WARWICK – MARCH 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £197.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Warwick:
Leg 1 (1.50): 10 (Longtown), 5 (Earlshill) & 6 (Forgetthesmalltalk)
Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Tommy The Rascal), 1 (Celtic Tune) & 3 (You Too Pet)
Leg 3 (2.50): 4 (Deauville Crystal) & 1 (Magie Du Ma)
Leg 4 (3.25): 2 (Sun Cloud), 3 (Azure Fly) & 4 (After Hours)
Leg 5 (4.00): 13 (Samingarry), 12 (Two Swallows) & 5 (Ballyculla)
Leg 6 (4.35): 4 (Rambling Rector) & 5 (Whisky In The Jar)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: We are affected by the ‘Easter scenario’ again for the next few days given that ‘Lincoln Week’ was earlier in the year twelve months ago. Corresponding meetings are therefore a little up in the air aside from the two day Doncaster meeting this weekend followed by Aintree which starts a week today. To give you slightly more idea of what I mean, Newbury’s meeting last weekend was held this Friday/Saturday twelve months ago, etc., etc. Alan King’s runners appear to be running well enough, though the lack of actual victories is a cause for concern relating to the chance of FORGETTHESMALLTALK. Alan’s 9% strike rate in March is well below the trainer’s usual return. From a win perspective accordingly, I prefer the likes of LONGTOWN and EARLSHILL. Thursday is forecast to be a ‘drying day’ which might go against the chance of Burrow’s Park.
Favourite factor: The lone 15/8 favourite to date secured a Placepot position last year without winning the relevant contest.
2.20: A trappy event and no mistake, whilst a non-runner would add salt to the wound given the ‘win only’ factor which would arise in such circumstances. It’s difficult to fancy any horse with conviction though equally, impossible to rule out any of the five runners with any degree of certainty. Only Jonjo O’Neill (CELTIC TUNE) and Jenny Candlish (TOMMY THE RASCAL) have saddled a few recent winners which adds their inmates to the short list, accompanied by YOU TOO PET, purely from a potential value for money from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the frame.
2.50: Nigel Hawke (DEAUVILLE CRYSTAL) is riding the crest of a wave right now having saddled 14 winners since the end of January via a 24.6% strike rate. The previous nine months had yielded nine victories to give you the full impact of what the trainer has achieved of late. MAGIE DU MA demands plenty of attention having contested the Triumph Hurdle earlier this month to decent effect following a long break.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Warwick card.
3.25: Overnight conditions of the steeplechase course were (seemingly) better than on the hurdle track which could go against the chance of Saroque, which leaves SUN CLOUD and AZURE FLY as my main selections in a ‘short field’ event which takes plenty of unravelling. AFTER HOURS is offered the reserve nomination following a long period of head scratching! New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders have claimed just one Placepot position between them thus far (no winners).
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
2/3—Russe Blanc (soft & heavy)
4.00: SAMINGARRY is the other Nigel Hawke runner on the card (the trainer also has two in at Taunton today), with the recent Haydock runner up holding each way claims in a race which should not prove difficult to win, despite the number of declarations. Nigel’s ten-year-old has been dealt leniently by the officially assessor, remaining on the 120 (hurdle) mark having only been beaten a short head at the northern venue with the same claimer aboard. TWO SWALLOWS and BALLYCULLA are others to consider in yet another race which should contribute towards a half decent Placepot dividend, given the ‘make up’ of the races on offer.
Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite though one of the two market leaders finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—Catching On (heavy)
1/5—Saint John Henry (soft)
4.35: I talked of a decent Placepot dividend in the making just now, though this race appears to be ‘cut and dried’ by the leading trio in the market, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be RAMLING RECTOR and WHISKY IN THE JAR. By the by, I have looked up the reference regarding the saying ‘cut and dried’ finding this explanation; It's a metaphoric reference to grass/hay/herbs/etc. being cut, dried, and thus ready for sale/use (nothing more needs to be done). By extension it comes to mean no more discussion needs to take place. By further extension, no decision or thought is required at all. My excuse of a brain can cope with that even during the period of dis-ease I am experiencing of late for which I offer apologies again, particularly referring to yesterday's absence.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Warwick card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Jonjo O’Neil (2/29 – loss of 12 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (2/17 – loss of 12 points)
3—Alan King (5/25 – loss of 10 points)
3—Charlie Longsdon (5/20 – Profit of 7 points)
3—David Pipe (1/17 – loss of 8 points)
3—Dan Skelton (5/35 – loss of 19 points)
3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/27 – loss of 1 point)
3—Venetia Williams (4/16 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Kim Bailey (2/12 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Bob Buckler (No previous runners this season)
2—Jennie Candlish (0/5)
2—Nickky Evans (1/4 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Nick Gifford (0/2)
2—Warren Greatrex (2/14 – loss of 2 points)
2—Nugel Hawke (1/4 (Slight profit)
2—Mark Rimell (No previous runners this season)
2—Jamie Snowden (0/4)
2—Lucy Wadham (1/9 – loss of 3 points)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Taunton: No meeting
Chelmsford: £544.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £148.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced