NEWMARKET (JULY) – JUNE 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £19.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)
Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (5.45): 2 (Snappy Guest), 3 (Severus) & 7 (Henshaw)
Leg 2 (6.20): 2 (Bouquet De Flores) & 9 (Tuisbutadream)
Leg 3 (6.55): 2 (North Creek), 7 (Sainted) & 3 (Generalship)
Leg 4 (7.25): 3 (Muaither) & 4 (Aristocles)
Leg 5 (7.55): 4 (Mehronissa) & 1 (Golden Amber)
Leg 6 (8.25): 4 (Four On Eight) & 6 (Cat Royale)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.45: The eleven winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 18 of the 32 horses (56%) to have claimed toteplacepot positions have started at 7/1 or more. The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving other to invest from a win perspective. The last eight winners (and ten of the eleven in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other seven contenders consists of SNAPPY GUEST, SEVERUS and HENSHAW.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date. Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until two years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions.
6.20: In terms of reports before the newcomers make their debuts, BOUQUET DE FLORES and TISBUTADREAM make the most appeal with the damn of the latter named David Elsworth raider having produced two winners from as many foals to date. BOUQUET DE FLORES is well thought of back at the (Charlie Appleby) ranch and this daughter of Street Cry is expected to run well on her first day at school before making her presence felt at a high level over the coming months.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket card via the BHA two-year-old (Novice) system which was brought into place earlier in the year.
6.55: 10 of the last 12 winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 (last year's gold medallist scored of 9-1) with NORTH CREEK, SAINTED and GENERALSHIP all fancied to figure prominently on this occasion. Chris Wall had won with four of his last four runners at the time of writing, whereby the trio are listed in order of preference albeit marginally in a tight looking contest.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.
7.25: Horses carrying at least 9-1 have secured eight of the thirteen available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the five winners at odds of 9/1-9/2-10/3-3/1. MUAITHER and REGAL MONARCH make most appeal via just three qualifiers this time around. ARISTOCLES might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, especially with Sir Michael Stoute saddling just this one runner over the first two days of the three day meeting, having secured a couple of winners during the corresponding fixtures twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured two toteplacepot postions (gold and silver medallists) between them to date.
7.55: MEHRONISSA is the only course winner on the card and although this is another 'short field' event, Ed Vaughan's consistent filly could win her fifth race on her tenth assignment in this Conditions event. The official ratings suggest that GOLDEN AMBER should go close, especially with Dean Ivory's team enjoying a an extended spell of good form in recent weeks..
Favourite factor: Five clear favourites and one joint market leader have scored via the last seventeen renewals of this event which is confined to fillies. 11 of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winner in the fifth race on the card:
8.25: Three-year-olds came to the last year's party on a four timer and although denied on that occasion, the race is expected to revert to type, especially with Luca Cumani's beaten favourite FOUR ON EIGHT being offered an obvious chance to atone for the recent defeat. Luca's Lawman colt is the first name on the team sheet ahead of fellow vintage raiders CAT ROYALE and NOT TOUCH.
Favourite factor: Nine market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last nineteen years, statistics which include four winners.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday:
4--Michael Appleby (1/18 at Newmarket during the last five years)
4--Richard Hannon (24/118 - 1/12 this season - winner at 3/1*)
3--Phil McBride (7/56)
2--John Gallagher (1/5)
2--John Gosden (39/179 - 1/8 this season - winner at 7/4*)
2--Martyn Meade (3/26 - 1/3 this season - winner at 3/1)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Cartmel: 824.90 - 7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced
Chester: 50.40 - 8 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced
Doncaster: 897.50 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced
Newcastle - now A/W - was turf: £101.30 - 6 favourite - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced
Yarmouth: No meeting last year
Newmarket overview - relating to their juvenile event at 6.20
5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector:
No runners--Michael Appleby (Amathyst)
13/64--Charlie Appleby (Bouquet De Flores)
No runners--Charlie Wallis (Ciel Rouge)
18/104--Richard Hannon (Fabric & Paulownier - 0/2 from two this season)
0/11--Paul D'Arcy (Pemberley House)
0/8--Mark Tompkins (Sandwood Bay)
2/22--Phil McBride (Spiritual Lady)
3/30--David Elsworth (Tisbutadream)