CARLISLE – MARCH 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £103.60 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Raise A Spark), 4 (Almost Gemini) & 1 (Morning Royalty)
Leg 2 (2.35): 9 (Massini’s Lady), 3 (Dickie Darsie) & 6 (Westend Theatre)
Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Johanos) & 6 (Thomas Do)
Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Dartford Warbler) & 2 (Mossies Well)
Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Present Times), 2 (Wazowski) & 1 (Charmant)
Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Loch Ba) & 4 (Wicklow Lad)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Six-year-olds have secured four of the previous seven renewals of this 'hands and heels' contest, whilst seven gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 11-3. I have left the vintage trend in for your records (no representatives this year) along with the weight records with all four runners ‘qualifying’ this time around. With the possible exception of Pistol, this four runner opening event is a tough contest to assess, so much so that I will be adding the three remaining horses into the mix, hoping that the horse with the least number of Placepot units prevails. Listed in marginal order of preference at the time of writing, RAISE A SPARK, ALMOST GEMINI and MORNING ROYALTY will carry my cash. Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops this morning in your quest to obtain the best price about Pistol!
Favourite factor: Only one (11/4) favourite has prevailed to date via nine renewals, whilst the other eight market leaders all failed to secure toteplacepot positions. I guess that the trend for favourites missing out on Placepot positions is likely to continue with just one horse making it through to the second leg in this win only event. With layers possible offering 2/1 the field here, bookmakers would price up the market leader missing out at around the 4/11 mark, unless joint favourites were returned in which case they would declare the bet as ‘void’!
Record of course winners in the opening event:
3/7--Morning Royalty (2 x heavy & soft)
2/8--Pistol (2 x heavy)
2.35: Eight-year-olds have won three of the six renewals thus far, and yet only Jane Walton is seemingly live to the 'edge' with her raider WESTEND THEATRE being the lone vintage representative this time around. That said, Sean Quinlan’s mount is also the only horse in the field without the benefit of a recent run which arguably negates the ‘advantage’. Nick Alexander has saddled three of his last five runners to winning effect whereby the 7/1 trade press quote about MASSINI’S LADY makes plenty of appeal, albeit I fully expect a couple of points to be clipped off that price by the time that flag fall arrives, especially as Nick’s six-year-old is one of just two runners on the card for the trainer. DICK DARSIE completes my trio against the remaining seven contenders.
Favourite factor: The six winners to date were returned at 25/1-9/1-9/1-15/2-13/2-11/4*, with favourites only snaring three toteplacepot positions thus far. Neither of last year’s 3/1 joint jollies could improve the ratio.
3.10: Six-year-olds have won eight of the eleven contests during the last thirteen years, the first of which was dear old Monet’s Garden back in 2004. Vintage representatives are even money to extend the trend before the form book is taken into account though with JOHANOS having been declared, the real ‘price’ is around the 1/5 mark taking the other pair into consideration, one of which is THOMAS DO who will probably be contesting the role of second favourite for the contest.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged in the last thirteen years during which time, ten jollies finished in the frame (exact science).
3.45: Sue Smith saddled the first winner of the race twelve months back and Sue is likely to have the favourite in the contest in course winner DARTFORD WARBLER (irrespective of what the trade press indicates), especially if Dick Darsie wins earlier on the card for the stable. MOSSIES WELL represents Sandy Thompson who has greeted three of his last eight runners in the area reserved for winning connections. As I continue the Carlisle analysis, I note that we made a small profit from Wednesday's sport from a Placepot perspective. From little acorns....with the Festival very much on the horizon now.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite duly obliged in what was the Placepot finale twelve months ago.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2--Grove Silver (soft)
2/2--Dartford Warbler (2 x good to soft)
4.20: With so little between the three runners on show in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, there seems little (or no) point in omitting any of the horses here, simply listing PRESENT TIMES, WAZOWSKI and CHARMANT in order of preference, though not enough to discard any one of the trio. Suffice to say that not even the mother-in-law (bless her) could prize money out of me from a ‘win perspective’.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners at 6/5 & 9/4.
4.55: After missing out on a Placepot dividend recently when the main two protagonists failed to deliver, these Hunter Chase events have returned to type of late whereby it looks safe enough to rely on the likes of LOCH BA and WICKLOW LAD in the ‘lucky last’. The latter named raider is the other Nick Alexander runner on the card I mentioned earlier, though the recent Wincanton winner LOCH BA should take the beating, even over this much tougher circuit.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Carlisle card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Carlisle card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Micky Hammond (0/13)
3—Donald McCain (9/35 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Nick Alexander (0/12)
2—Nigel Hawke (2/6 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Sue Smith (4/22 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Vic Thompson (0/2)
2—Evan Williams (0/1)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
36 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fontwell was abandoned
Newcastle had not begun to stage all weather racing this time last year
Southwell: £54.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced