 40/1-25/1-12/1-12/1--11/1-8/1-7/1-7/1-7/1-13/2, an average price of 10/1 during the last decade. Twelve winners during the last fourteen years have carried a maximum weight of 9-5 whereby the top two horses are eliminated from my enquiries, leaving PERFECT ANGEL, TOMMY TAYLOR, EKHTIYAAR and HYDE PARK to carry my Placepot cash.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the study period, whilst 10 of the 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 20 years.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/1—Goodwood Crusader (good to firm)
1/1—Cartographer (good to soft)
1/1—Poet’s Society (good to soft)
3.35: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 10 renewals of this twelve furlong Group 2 event with six of the seven entries made up from the relevant vintage this time around. The ‘King George’ form line from last year (what price would Highland Reel be in this event?) sets the standard from my viewpoint whereby WINGS OF DESIRE is given a chance with John Gosden’s Pivotal raider showing that there is plenty of ability still lurking under the saddle, judged on his seasonal debut effort at the royal meeting a few weeks ago. FRONTIERSMAN is closely linked with the marginal selection via Highland Reel and the pair could dominate the finish. Poet’s Word is third best from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Just two favourites have scored in the last 19 years, whilst nine market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the period.
4.05: Charlie Appleby was responsible for a beaten odds on favourite in one of the two divisions of this event twelve months ago and the trainer will want to put that record straight via his Acclamation filly SPRING COSMOS who is the first name on the team sheet. WILD IMPALA and PULITZER are other newcomers to consider, especially as the experienced runners have failed to pull up any trees thus far.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last fifteen years, whilst fifteen of those winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.
4.35: Four-year-olds have the best recent record claiming the same stats as the favourites (below) during the last ten years, whilst runners carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have claimed nine contests during the study period. COMPAS SCOOBIE appears to have a lot going for him here with Ryan Moore in the plate, despite the fact that he is 32 ounces ‘light’ according to the weight trend. I can only offer myself one more selection given the Placeot mix, the pin falling on ICE AGE.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won four renewals during the last decade during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 12/1.
Record of the course winners in the Plcepot finale:
1/1—Monsieur Joe (good)
1/4--Mont Kiara (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Thursday – followed by their ratio at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
8 runners—John Gosden (3/11 – Profit of 8 points)
8—Richard Hannon (1/16 – loss of 7 points)
6—Charlie Appleby (3/9 – Profit of 1 point)
5—Richard Fahey (1/8 – loss of 4 points)
4—Mark Johnston (5/13 – Profit of 7 points)
4—Roger Varian (0/6)
3—Hugo Palmer (1/5 – loss of 2 points)
3—Kevin Ryan (0/1)
2—Andrew Balding (0/2)
2—David Elsworth (0/5)
2—Charlie Hills (1/15 – loss of 9 points)
2—Brian Meehan (0/2)
2—Aidan O’Brien (No previous runners)
2—John Ryan (1/9 – loss of 2 points)
2—Henry Spiller (0/2)
2—James Tate (1/3 – loss of 1 point)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
85 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £16.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Doncaster: £7.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 placed
Epsom: £15.90 – 7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 placed
Newbury: £37.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced