GOODWOOD - JULY 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £16.10 (6 favourite - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood:
Leg 1 (2.00): 9 (Carrington), 10 (High Shields) & 8 (Champagne City)
Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Blue Point), 1 (Mehmas) & 4 (Intelligence Cross)
Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Curbyourenthusiasm), 15 (Sword Fighter) & 2 (Big Orange)
Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Pamona) & 1 (Californian)
Leg 5 (4.20): 9 (Rhododendron), 7 (Manama) & 11 (Angel Sun)
Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Geneva Convention), 16 (Ivor's Magic) & 12 (Devilish Guest)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: 12 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 9-0 or less, whilst Mark Johnston (responsible for the 25/1 runner up in 2012 before saddling two of the last three winners at 14/1 & 8/1 winners) is looking for his seventh gold medallist in the contest during the last 19 years. Mark has declared three runners on this occasion, with CHAMPAGNE CITY given the nod via the weight trends, albeit the 'selection' is only offered from a Placepot perspective. CARRINGTON and HIGH SHIELDS sit directly beneath Richard Kingscote's mount in the handicap with definite claims, whilst BANKSEA makes up the overnight short list from a little higher in the weights.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last fourteen renewals of this opening event on day three of the meeting. 10 of the last 19 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the opening race:
1/1--High Shields (good to firm)
2.35: Richard Hannon has secured five of the last eight renewals of this Group 2 Richmond Stakes and with MEHMAS representing the stable, there is a chance that the ratio can be extended, though this looks a competitive event and no mistake, despite the fact that just five runners go to post. Richard indicated before the season that his Acclamation colt possessed an engine that could take him a long way as a juvenile and it's worth noting that he only found an Aidan O'Brien colt too good for him at Royal Ascot in the 'Coventry' six weeks ago, before claiming the July Stakes at Newmarket. INTELLIGENCE CROSS finished second at 'headquarters', whilst Charlie Appleby's eleven length Doncaster winner BLUE POINT completes my short list against the remaining two contenders in what appears to be a decent renewal of the Richmond Stakes.
Favourite factor: Seven winning favourites to report in ‘recent’ seasons (2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2006 & 1999), whilst 11 of the last 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 15 years.
3.10: I can't help but think that this course will prove too quick for SHEIKHZAYEDROAD who would otherwise hold every chance on the strength of his bronze medal position in Royal Ascot's Gold Cup event last month. Only sixth in this event last year, David Simock's raider might not be able to get to horses such as stable companion CURBYOURENTHUSIASM, SWORD FIGHTER and last year's winner BIG ORANGE down the home straight. Regular readers will know that staying races do not figure highly from my viewpoint, holding the firm belief that such events are staged for horses which lack pace, which is not what horse racing was designed for, certainly not in the 'flat sector'.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the last twelve renewals of the Goodwood Cup, whilst 11 of the last 20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the last thirteen years was returned at 8/1.
Record of course winners in the Goodwood Cup:
1/2--Big Orange (good)
1/1--Kinema (good to soft)
1/2--Quest For More (good)
1/1--The Twisler (soft)
3.45: Four-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals of the 'Lily Langtree', with vintage representatives at 2/5 to extend the good run before form is taken into consideration. A case could be made for all five relevant entries, but having opted for three runners in each race in my permutation earlier on the card (I have to start streamlining somewhere), I'm pinning my hopes on PAMONA and CALIFORNIAN, the two 'last time out' winners via the relevant quintet. The two four-year-olds are listed in marginal order of preference at the overnight stage.
Favourite factor: Five of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions (two winners) via the last twelve renewals.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:
2/6--Tioga Pass (good & good to soft)
4.20: I have a little punt on the go here via ANGEL SUN from Henry Candy's yard which has a remarkable record here at Goodwood, given the competitive nature of their two-year-old races. Henry boasts a ratio of 4/11 and though ANGEL SUN finished last on debut, Henry's Sir Prancelot's raider was not beaten far when any hope of a victory had passed. Oisin Murphy's mount (the jockey boasts a 25% strike rate when riding for the yard) was one of five highlighted juveniles picked out by the trainer during a stable visit in the spring and at 40/1 (which I have already taken), I have no problem in advising you to have small (each way) saver if nothing else. Taking for granted that ANGEL SUN will finish fourth (lol), the trio of horses which might finish in front of her might prove to be MANAMA, RHODODENDRON and (possibly) AMABILIS.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last nineteen years. 12 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
4.55: The Hannon team have saddled three of the last eight winners of the toteplacepot finale, with the Ascot winner GENEVA CONVENTION possible standing out from Richard's three pronged attack on this occasion. Four of the last five winners have carried a maximum weight of 8-8, with DEVILISH GUEST and IVOR'S MAGIC added into the overnight equation in this two-year-old handicap event.
Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last twelve years. Six of the last eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions which is a perfectly reasonable record as far as Nursery events are concerned.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Goodwood card on Thursday - stats up and to and including Tuesday July 26:
11--Mark Johnston (4/25 at Goodwood this season - winners at 17/2-8/1***-7/1-5/2)
5--Richard Hannon (5/31 - winners at 16/1-7/1-9/2*-9/2-3/1)
5--Amanda Perrett (0/15)
4--Richard Fahey (1/7 - winner at 6/1)
4--David Simcock (3/8 - winners at 10/1-7/1-13/8)
3--Charlie Appleby (5/12 - winners at 5/1-9/2-4/1-11/4-11/8*)
3--Andrew Balding (2/14 - winners at 4/1 & 5/2*)
3--Ralph Beckett (2/12 - winnerS AT 13/2 & 11/2)
3--Mick Channon (4/20 - winners at 16/1-7/2*-5/2*-7/4*)
3--John Gosden (1/10 - winner at 10/11*)
3--Charlie Hills (1/8 - winner at 9/4*)
3--Aidan O'Brien (1/1 - winner at 6/4*)
3--John Quinn (0/1)
3--Marcus Tregoning (1/5 - winner at 5/1)
2--George Baker (0/11)
2--Peter Chapple-Hyam (0/3)
2--Roger Charlton (2/7 - winners at 4/1*** & 2/1**)
2--William Haggas (0/5)
2--Sylvester Kirk (1/12 - winner at 11/2)
2--Sir Michael Stoute (3/10 - winners at 8/1-2/1*-13/8*)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
93 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Epsom: £504.10 - 8 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced - Andrew Balding secured a 52/1 double last year (2 runners on Thursday)
Ffos Las: £329.10 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Nottingham: £46.40 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
Stratford: £151.40 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced
Goodwood overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.35 - 4.20 - 4.55 - stats offered before Wednesday's sport had been contested at Goodwood:
13/91--Richard Hannon (Mehmas)
4/21--John Gosden (Ardad
5/22--Charlie Appleby (Blue Point)
2/2--Aidan O'Brien (Intelligence Cross)
3/45--Charlie Hills (Waqaas)
1/16--Ralph Beckett (Amabilis)
2/23--Marcus Tregoning (Argenterie - Cheeky Fox - Silver Link)
13-67--Mark Johnston (Berengara)
13/91--Richard Hannon (Helmsdale)
No runners--Jose Santos - (Lady Valdean)
5/22--Charlie Appleby (Manama)
1/13--Peter Chapple-Hyam (Miss Patience)
2/2--Aidan O'Brien (Rhododendron)
4/11--Henry Candy (Sun Angel)
No runners--John Quinn (The Stalking Moon)
0/1--Robert Eddery (Vrika Bay)
13/67--Mark Johnston (Montataire - Teofonic - Bear Valley)
13/91--Richard Hannon (Logi - Geneva Convention - At The Beach)
3/30--Richard Fahey (Lady In Question)
2/9--Tom Dascombe (Arc Royal)
3/45--Charlie Hills (Hurricane Rush)
3/9--Ed Dunlop (Global Revival)
0/14--Sylvester Kirk (Latest Quest & Challow)
0/13--George Baker (Tat Tap Boom & Brise De Mer)
9/86--Mick Channon (Devilish Guest)
0/1--David Elsworth (Ivor's Magic)
2/28--Andrew Balding (Georgio)