NEWBURY – JUNE 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £281.00 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (5.50): 14 (Delfie Lane), 15 (Pursuing Steed) & 13 (Diable D’Or)
Leg 2 (6.20): 1 (Lexington Grace) 5 (One For June)
Leg 3 (6.50): 15 (Tig Tog), 16 (Time Change) & 14 (The Mums)
Leg 4 (7.25): 9 (Sporting Times), 5 (Wannebe Friends) & 1 (Hollywood Road)
Leg 5 (8.00): 12 (Flood Defence) & 3 (Dance Teacher)
Leg 6 (8.30): 6 (Showmethewayavrilo), 5 (Swanton Blue) & 10 (Indian Affair)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.50: The first horse I homed in on in the inaugural running of this event twelve months ago was Brian Meehan’s 8/1 winner Kitaaby. Only a trio of three-year-olds contested the event, though that did not stop vintage representatives producing a 62/1 Exacta forecast between them. Three-year-olds are around the 7/4 mark to score again, with DELFIE LANE, PURSUING STEED and DIABLE D’OR appearing to be be their strongest contenders from six options. Another relevant raider is awarded the reserve nomination namely CHICA DE LA NOCHE. One renewal hardly offers a trend I know, though the trio I have most confidence in all hail from stables who have sent out plenty of winners of late.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite just missed out on a Placepot by finishing fourth behind horses which filled the frame at 8/1, 9/2 & 6/1.
Record of the course winner in the opening contest:
1/2—Danecase (good to firm)
6.20: The additional sixth furlong seemed to make all the difference as far as LEXINGTON GRACE was concerned the last day when the Sir Prancealot filly made it fourth time lucky with Sean Levey in the saddle. Richard Hannon offsets the penalty with seven pounds claimer Rossa Ryan this time around, though potential investors should not worry too much as Rossa is a six time winner in the plate whereby the late May foal could improve again to complete the double. Connections might have most to fear from the likes of ONE FOR JUNE and COVE BEACH who could outrun her odds at a big price.
Favourite factor: Don’t think that I have copied and pasted from the previous race when informing that last year’s inaugural (9/4) favourite just missed out on a Placepot by finishing fourth, this time behind horses which filled the frame at 25/1, 8/1 & 11/4.
6.50: Although put in at 13/8 in a few places, TIME CHANGE is freely available at 5/2 at the time of writing and I can understand layers wanting to get her ‘into the book’ at 13/8, which represents a 38% chance of winning the contest. That said, I might just bring a halt to those proceedings if plenty of rain fell at Newbury today, given that her decent debut effort at Doncaster was gained under soft conditions. If the ground retains the word good in the going description, I would be inclined to offer chances to TIG TOG (10/1 in places this morning looks too big to me) and THE MUMS.
Favourite factor: Last year’s (John Gosden trained) 6/5 favourite found one too good for her when flanked by horses which were both sent off at 20/1.
7.25: Ed Dunlop (SPORTING TIMES) has hardly had a great season to date though that said, the trainer is consistently sending out winners every three or four days at present and his Sir Percy gelding has run three decent races on going either side of good thus far, whereby today’s conditions should hold no fears for connections. Money has arrived for HOLLYWOOD ROAD overnight which not surprising, given the Don Cantillon’s raider has followed victories by scoring again when successful in the past, whereby the recent Windsor gold medallist demands plenty of respect. Richard Hughes is enjoying his best spell since taking out a license just now whereby WANNABE FRIENDS has to be included in the Placepot mix at the very least.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 2/1 market leader duly obliged in what was the fourth consecutive new race at the meeting.
Record of course winner in the fourth event:
1/7--Cricklewood Green (good)
8.00: Six of the seven winners have carried weights between nine stones and 9-6 which eliminates the top horse in the handicap, leaving the merits of DANCE TEACHER and FLOOD DEFENCE to consider first and foremost. Regular readers will know that I have majored on Chris Wall’s runners at Yarmouth down the years but moreover, I have successfully sided with his raiders away from the seaside track when there is a meeting due on the coast. That is the case here with Yarmouth due to stage a meeting on Friday, with Chris having declared FLOOD DEFENCE in this event. Maybe the results have been straight out of the ‘coincidental manual’ but either way, I can’t help but notice the entry today. DANCE TEACHER has burned the fingers of investors on consecutive occasions when made favourite in handicap contests but Ralph Beckett appears to have found another decent opportunity for his Lope De Vega filly. Dance Teacher brings the ‘Billy Elliott’ film straight to mind with Julie Walters & Jamie Bell offering that wonderful ‘I Like To Boogie’ routine which is a great way to kick start Thursday from my viewpoint. ‘Singing In The Rain’ it might not be but let’s give credit to British film makers where it is due eh!
Favourite factor: Only one of the seven favourites (the 2014 winner at 9/4) has finished in the frame thus far.
8.30: SHOWMETHEWAYAVRILO and SWANTON BLUE hail from the in-form yards of Malcolm Saunders and Ed de Giles respectively and cannot be left out of the Placepot equation in the considered opinion of yours truly. I very rarely get the Milton Bradley horses right but if I offer chances to the first named pair, INDIAN AFFAIR has to be considered too, given that the seven-year-old is closely linked with both of the afore mentioned beasts via recent meetings. That said, Milton has also declared Divine Call and knowing my luck with his runners, I’ve called the wrong one! Out of interest, INDIAN AFFAIR remains in the mix for two Doncaster and Windsor events on Saturday at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: This race has been upped in trip from five to six furlongs whereby it is now deemed as a new event.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card (two or more) on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Richard Hannon (5/25 – Profit of 1 point)
4—Sylvester Kirk (0/7)
3—Ralph Beckett (1/10 – loss of 1 point)
3—Charlie Hills (2/13 – Profit of 26 points)
3—Richard Hughes (0/2)
3—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/3)
3—Hughie Morrison (0/8)
3—Jonathan Portman (0/3)
2—Michael Attwater (0/1)
2—George Baker (0/6)
2—Milton Bradley (No previous runners)
2—Paul Cole (1/4—Slight profit)
2—Ken Cunningham-Brown (No previous runners)
2—Ed Dunlop (0/7)
2—Harry Dunlop (0/2)
2—David Evans (0/9)
2—John Gosden (7/20 – Profit of 20 points)
2—Dean Ivory (0/2)
2—Alan King (1/4 – slight loss)
2—Stuart Kittow (0/1)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/2)
2—Malcolm Saunders (No previous runners)
2—Roger Teal (0/1)
+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
98 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newmarket: £23.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Nottingham: £21.10 – 7 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Hamilton: £26.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Newcastle: £27.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced