NEWBURY – JULY 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £35.70 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (5.55): 2 (Swanton Blue), 4 (Madame Bounty) & 7 (Lightoller)
Leg 2 (6.25): 4 (Early Dawn), 7 (LittLe Miss Lilly) & 5 (Golden Footsteps)
Leg 3 (7.00): 2 (Bhodi), 3 (Bobby’s Charm) & 1 (Alkhalifa)
Leg 4 (7.30): 3 (Cross Step), 7 (Special Relation) & 2 (The Grand Visir)
Leg 5 (8.05): 9 (Tundra) & 10 (Beck And Call)
Leg 6 (8.35): 13 (Know The Turth), 6 (So Hoity Toity) & 1 (Stararchitecture)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.55: One scenario is certainly worth keeping an eye on as local weather forecasts have changed in the last few hours suggesting that many parts could be hit by rogue showers today, some of them on the heavy side with rumbles of thunder mixed in. As suggested during the last seventeen years of writing this column, don’t take anything for granted, especially when the subject of the projected going raises its uncertain head. Few people realise that bookmakers off daily prayers for inconsistent ground. SWANTON BLUE ran well for us last time out without winning, whilst trainer Ed de Giles still has his team in decent each way order. That said, the 9/2 quote in the trade press looks a little fanciful at the time of writing. MADAME BOUNTY and LIGHTOLLER hail from in-form stables (Ed Walker and Mick Channon respectively) which ensure that this pair become competitive at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: All three favourites (via two renewals) have all been well and truly beaten.
6.25: Marco Botti was back among the winners at the weekend and those successes would have be welcomed by the trainer who has been going through a lean period by his high standards. Marco saddles EARLY DAWN with obvious claims given the strength of her debut effort at Yarmouth, not that the course in question offers too much confidence regarding future winners, not since Sir Henry Cecil’s great days at least. Others for the mix include LITTLE MISS LILLY and GOLDEN FOOTSTEPS, especially as jungle drums have been quiet as far as the newcomers are concerned.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/1 joint favourites claimed one Placepot between them last year behind horses which were both returned at 8/1.
7.00: Sir Michael Stoute is another trainer who has been having a start-stop season because when Michael hits form usually, plenty of winners flow but that has not been the case this year, not by comparison to some of his fellow trainers at least. Michael has declared his Dark Angel colt BHODI and his early February foal is one for the melting pot, arguably alongside BOBBY’S CHARM and ALKHALIFA.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged twelve months ago.
7.30: All nine winners have carried weights of 8-12 though I have only offered the stat for your records as all nine runners qualify via the weight trend this time around. Unsurprisingly from my viewpoint, THEGRAND VISIR has been attracting each way support overnight, with the William Haggas raider looking to make up for a slightly disappointing Listed race effort at the second time of asking having scored first time up. It’s a little disconcerting perhaps that William has declared headgear for the Frankel colt but that said, 10/1 (if you can still obtain such odds) looks a little over the top to this Odds Compiler. CROSS STEP and SPECIAL RELATION offer better value for money than On To Victory and are added into the equation accordingly.
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has obliged via nine renewals during the last twelve years, though the last eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1. Five of the last nine market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/2—Duke Of Bronte (good to firm)
1/1—Rosarno (good to soft)
8.05: Charlie Hills snared the first running of this contest last year, the trainer having declared his three-year-old Dark Angel filly Angel Of Darkness this time around. This looks a tough assignment however, especially with Roger Varian having entered TUNDRA. Roger is on the crest of an almighty wave right now with eight of his last nine runners having won, whereby the inclusion of TUNDRA into my Placepot mix is inevitable. A two pound rise for BECK AND CALL gives Georgia Cox a chance of riding another winner in my book, unless Roger’s raider turns the race into a procession given the form of his inmates.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position by snaring the silver medal, flanked by horses returned at 5/1 & 12/1.
8.35: I apologise (to a fashion) for the large permutation offered at Newbury tonight but after yesterday’s Bath success where we multiplied our stake fourfold, I thought this card was worth hitting as many leading trainers are going to miss out on Placepot positions race by race, irrespective of the results. My trio against the field in the ‘lucky last’ consists of KNOW THE TURTH, SO HOITY TOITY and STARARCHITECTURE. One thing I know for sure is that last year’s Placepot declaration will be well and truly ‘smashed up’ this time around.
Favourite factor: The Placepot dividend was destined to be on the low side twelve months ago as soon as the 4/5 favourite won the last leg of our favourite wager.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Richard Hannon (5/29 – loss of 3 points)
4—Charlie Hills (4/16 – Profit of 43 points)
4—Richard Hughes (0/5)
4—Brian Meehan (1/4 – Profit of 12 points)
3—Mick Channon (0/8)
3—William Haggas (2/11 – loss of 5 points)
3—Hughie Morrison (1/10 – loss of 6 points)
2—Henry Candy (0/4)
2—Paul Cole (1/6 – Loss of 1 point)
2—Clive Cox (0/10)
2—David Evans (0/11)
2—Ed de Giles (0/3)
2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/5)
2—Jo Hughes (No previous runners)
2—Malcolm Saunders (0/2)
2—David Simcock (0/5)
2—Sir Mchael Stoute (1/15 – loss of 8 points)
2—Ed Walker (2/13 – Profit of 4 points)
+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
83 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Epsom: £9.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed
Haydock: £53.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Yarmouth: £10.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Perth: £ 18.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced