ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 16
Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last five years:
2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £655.30
32 favourites - 10 winners - 9 placed - 13 unplaced
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 5 (Peace Envoy), 11 (Red Lodge) & 2 (Global Surprise)
Leg 2 (3.05): 5 (Mulk) & 3 (Hawkbill)
Leg 3 (3.40): 2 (Architecture), 5 (Chicadoro) & 7 (Even Song)
Leg 4 (4.20): 14 (Order Of St George) & 3 (Flying Officer)
Leg 5 (5.00): 5 (Predelection), 13 (Mustashry), 21 (Out And About) & 16 (Garcia)
Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Soldier In Action), 13 (Point Of View) & 6 (Lovell)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.30: March and April foals have ruled this particular juvenile event in recent times whereby my enthusiasm regarding the chances of PEACE ENVOY and RED LODGE has grown overnight. There might not be a great deal of daylight between the pair at the business end of proceedings, with Ed Dunlop's dual winner GLOBAL SURPRISE also expected to figure prominently. The only time that the latter named Mayson colt tasted defeat was over a longer trip and even then, the winner that day was Mehmas who ran so well in the 'Coventry' on the first day of the royal meeting..
Favourite factor: 11 of the 20 favourites during the last 18 years claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include just four winners. However, 10 of the last 15 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (statistics include four winners and four market leaders which finished second).
3.05: Although favourites have a decent record in this event (see stats below) two of the last ten winners have scored at 33/1 & 20/1, facts which should keep us ‘on our toes’. Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last five renewals is which the yard has been represented, with MULK fancied to finish ahead of his stable companion ABDON on this occasion. Whether either of Michael's colts will be able to cope with BLUE DE VEGA and HAWKBILL is another matter entirely. William Buick has partnered HAWKBILL on all of his four successive victories to date and the 'nap hand' is a definite possibility on Thursday.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via sixteen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000. All the other market leaders (aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.
3.40: Irish trainers have snared four of the last five renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and with the lone successful English handler (Lady Cecil) having retired, Aidan O'Brien EVEN SONG) might fancy his chances, albeit Aidan is the only Irish handler to up the challenge this time around. The German raider OLALA cannot be left out of the overnight equation though with twelve representatives this time around, surely English trainers can go into battle with more than a degree of confidence between them. The pick of the relevant dozen declarations should prove to be ARCHITECTURE and CHICODORO.
Favourite factor: Just two clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1. Fourteen of the twenty one market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled six of the last ten winners of the Gold Cup whilst on one of the other three occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck six years back, notwithstanding another silver medallist twelve months ago. Aidan saddles ORDER OF ST GEORGE this time around with definite claims, with the Galileo colt coming to the gig on a five-timer. Another prolific winner in the field is CLEVER COOKIE who has prevailed in half of his 22 assignments to date, whilst others for the overnight mix include FLYING OFFICER and sporting each way types such as FUNMAC and SHEIKHZAYEDROAD.
Favourite factor: Eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last nineteen years, statistics which include eight winning favourites during the study period.
Record of course winners in the 'Gold Cup':
1/3--Flying Officer (good to soft)
2/4--Mizzou (Good to firm & good to soft)
1/4--Pallasator (good to firm)
5.00: 11 of the last 12 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-10 or more, statistics which eliminates four of the field if you trust the stats, as opposed to fifteen twelve months ago. Fifteen years have lapsed since John Gosden's last winner of this event when the popular handler was greeting his fourth winner of the race in six years. I'm buoyed by the fact that John has but one bite of the cherry this time around, and with 'Frankie' booked to ride PREDILECTION, the First Defence colt is the name on my team sheet, especially as John had singled out his juvenile as a cut above the majority of his two-year-olds at the time eighteen months ago, before he had set foot on a racecourse. MUSTASHRY, GARCIA and OUT AND ABOUT are feared most, with YATTWEE nominated as the overnight reserve.
Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last nineteen years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999. Nine of the twenty three favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the Brittania Stakes:
1/1--Wall Of Fire (good to soft)
2/2--Taurean Star (good to firm & good to soft)
5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fourteen contests with the trainer holding three cards in his hand this time around, SOLDIER IN ACTION and JUSTE POUR NOUS are preferred to stable companion Second Serve as horses with win and place claims, especially as the last 14 winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less. Others of interest down towards the bottom of the handicap include POINT OF VIEW and LOVELL.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 23 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 16 years (four winners).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Royal Ascot card on Thursday:
8--Richard Hannon (1/17 at Ascot this season - before Wednesday's sport was contested)
7--Sir Michael Stoute (1/4)
6--Mark Johnston (1/9)
6--Aidan O'Brien (1/5)
5--John Gosden (2/8)
4--Charlie Appleby (1/10)
4--Hugo Palmer (2/4)
3--Tom Dascombe (0/2)
3--Richard Fahey (0/4)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (2/6)
2--Andrew Balding (0/5)
2--Ralph Beckett (0/3)
2--Luca Cumani (1/2)
2--Ed Dunlop (--)
2--William Haggas (0/7)
2--Brian Meehan (0/1)
2--Jamie Osborne (0/1)
2--David Simcock (0/1)
2--Roger Varian (2/7)
+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
103 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chelmsford: £32.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Ffos Las (NH): £400.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Leicester: £90.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Lingfield (A/W): £12.90 (7 favourites - 5 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Ripon: £42.50 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Royal Ascot overview:
Represented trainers in the juvenile race on Day 3 who have saddled winners in the the last five years:
Richard Hannon (8/1) - Legendary Lunch
Aidan O'Brien (12/1) - Peace Envoy
Wesley A Ward (4/1) - Red Lodge