HAMILTON – JUNE 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £35.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Hamilton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Villa Tora) & 5 (Double Reflection)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Noah Amor), 1 (One Boy) & 5 (Mitchum)
Leg 3 (3.00): 9 (Baron Run), 8 (Control Centre) & 7 (Love Oasis)
Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Buonarotti), 4 (Navajo War Dance) & 9 (Falcon’s Fire)
Leg 5 (4.00): 7 (Titi Makfi) & 1 (Forever a Lady)
Leg 6 (4.30): 5 (Archipeligo), 6 (King Of Paradise) & 9 (Haymarket)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: There is a huge discrepancy regarding the price of Mark Johnston’s VILLA TORA in this opening event, with Paddy Power going as short as 8/13 about the projected favourite, whilst Ladbrokes are quoting even money at the time of writing. In case your abacus is not functioning too well this morning, the differential in odds is the equivalent of a horse being backed from 3/1 to 7/4; hence my bringing the scenario to your attention. With DOUBLE REFLECTION on offer between 6/1 and 9/1 early doors today, it seems that VILLA TORA might be returned at around the 8/11 mark and dropping back in trip here, Joe Fanning’s mount should get the majority of punters off to a decent start.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Hamilton card with which to open proceedings.
2.30: With several runners approaching the veteran stage here, four-year-old NOAH AMOR could score again (vintage representatives have secured five of the last nine contests), though the David O’Meara runners continue to blow hot and cold this term whereby any win money will be safely held under lock and key as far as this event is concerned. A winner of three of his last four races, NOAH AMOR tends to be up and gone before some jockeys have got the blinds off their mounts, a scenario I expect to be repeated again this afternoon. Connections hoping that the projected market leader misses a beat or two this time around include those of ONE BOY and MITCHUM, alternative options with win and place claims if you want to oppose the jolly.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last nine years though that said, seven of the other eight gold medallists have been returned in single figures. Six of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame during the last decade.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/3—Jack Luey (heavy)
4/14—Bronze Beau (2 x soft – good – good to firm)
3.00: It’s worth having a look at the negative favourite figures below in case you are ready to plunge into one of the fancied horses in the field. BARON RUN is offered in double figures in a place at the time of writing and with the Karl Burke raider being at home on whichever ground conditions ensue, there will be worse ‘outsiders’ on the day I’ll wager. His 5/9 record at the track adds plenty of confidence from a Placepot angle, with CONTROL CENTRE expected to offer most resistance on the run to the line. A five time course and distance winner, BARON RUN only wins here at Hamilton whereby the 10/1 quote might not last too long this morning via each way investors. Others for the melting pot include the afore-mentioned COLTROL CENTRE (first run for a new yard) and fellow three-year-old LOVE OASIS.
Favourite factor: Only two of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions via four renewals which have been won by horses returned at 28/1-18/1-10/1-10/1.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/4—Sir Domino (soft)
1/3—Picks Pinta (good to firm)
2/3—Reckless Serenade (good to soft & soft)
5/9—Baron Run (2 x goof to firm – 2 x good to soft – good)
3.30: There a couple of reasons to consider BUONAROTTI this afternoon from my viewpoint, especially with trainer Declan Carroll having won with his last two runners. Declan posted his best monthly score in nearly four years in May, whilst it’s interesting to note that Mark Johnston is not represented in the race, with Joe Fanning taking the ride aboard the six-year-old. Tony has only ridden the horse once before (the thick end of two years ago) when the combination were only two lengths adrift of the winner at the jamstick. Add the fact that BUONAROTTI runs off the same mark here as when last successful and you might understand my interest. Clifford Lee remains good value for his five pound claim which will aid and abet the chance of NAVAJO WAR DANCE, whilst FALCON’S FIRE completes my trio against the other contenders.
Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Hamilton programme.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
1/5—Spes Nostra (good)
2/12—Archie’s Advice (good to soft & soft)
1/3—Falcon’s Fire (soft)
4.00: Mark (Johnstone) and Joe (Fanning) reunite here with TITI MAKFI who was not beaten far in any of the four beaten assignments as a juvenile last season, once the cobwebs had been blown away on debut at Newcastle. Mark’s filly gets in off a reasonable figure here, receiving weight all round and as much as 16 pounds from FOREVER A LADY who nonetheless, remains the biggest threat according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Four renewals have slipped by since the only (joint) favourite obliged via six contests to date. That said, the biggest priced winner was returned at 8/1 though conversely, the last four market leaders are still being sought by detectives in the area,
4.30: KING OF PARADISE is overpriced at 20/1 in places from my viewpoint, the six time course winner being able to win races under all types of conditions. Throw in the fact that Eric Alston saddled a winner on Tuesday and who knows, we might be on another big priced winner this week! That said, I would not argue against anyone pointing out that via recent form lines, the likes of ARCHIPELIGO and HAYMARKET are two other each way options to ponder in a tough event to assess.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/2 favourite finished out with the washing before last year’s 8/11 market leader made amends for the majority of punters.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/7—Amy Blair (good & heavy)
6/19—King Of Paradise (2 x good – 2 x soft – good to soft – good to firm)
3/10—Indian Giver (2 x good & soft)
2/6—Cadmium (good & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Hamilton card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
11 runners—Keith Dalgleish (2/15 – loss of 2 points)
5—Mark Johnston (0/8)
4—Karl Burke (1/1 – Profit of 2 points)
4—Ian Jardine (0/4)
4—Lee Smyth (No runners)
3—Eric Alston (No runners)
3—Richard Fahey (0/3)
2—Marjorie Fife (No runners)
2—Lawrence Mullaney (No runners)
2—David O’Meara (1/3 (Profit of 3 points)
2—Linda Perratt (0/3)
2—John David Riches (0/2)
+ 18 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chelmsford: £145.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £43.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Newcastle: £18.50 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £137.20 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Ffos Las: £800.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced