Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Thursday May 18

YORK – MAY 18

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last six years:

2016: £349.40 (10 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 6 unplaced)

2015: £354.20 (6 favourite: 1 winner - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,473.10 (6 favourite: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2013: £938.30 (6 favourite: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £50.10 (9 favourite: 2 winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £20.40 (6 favourite: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average dividend: £530.92 - Favourite stats: 43 in total - 10 winners - 11 placed - 22 unplaced

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 7 (Line Of Reason), 10 (Gamesome), 8 (East Street Revue) & 9 (Union Rose)

Leg 2 (2.55): 5 (So Mi Dar), 1 (Queen’s Trust) & 6 (The Black Princess)

Leg 3 (3.30): 3 (Cracksman) & 5 (Exemplar)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Here Comes When), 2 (Thikriyaat) & 8 (Victory Bond)

Leg 5 (4.35): 1 (Ardad) & 2 (Brian The Snail)

Leg 6 (5.05): 9 (Vj Day), 3 (Makadah) & 8 (Taifbalady)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Leading trainer on the Thursday of the Dante meeting during the last six years:

John Gosden (9/1, 4/1 & 7/2*) is the only trainer to have saddled more than two winners (three in total) on the middle day of the meeting

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Eight of the nine winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1-10/1-10/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 11/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 87-89-95-89-96-92-100-104-90 (average of 93).  Eight of the nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, whilst four of the last seven contests have been secured by seven-year-olds.  Putting all the stats and facts together produces a short list of LINE OF REASON, GAMESOME and EAST STREET REVUE.  The reserve nomination is awarded to UNION ROSE who will have ground conditions to suit, whilst also being the only runner in the field to race of an official mark of 93 on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

4-15-10-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-3-10 (15 ran-good)

4-12-10-11 (19 ran-good to soft)

5-15-6 (15 ran-good)

5-15-14-2 (16 ran-good)

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)

4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-12 (15 ran-good)

1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

York record of course winners in the opening race:

1/4—Duke Of Firenze (good to firm)

1/12—Line Of Reason (good to firm)

1/7—Robot Boy (good)

1/3—East Street Revbue (good)

1/4—Union Rose (soft)

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 19 renewals of this contest, with five-year-olds having won the other five contests.  Leading ‘junior’ players this time should prove to be SO MI DAR and QUEEN’S TRUST, though we cannot take too much for granted under the conditions which are far from ideal for top quality racing.  John Gosden’s record at the Dante Meeting has held up well in recent seasons and though he has a potential top notch raider in SO MI DAR, it could prove foolish to eliminate his ‘second string’ THE BLACK PRINCESS with moisture in the ground.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

York record of course winners in the opening race:

1/1—So Mi Dar (good to firm)

 

3.30: Four of the last 13 winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby notwithstanding 33/1 winner Libertarian (2013) which finished second to Leader Of The Word at Epsom.  Throw in The Grey Gatsby (won the French Derby in 2014) and we can see why the 'Dante' remains a true Derby trial.  John Gosden comes to the gig on a hat trick and in CRACKSMAN, John has a leading contender and no mistake.  John’s Frankel colt is only a (general) 7/1 chance for the Derby at the time of writing, though time could prove this to be his trip rather than the longer distance at Epsom.  Ground could be an issue today as well, though there are no such worries for the Aidan O’Brien team with EXEMPLAR, whereby Ryan Moore’s mount rates at the main threat according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor:  Five of the last 18 market leaders have obliged, whilst ten of the 19 jollies have reached the frame during the study period.

York record of course winners in the Dante Stakes:

1/1—Syphax (good to firm)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last sixteen renewals, whilst seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.  I am surprised that just 35% of the field is taken by vintage representatives accordingly, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be THIKRIYAAT and VICTORY BOND.  That said, readers with long memories will know that I have a soft spot for HERE COMES WHEN, even though Andrew Balding’s seven-year-old let us down at Kempton last back end after a fine run at Ascot on his previous assignment when so many traffic problems stopped him from getting in the mix at the business end of proceedings.  The rain has come in time and HERE COMES WHEN has to be given another chance, especially at around the 14/1 mark, being one of just five horses that hail from the superior sector of the handicap.  I was on at 16/1 yesterday and positive activity in the price this morning should be heeded.  I note that only Paddy Power are offering 14’s as I conclude this column for editing purposes.

Favourite factor: 15 of the 24 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (six winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

16-8-5-11 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-6-17-7 (18 run-good)

1-4-3 (11 ran-good to soft)

16-14-11 (15 ran-good)

3-4-2 (11 ran-good)

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)

4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-8 (15 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)

12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)

11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)

6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

York record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Firmament (good to firm)

1/1—White Lake (good)

1/8—Top Notch Tonto (good to soft)

1/4—Get Knotted (good to firm)

1/2—Cote D’Azur (good to firm)

1/3—Home Cummins (good)

 

4.35: As a seven length winner (biggest margin to date) under soft conditions at Catterick on his second start, BRIAN THE SNAIL has to enter the equation, albeit similar comments apply to ARDAD who spread-eagled the Windsor Castle field on soft ground last year.  Jumira Bridge is another fine prospect but I only have room for two horses in my permutation and my judgment is heavily influence by the conditions today.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites (via eight renewals) have finished in the money to date, statistics which include three (10/3-4/6-4/5) winners.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

4-10-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-5-8 (10 ran-good)

2-6 (6 ran-good)

2-8 (5 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the fifth contest:

 

5.05: There seems to be plenty of confidence behind VJ DAY at the time of writing, the Kevin Ryan team trying to make up for the disappointing run of Brando on the opening day of the meeting.  Hamdan Al Maktoum’s pair are rated as the main dangers, namely MAKANAH and TAIFBALADY.

Favourite factor: 16 of the last 19 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst eight favourites have obliged.  13 of the last 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

1-3-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

13-3-7 (12 ran-good)

1-6-8 (8 ran-good)

10-13-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (13 ran-good)

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)

6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)

6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (10-good to firm)

2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)

9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)

7-6 (7 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Thursday – followed by Wednesday ratios + winning starting prices:

7 runners—Richard Fahey (0/8 on the first day of the Dante meeting)

6—David O’Meara (1/7 – winner at 25/1)

5—Kevin Ryan (0/5)

4—John Gosden (1/1 – winner at 4/7*)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (No runners)

3—Charlie Appleby (0/4)

3—Tim Easterby (0/5)

3—Mark Johnston (0/4)

3—Paul Midgley (0/3)

3—Jedd O’Keeffe (No runners)

2—Andrew Balding (No runners)

2—David Elsworth (No runners)

2—Charlie Hills (0/1)

2—David Menuisier (0/1)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/3)

2—David Simcock (0/2)

2—Roger Varian (0/2)

+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

89 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £1,449.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Salisbury: £20.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Perth: £14.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Fontwell: £267.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Your first 30 days for just £1