NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) - JULY 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £1,200.70 (8 favourites - 2 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (Prize Money), 4 Harrison) & 9 (Shabeeb)
Leg 2 (2.40): 8 (Mehmas) & 4 (Broken Stones)
Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Exosphere) & 5 (Second Step)
Leg 4 (3.45): 18 (Bounce), 6 (Projection) & 13 (Show Stealer)
Leg 5 (4.20): 9 (Snow Squaw), 10 (Sun Angel) & 8 (Oh So Terrible)
Leg 6 (4.55): 4 (Glitter Girl) & 10 (Suffragette City)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: John Gosden offers no favours in the opening event of the meeting having won four of the last five renewals, with John not being represented this time around! Thirteen renewals had slipped past since John scored with his 1997 winner Three Cheers before the recent gold medallists. I have left this information in the analysis, knowing that some readers keep such figures for your records. Only two of Thursday's represented trainers have saddled winners of this race during the last decade, with Saeed Bin Suroor (2009) having given the green light to PRIZE MONEY, whilst Mick Channon (2006) favours HARRISON on this occasion. Both horses boast win and place claims, with SHABEEB and (possibly) HOUSESOFPARLIAMENT added into the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last nineteen years. 14 of the 22 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period. 13 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less during the last 14 years.
2.40: ’Team Hannon’ were saddling their seventh winner of this event two years back since 1989 when Rock City got the ball rolling under Willie Carson. Richard boasts obvious claims here with his Coventry Stakes runner up MEHMAS having been offered the green light. This better ground (Ascot was quite slow on the first day of the royal meeting) can only enhance his claims, and though I offered a strong selection in 14/1 winner Shalaa lat year, the favourite will surely take the beating in this renewal of the Group 2 July Stakes. If a shock ensues, BROKEN STONES (a non runner on account of the ground at Ascot) could prove to be the joker in the pack, though a bronze medal position is more probable behind MEHMAS and the 'Windsor Castle' winner ARDAD.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 favourites have secured toteplacepot dividends during the last 17 years, statistics which include three winners.
3.15: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals of this twelve furlong Group 2 event with EXOSPHERE somehow being the only vintage representative on this occasion! I said on the day that I could not split EXOSPHERE and the eventual 10/1 winner Dartmouth at Ascot, but I am much happier to side with Michael's raider under these better conditions. Seven assignments have passed since THE GREY GATSBY got his head in front where it matters most and for all his consistency, Kevin Ryan's five-year-old could prove to be a vulnerable favourite if punters latch on to the Mastercraftsman representative. SECOND STEP is preferred to last year's (25/1) winner BIG ORANGE relating to the probable bronze medallist on Wednesday)
Favourite factor: Just two favourites have scored in the last 18 years, whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the period.
3.45: Eight renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won this event, the gold medallists during those years being returned at 40/1-25/1-12/1-12/1--11/1-8/1-7/1-7/1-13/2. Eleven winners during the last thirteen years have carried a maximum weight of 9-5 whereby the top five horses are eliminated from my enquiries, leaving BOUNCE and PROJECTION to potentially dominate my toteplacepot permutation on Thursday. That said, I would feel more confident of getting through to the fifth leg of our favourite wager by adding the consistent performer SHOW STEALER into the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the study period, whilst 10 of the 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years.
4.20: I can report plenty of confidence back at the respective stables of David Elsworth and Henry Candy about SNOW SQUAW and SUN ANGEL, two newcomers that will probably be chalked up at half decent prices. OH SO TERRIBLE was withdrawn from a race recently whilst the declaration of blinkers on debut is a little off putting, though that scenario might be more commonly found back in the USA. Throw MANAMA and BELIEVABLE into the mix and we have an interesting juvenile contest to assess.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last fourteen years, whilst thirteen of those winners were returned at odds of 12/1 or less.
4.55: This is the second heat of the previous race and SUFFRAGETTE CITY ran well enough on debut (despite running green in stages) to suggest that a race is on the radar for Richard Hannon's Dragon Pulse filly. That said, I have good reports about GLITTER GIRL whilst the Godolphin Pair BOUQUET DE FLORES (Charlie Appleby) and EASY VICTORY (Saeed Bin Suroor) should both figure prominently at the first time of asking. William Haggas is not one to go shouting about his horses (particularly in the juvenile sector) whereby his quote about GLITTER GIRL at a recent stable tour "I like her, she's racy and active" is worth taking on board.
Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Thursday:
6 runners--Saeed Bin Suroor (2/4 at Newmarket - July Course - this season - winners at 2/1* & 2/1**)
5--Richard Hannon (2/23 - winners at 8/1 & 3/1*)
4--Charlie Appleby (0/1)
4--John Gosden (1/15 - winner at 7/4*)
4--Charlie Hills (1/7 - winner at 3/1*)
4--Mark Johnston (1/5 - winner at 11/8*)
4--Kevin Ryan (0/3)
4--Sir Michael Stoute (1/6 - winner at 6/1)
3--Ed Dunlop (1/4 - winner at 5/1)
3--Aidan O'Brien (---)
3--Roger Varian (0/2)
2--Andrew Balding (0/6)
2--Karl Burke (2/3 - winners at 5/1 & 11/4)
2--Henry Candy (0/5)
2--Mick Channon (0/2)
2--David Elsworth (0/5)
2--William Haggas (1/4 - winner at 11/4)
2--Dean Ivory (0/2)
2--George Margarson (0/1)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
91 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £32.90 - 7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced
Doncaster: £11.00 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced
Epsom: £95.60 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced
Newbury: £225.80 - 6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Newmarket overview - Five year (July course) juvenile records of represented trainers in the relevant races:
11/59--John Gosden (Ardad)
6/51--Charlie Hills (Barrington)
1/23--Andrew Balding (Bohemian Flame)
2/12--Kevin Ryan (Broken Stones)
1/7--Aidan O'Brien (Intelligence Cross)
8/58--Mark Johnston (Love Dreams & Yalta)
2/8--Karl Burke (Medici Banchiere)
19/110--Richard Hannon (Mehmas)
13/53--Saeed Bin Suroor (Silver Line)
6/51-- Charlie Hills (Arwa)
3/38--Sir Michael Stoute (Believable)
2/8--Karl Burke (Copper Baked)
11/59--John Gosden (Hawana)
5/39--Ed Dunlop (Instigation & The Lacemaker)
1/5--James Fanshawe (Magical Dreamer)
13/64--Charlie Appleby (Manama)
No runners--Wesley A Ward (Oh So Terrible)
3/31--David Elsworth (Snow Squaw)
0/10--Henry Candy (Sun Angel)
5/45--Mick Channon (Texas Katie)
13/64--Charlie Appleby (Boquet De Flores)
0/4--Gay Kelleway (Cadela Rica)
13/53--Saeed Bin Suroor (Easy Victory)
3/33--William Haggas (Glitter Girl)
0/2--Gary Moore (Grand Myla)
1/16--David Simcock (Island In The Sky)
5/39--Ed Dunlop (Marwa)
No runners--George Margarson (Miss Sayif)
1/16--James Tate (Mythical Spirit)
19/110--Richard Hannon (Suffragete City)
0/24--Ralph Beckett (Tropical Rock)