ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 22
Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last six years:
2016: £298.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £595.85
39 favourites - 12 winners - 10 placed - 17 unplaced
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (McErin), 14 (Santry) & 8 (Koditime)
Leg 2 (3.05): 9 (Mirage Dancer), 16 (Tamleek) & 3 (Benbati)
Leg 3 (3.40): 8 (Mori) & 1 (Alluringly)
Leg 4 (4.20): 3 (Order Of St George) & 13 (Simple Verse)
Leg 5 (5.00): 10 (Hyde Park), 16 (City Of Joy), 20 (Colibri) & 5 (Executive Force)
Leg 6 (5.35): 2 (Sofia’s Rock), 5 (Master Singer), 13 (Shymkent) & 15 (Mister Manduro)
Suggested stake: 576 bets to 10p stakes (Thursday’s card has the potential of producing a huge dividend)
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.30: March and April foals have ruled this particular juvenile event in recent times whereby my enthusiasm regarding the chance of MCERIN (drawn 10/18) has grown overnight, particularly as he is Wesley Ward’s only runner on the day. Course and distance winner FROZEN ANGEL would have been offered an each way shout, though trap three does Tom Dascombe’s raider no favours at all from what we witnessed yesterday when stable companion Formidable Kitt ran well for a long way on the ‘wrong side’ of the straight course. The same comment applies to NINE BELOW ZERO (4), though the impressive York winner SANTRY looks to have been drawn a better hand in stall 16. Clive Cox has a chance of following up yesterday’s impressive winner (Heartache) with KODITIME (18). In thankfully a more open juvenile contest to assess, CARDSHARP (15) cannot be entirely ruled out of the equation.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 21 favourites during the last 19 years claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include just four winners. However, 10 of the last 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (statistics include four winners and four market leaders which finished second).
Record of course winners in the Norfolk Stakes:
1/1—Frozen Angel (good to firm)
3.05: Although favourites have a decent win record in this event (see stats below) two of the last eleven winners have scored at 33/1 & 20/1, facts which should keep us ‘on our toes’. Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last six renewals is which the yard has been represented, with MIRAGE DANCER expected to be one Michael’s likelier winners at the royal meeting this week. An impressive winner on debut at Doncaster last year, MIRAGE DANCER ran well enough at Chester to suggest that the Frankel colt has a decent future. Connections might have most to fear from Saeed Bin Suroor’s pair TAMLEEK and BENBATI.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via seventeen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000. All the other market leaders (bar one--aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.
3.40: Irish trainers have snared five of the last six renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and with the lone successful English handler (Lady Cecil) having retired, Aidan O'Brien (ALLURINGLY) might fancy his chances of landing his third victory in the race though the first of those success was not registered until 2014. Aidan’s filly has shown an admirable consistent streak and as O’Brien’s only entry, the Fastnet Rock filly should figure prominently again. MORI might stand in her way from a win perspective however with Sir Michael Stoute’s hat trick seeker due to be partnered by Pat Smullen. I have repeatedly declared my views via this column that Pat remains one of the most underrated pilots in all of my fifty odd years of enjoying the sport. I’m hoping that the partnership snare gold again this afternoon. HERTFORD DANCER might reward each way investors if that is the way you want to play the race.
Favourite factor: Just three clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having also been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1. Fifteen of the twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the 'Ribblesdale':
1/1—Mori (good to firm)
4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven of the last eleven winners of the Gold Cup whilst on one of the other four occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck seven years back, notwithstanding another silver medallist two years ago. Aidan saddles last year’s winner ORDER OF ST GEORGE this time around with obvious claims, the trainer stating yesterday that he seems to be spot on to retain his title, chiefly at the expense of BIG ORANGE and SIMPLE VERSE. These findings are not particularly orinigal I know, but this is a race which is high on numbers but especially short of potential winners. That said, there will be worse 16/1 chances on the card than SWEET SELECTION I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last twenty years, statistics which include nine winning favourites during the study period.
Record of course winners in the 'Gold Cup':
1/3—Big Orange (good)
1/2—Order Of St George (soft)
1/2—Quest For More (good)
2/5—Trip To Paris (good & good to firm)
1/3—Simple Verse (good to soft)
1/1—Sweet Selection (good to firm)
5.00: 12 of the last 13 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-10 or more, statistics which eliminates four of the field if you trust the weight trend. The first thing to say is that no course winners are involved which is something of a surprise, whilst I will obviously major on the draw here following the ‘success’ of my findings in the Royal Hunt Cup yesterday. Putting the stats and facts together produces a ‘short list’ of HYDE PARK, CITY OF JOY and COLIBRI. For insurance purposes (particularly for those of you perming forecast selections together etc), I’ll add EXECUTIVE FORCE and SON OF THE STARS to the mix. That all said, there remains a slight risk of the odd thunderstorm in the Ascot area so as ever, be watchful and act accordingly, possibly replacing some of those offered with lower drawn horses.
Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last 20 years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999. Nine of the twenty four favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Draw stats – most recent result listed first followed by SP details:
12-18-23-30 (28 ran-good to soft) – 13/2-20/1-12/1-66/1
11-3-31-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 10/1-14/1-28/1-33/1
26-20-12-30 (30 ran-good to firm) – 14/1-25/1-8/1-7/1*)
15-12-24-30 (27 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-33-1/16-17/2*
6-7-17-3 (29 ran-good to soft) – 6/1*-50/1-20/1-40/1
23-15-18-30 (29 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-20/1-100/1-10/1
6-31-29-23 (27 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-33/1-40/1-33/1
18-20-3-4 (30 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-22/1-16/1-20/1
30-12-4-27 (28 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-20/1-12/1-33/1
2-29-16-11 (30 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-16/1-33/1-4/1*
Horses draw 15 or lower: 6 wins & 12 places – Higher: 4 wins & 18 places
Average price of the winner: 11/1 – Average prices of placed horses: 16/1
Horses drawn higher tend to produce more ‘masses’ in terms of potential forecasts/tricasts as was the case yesterday whereby the same advice applies.
5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fifteen contests (five renewals going back further in time) with the trainer holding just the three cards in his hand this time. SOFIA’S ROCK looks to be the trump card this time around ahead of MISTER MANDURO. Others of interest down towards the bottom of the handicap include MASTER SINGER, SHYMKENT and ATTY PERSSE, especially as 13 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less. SOFIA’S ROCK sits two pounds above the ‘superior’ sector of the weights, though last year’s winner carried the same burden to winning effect.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 24 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 17 years (four winners).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (three or more) on the Royal Ascot card on Thursday followed by their ratios this week at the meeting:
8 runners—John Gosden (0/12)
8—Mark Johnston (0/6)
7—Aidan O’Brien (1/15)
6—Charlie Appleby (1/8)
5—Richard Hannon (1/9)
5—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/4)
4—Ralph Beckett (0/2)
4—David O’Meara (0/1)
4—Hugo Palmer (0/1)
3—Roger Charlton (0/2)
3—William Haggas (0/7)
3—Charlie Hills (0/7)
3—David Simcock 0/1)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (0/5)
3—Roger Varian (0/5)
108 runners in total
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chelmsford: £312.10 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Ffos Las (NH): £261.60 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Lingfield (A/W): £151.70 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Ripon: £40.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)