Placepot pointers – Thursday May 12

YORK – MAY 12

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last five years:

2015: £354.20 (6 favourite: 1 winner - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,473.10 (6 favourite: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2013: £938.30 (6 favourite: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £50.10 (9 favourite: 2 winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £20.40 (6 favourite: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average dividend: £567.22 - Favourite stats: 33 in total - 8 winners - 9 placed - 16 unplaced

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 10 (Doctor Sardonicus), 8 (Fast Track) & 7 (Arctic Feeling)

Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (Journey) & 2 (Beautiful Romance)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Midterm), 11 (Victory Bond) & 12 (Wings Of Desire)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Always Smile), 9 (Convey) & 7 (Third Time Lucky)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Areen) & 7 (Exist)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Gulliver), 6 (Tafaakhor) & 5 (Masham Star)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10:  The seven winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1-10/1-6/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 12/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 87-89-95-89-96-92-100-104 (average of 94).  Seven of the eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, whilst three of the last six contests have been secured by seven-year-olds.  Putting all the stats and facts together produces an overnight short list of DOCTOR SARDONICUS, FAST TRACK and course and distance winner ARCTIC FEELING.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to BRANDON.

Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

5-3-10 (15 ran-good)

4-12-10-11 (19 ran-good to soft)

5-15-6 (15 ran-good)

5-15-14-2 (16 ran-good)

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)

4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-12 (15 ran-good)

1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

York record of course winners in the opening race:

1/1--Shamson

2/9--Arctic Feeling

1/3--Meadway

2/2--Thesme

2.40: Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 18 renewals of this contest, with five-year-olds having won the other five contests.  Leading ‘junior’ players this time should prove to be JOURNEY, BEAUTIFUL ROMANCE and KOORA, the trio being listed in order of preference.  I was sweet on both of John Gosden winners (via his only representatives on the day) and sure enough, JOURNEY ticks the boxes from my viewpoint on Wednesday.  A winner of two of her last three races and only beaten 'three parts' in a Group 1 event on the other assignment, JOURNEY should have too many guns for the opposition in this grade.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 19 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

3.15: Four of the last twelve winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby notwithstanding 33/1 winner Libertarian (2013) which finished finished second to Leader Of The Word at Epsom.  Throw in The Grey Gatsby (won the French Derby in 2014) and we can see why the 'Dante' remains a true Derby trial.  MIDTERM was not overly impressive when scoring as a warm favourite at Sandown on good to soft ground on his reappearance at Sandown, though Sir Michael's raider did enough to win.  Whether the Galileo colt can live up to some of the named horses above is another thing entirely, especially when compared to last year's winner Golden Horn but then again, John Gosden's subsequent Epsom Derby winner was a 4/1 chance twelve months ago when commencing a great run of victories.  VICTORY BOND and (to a fashion) CHOREOGRAPHER are outsiders to consider, notwithstanding the chance of John Gosden's pair, namely WINGS OF DESIRE and FOUNDATION.

Favourite factor:  Five of the last 17 market leaders have obliged, whilst ten of the eighteen jollies have reached the frame during the study period.

3.45: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last fifteen renewals, whilst six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.  I am surprised that just six four-year-old lines up this time around in a 19 runner contest (wake up trainers), with ALWAYS SMILE, CONVEY and THIRD TIME LUCKY being offered each way chances at the very least.  The trio are marginally listed in order of preference, whilst respecting the chances of HORS DE COMBAT and last year's winner ALFRED HUTCHINSON.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-6-17-7 (18 run-good)

1-4-3 (11 ran-good to soft)

16-14-11 (15 ran-good)

3-4-2 (11 ran-good)

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)

4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-8 (15 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)

12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)

11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)

6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

York record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2--Birdman

1/2--Master The World

2/15--Alfred Hutchinson

4.15: Seven different trainers have saddled the winner of this event which does not make good reading for this self confessed 'anorak' but moving upwards and onward in positive mode, I will opt for AREEN and EXIST on this occasion. ROSINA could outrun her odds at around the 25/1 mark.  I find the 15/8 quote about Easton Angle 'cramped' to say the least - win, lose or draw.

Favourite factor: Three of the eight favourites (via seven renewals) have finished in the money to date, statistics which include two (4/6 & 4/5) winners.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

11-5-8 (10 ran-good)

2-6 (6 ran-good)

2-8 (5 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/2--Gracious John

1/2--Areena

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1/1--Shadow Hunter

1/3--Rosina

4.50: Hugo Palmer suffered the frustration of a juvenile being withdrawn having 'played up' in the stalls on Wednesday, though GULLIVER might atone for that misfortune in the toteplacepot finale.  TAFAAKHOR and MASHAM STAR could prove to be the pick of the newcomers, though they might do well to push the selection right to the line at the business end of proceedings, given that they are giving away valuable experience.

Favourite factor: 16 of the last 18 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst eight favourites have obliged.  12 of the last 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

13-3-7 (12 ran-good)

1-6-8 (8 ran-good)

10-13-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (13 ran-good)

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)

6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)

6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (10-good to firm)

2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)

9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)

7-6 (7 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Thursday:

5--David O'Meara (12/86 at York last season before Wednesday's sport was contested)

4--Richard Fahey (6/130)

4--John Gosden (6/19)

4--David Simcock (1/9)

3--Richard Hannon (2/38)

3--Sir Michael Stoute (1/18)

2--Robert Cowell (0/7)

2--Michael Dods (1/19)

2--Robert Eddery (0/1)

2--Brian Ellison (3/44)

2--David Elsworth (1/11)

2--James Fanshawe (1/5)

2--Mark Johnston (6/52)

2--David Loughnane (--)

2--Aidan O'Brien (0/12)

2--Kevin Ryan (3/51)

2--Brian Smart (0/12)

2--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/20)

2--Roger Varian (0/13)

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

91 declared runners

 

General Overview:

Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year: 

Fontwell: £267.00 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

Newmarket: £145.50 (6 favourites - No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

Perth: £14.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced) - Lisa Harrison snared a 15/1 double last year - 3 runners declared

Salisbury: £101.80 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

York overview:

Juvenile records of represented trainers at York during the last five years for Thursday's 4.50 contest (before Wednesday's sport was contested):

2/36--Richard Hannon (Admiralty Arch & Tafaakhor)

No runners--Robert Eddery (Charlie Chaplin)

0/1--Hugo Palmer (Gulliver)

No runners--David Loughnane (Harome)

5/76--Mark Johnston (Masham Star)

13/157--Richard Fahey (Thornton)

0/4--Mark Easterby (Lou's Diamond)

1/3--Richard Guest (My Girl Maisie)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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